关键词: 新疆, 不同海拔带, 气候变化, 回归分析, Mann-Kendall检验

Abstract: Global warming is one of the hotspots in global climate change research.Climate is an important part of nature,the basis for human survival and development,and an important condition for sustainable social development.But in recent years,with the intensification of human activities,the global climate is getting warmer.Located in arid and semiarid regions,Xinjiang,China,has complex topography and more obvious climate change.In recent years,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise,which has aroused widespread concern of domestic and foreign experts and scholars.Therefore,the discussion of the relationship between climate change and altitude in this region has important reference significance for global climate change research,as well as guiding significance for promoting sustainable development of local economy and rational utilization of resources.Based on the longterm temperature and precipitation data of 41 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1958 to 2017,and using ArcGIS,Matlab and other software,this paper uses regression analysis,climate trend method,MannKendall (M-K) trend analysis and mutation test and other methods to analyze the time and space characteristics of climate change in different altitude zones in the research area in the past 60 years.The results show that from 1958 to 2017,the average annual temperature and precipitation of Xinjiang show an upward trend,but the increase range has time and space differences.In terms of time,the average temperature increase range of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang (except winter),and the increase rate of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang (except summer).Spatially,the increase of temperature and precipitation in northern Xinjiang was greater than that in southern Xinjiang.The temperature of each station in the study area showed a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north,with the highest average annual temperature of the meteorological stations around the Tarim Basin in the south and low average annual temperature in the north.However,the range of temperature increase was not consistent.In general,the range of temperature increase in northern Xinjiang was larger than that in southern Xinjiang,showing regional differences.The average annual precipitation is high in the north and low in the south.The trend rate of temperature decreases with the increase of altitude,and the change rate of annual precipitation increases with the increase of altitude.The results showed that the average annual temperature in the middle and low altitude zone increased greatly,and the average annual precipitation in the middle and highaltitude zone increased greatly.To sum up,under the influence of global warming,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise in the past 60 years.In particular,northern Xinjiang is more sensitive to global warming than southern Xinjiang.

Key words: Xinjiang, different elevation zones, climate change, regression analysis, MannKendall test