近52a区域气候变化对濒危物种新疆北鲵潜在影响分析

干旱区地理 ›› 2016, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 58-66.

近52a区域气候变化对濒危物种新疆北鲵潜在影响分析

袁亮¹, 吴烨², 叶小芳¹, 古丽格娜·海力力³, 冯俊⁴, 王秀玲¹

1. 中亚区域跨境有害生物联合控制国际研究中心, 新疆特殊环境物种保护与调控生物学实验室, 新疆师范大学生命科学学院, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830054;
2. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
3. 新疆气象信息中心, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
4. 上海自然博物馆上海科技馆分馆, 上海 200041

收稿日期:2015-06-12 修回日期:2015-08-27 出版日期:2016-01-25
作者简介:袁亮(1980-),男,实验师,研究方向动物生态及保护生物学.Email:yuanliang_314@163.com
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2011211B17);新疆维吾尔自治区国际科技合作计划(20126009)资助;自治区教育厅普通本科高等学校重点实验室资助

Potential impact of regional climate change on endangered species Ranodon sibiricus in China over the past 52 years

YUAN Liang¹, WU Ye², YE Xiao-fang¹, HAILILI Guligena³, FENG Jun⁴, WANG Xiu-ling¹

1 International Research Center for the Collaborative Containment of Cross-Border Pests in Central Asia, Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Special Species Conservation and Regulatory Biology, College of Life Sciences, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China;
2 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China;
3 Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China;
4 Shanghai Natural History MuseumBranch of Shanghai Science & Technology Museum, Shanghai 200041, China

Received:2015-06-12 Revised:2015-08-27 Online:2016-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于新疆北鲵自然保护区周边7 个气象站1963-2014 年气温和降水数据,我们采用线性回归、累积距平、Mann-Kendall 突变和Morlet 小波分析对该区域气候变化特征进行分析,从气候学角度探讨区域气候变化对新疆北鲵生存环境及种群变化产生的潜在影响.结果表明:近52 a,该区域平均升温0.37 ℃·(10 a)^-1(r=0.632,P<0.001),高于世界和我国同期升温水平,显著增温发生自1998年,四季升温均显著,其中冬季升幅最大为0.47 ℃·(10 a)^-1(r=0.338,P=0.014);区域降水平均增加13.32 mm·(10 a)^-1(r=0.349,P=0.011),其中夏季和冬季降水贡献最大,分别为4.19 mm·(10a)^-1(r=0.281,P=0.043)和4.43 mm·(10 a)^-1(r=0.443,P=0.001),自2002 年起降水量显著增加(仅2008年不显著);区域气温具有2 a、7~8 a和15~16 a的弱变化周期,降水具有5 a和13~14 a的震荡周期.该区域近52 a气候与新疆整体气候变化趋势一致,偏"暖湿"化,但降水增加趋势弱于升温趋势.尤其是近15 a的持续增温加速了该区域冰川消融,降水量虽有增长,但增长趋势和幅度较弱,不足以促进冰川物质积累,冰川消融量大于积累量,冰川平衡线抬升,高海拔区地下水位下降,山间涌泉及溪流减少,北鲵赖以生存的湿地面积不断萎缩,成为其野外种群数量持续减少的主要原因.

关键词: 新疆北鲵, 自然保护区, 气候变化, 冰川, 种群

Abstract: Wild population of Ranodon sibiricus continued to decline in China over the last decade,mainly because of dwindling wetlands for their survival,and this situation may be closely related to regional climatic change. For cognizing the potential climate-change effects on Ranodon sibiricus,the paper obtained the temperature and precipitation monthly data from 7 meteorological stations around the Xinjiang salamander nature reserve from 1963 to 2014,and utilized linear regression equation,accumulated anomaly method,Morlet wavelet function and non-parametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) test to analyze climatic characteristics of this large-scale area. The results suggest that annual mean temperature and precipitation of this region are in an upward trend over the past fifty years which consistent with the overall climatic changes of Xinjiang province. Temperature has a upward trend with the rate of 0.37 ℃·(10 a)^-1(r=0.632,P<0.001),which is higher than the conditions of the world and China in the same period. The significance in temperature increase since 1998,with warming of the four seasons as well,of which the winter temperature increase rate was the largest,which was as high as 0.47 ℃·(10 a)^-1 (r=0.338,P=0.014). The trend of precipitation went up at the rate of 13.32 mm·(10 a)^-1(r=0.349,P=0.011), increased significantly since 2002 (except 2008). Summer and winter precipitation made a major contribution, which growth tendency is 4.19 mm·(10 a)^-1(r=0.281,P=0.043)and 4.43mm·(10 a)^-1(r=0.443,P=0.001), respectively. Morlet wavelet analysis showed that regional temperature charactered 2,7-8 and 15-16 years of weak changing period,and regional precipitation had 5 and 13-14 years cycle,and the cyclical swing was obvious from 1980s to 1990s,but became unapparent in recent 15 years. Nearly a decade,increases of summer precipitation which was mainly consisted with liquid precipitation rather than solid precipitation,leading to reduced glacial accumulation,coupled with year-round warming effect,accelerated the speed of the Dzungarian Alatau Mountain high altitude glaciers liquefaction. With rapidly uplifting of glacier equilibrium line altitude,lowering of groundwater level in high altitude area,the reduced mountain springs led to the wetland is shrinking and wild Ranodon sibiricus population continue to decline.

Key words: Ranodon scibiricus, nature reserve, climate change, glacier, population

中图分类号:

袁亮, 吴烨, 叶小芳, 古丽格娜·海力力, 冯俊, 王秀玲. 近52a区域气候变化对濒危物种新疆北鲵潜在影响分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(1): 58-66.

YUAN Liang, WU Ye, YE Xiao-fang, HAILILI Guligena, FENG Jun, WANG Xiu-ling. Potential impact of regional climate change on endangered species Ranodon sibiricus in China over the past 52 years[J]. , 2016, 39(1): 58-66.

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