新疆甜瓜生产格局及其贡献因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.631

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究新疆甜瓜生产变化与增产格局，促进欠发达地区农民增收、优化经济作物结构，以新疆为研究区，采用重心模型和标准差椭圆、迪氏对数指标分解法（LMDI）等方法，在县域尺度分析2000—2021年甜瓜生产格局与贡献因素。结果表明：（1） 2000—2021年新疆甜瓜生产总体呈现显著增长趋势，种植面积和产量呈现“M”型波动，单产在2015年达到峰值后有所下降，并进一步影响了产量的整体变化。（2）增产县域数量与减产县域数量的比值为1.39:1，新疆甜瓜生产的重心逐渐从西南向东北方向回迁，显示出明显的空间分布变化特征。（3）种植面积和单产是甜瓜产量变化的关键驱动因素，但在2015—2021年由于单产下降，其对产量的负贡献率达到-124.38%。

关键词: 甜瓜, 时空格局, 贡献因素, 新疆

Abstract:

This study explores the production dynamics and yield growth patterns of muskmelons in Xinjiang, China, to enhance farmers’ income in underdeveloped regions and optimize the structure of economic crops. Employing methods such as the gravity center model, standard deviational ellipse, and logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition, it examines muskmelon production patterns and contributory factors at the county level from 2000 to 2021. The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2021, muskmelon production in Xinjiang exhibited significant growth, with planting areas and total output following an “M-shaped” fluctuation trend. Yield per unit area peaked in 2015 but subsequently declined, exerting a notable impact on total production changes. (2) The ratio of counties with increased production to those with decreased production was 1.39:1. The production gravity center shifted gradually from the southwest to the northeast, highlighting significant spatial distribution changes. (3) Planting area and yield per unit area were the primary drivers of production changes. However, from 2015 to 2021, yield per unit area decline negatively impacted production, with a contribution rate of -124.38%.

Key words: muskmelon, spatiotemporal pattern, contribution factors, Xinjiang

李亮亮, 夏咏, 王福红, 郭冰心, 赵兰兰. 新疆甜瓜生产格局及其贡献因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(9): 1567-1577.

LI Liangliang, XIA Yong, WANG Fuhong, GUO Bingxin, ZHAO Lanlan. Muskmelon production pattern and its contributing factors in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1567-1577.

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年份	重心坐标		重心迁移			长轴/km	短轴/km	转角/(°)	面积/10⁵km²
年份	经度/E	纬度/N	方向	距离/km	速率/km∙a^-1	长轴/km	短轴/km	转角/(°)	面积/10⁵km²
2000	84°29′25″	42°03′28″	-	-	-	757.33	247.83	79.93	5.88
2010	80°37′22″	39°46′54″	西南	498.60	49.86	706.58	196.12	82.98	4.37
2015	81°27′16″	40°21′46″	东北	112.72	22.54	766.25	194.32	81.84	4.69
2021	82°44′41″	40°58′27″	东北	158.65	26.44	801.11	190.78	80.91	4.80

年份	增产量/10⁴ t	种植面积贡献量/10⁴ t	种植面积贡献率/%	单产贡献量/10⁴ t	单产贡献率/%	贡献类型
2000—2010	171.36	81.67	47.66	89.69	52.34	共同主导
2010—2015	66.30	-42.60	-64.25	108.90	164.25	单产主导
2015—2021	-66.41	82.60	-124.38	-149.01	224.38	单产主导
2000—2021	171.25	100.00	58.39	71.25	41.61	共同主导

分区	地州市	县域	增产量/t	产量变化幅度/%	种植面积贡献率/%	单产贡献率/%
南疆	喀什地区	伽师县	541950	652.56	86.42	13.58
		喀什市	6542	65420.00	51.32	48.84
		巴楚县	64074	701.41	61.88	38.12
		麦盖提县	51940	1545.83	62.97	37.03
		疏勒县	43326	763.59	58.71	41.29
	和田地区	和田县	30785	4629.32	11.54	88.46
	巴州	且末县	-4563	-67.23	148.63	-48.63
东疆	吐鲁番市	鄯善县	146530	226.19	83.82	16.18
		高昌区	137991	1314.33	93.80	6.20
		托克逊县	46447	187.29	73.55	26.45
	哈密市	伊吾县	66129	366.28	53.52	46.48
		伊州区	32879	254.92	71.31	28.69
北疆	阿勒泰地区	福海县	46570	887.05	77.63	22.37
	昌吉州	阜康市	-3805	-67.23	89.91	10.09
		奇台县	-6230	-98.28	94.58	5.42
		昌吉市	-16584	-59.06	101.84	-1.84
	伊犁州直	察布查尔锡伯自治县	1845	1476.00	60.14	39.86