黄河流域农业灰水足迹强度空间格局及演进趋势

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.473

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 农业水污染管理对于缓解水资源危机和促进区域可持续发展至关重要。以综合考虑农业灰水足迹和经济发展水平的农业灰水足迹强度（AGWFI）代表农业污染水平，测算了2012—2021年黄河流域112个地级市（州、盟）的AGWFI，全面分析了黄河流域AGWFI的空间格局和演进趋势，并采用分位数回归方法探讨了其影响因素。结果表明：（1） 2012—2021年黄河流域总体及上、中、下游地区AGWFI均显著降低，且上游地区AGWFI的下降幅度远大于中、下游地区。（2） 2012—2021年黄河流域AGWFI呈现西高东低的分布格局；流域总体及上、中、下游地区的AGWFI基尼系数都较大且呈上升趋势，区域内差异和区域间差异是其主要来源；AGWFI转移路径主要发生在相邻等级之间。（3）农业经济发展水平对黄河流域总体及上、中、下游地区AGWFI的影响均显著为负，而第一产业产值占比和农业水资源利用程度均具有显著正向作用。研究结果可为黄河流域制定针对性的农业水污染管理措施提供科学参考。

关键词: 农业灰水足迹强度, 空间格局, 演进趋势, 影响因素, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Effective management of agricultural water pollution is essential for addressing the water crisis and promoting sustainable regional development. This study introduces the agricultural grey water footprint intensity (AGWFI), which integrates the agricultural grey water footprint and local economic development levels to reflect agricultural pollution levels. It calculates the AGWFI for 112 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin of China from 2012 to 2021, thoroughly analyzing the spatial patterns and trends of AGWFI in the region. In addition, a quantile regression method is employed to examine the influencing factors. The findings reveal the following. (1) From 2012 to 2021, AGWFI significantly decreased across the Yellow River Basin and its upper, middle, and lower reaches, with a more significant reduction in the upper reaches compared to the middle and lower reaches. (2) The AGWFI displayed a distribution pattern characterized by high values in the west and low values in the east; the Gini coefficient for AGWFI in the basin and its upper, middle, and lower reaches was notably high and increasing, with intra- and inter-regional disparities as primary sources. Furthermore, the transfer of AGWFI primarily occurred between adjacent levels. (3) The level of agricultural economic development negatively affected the overall AGWFI in the Yellow River Basin and its upper, middle, and lower reaches. By contrast, the output share of the primary industry and the utilization rate of agricultural water resources positively influenced AGWFI. These research findings can serve as scientific references for the development of targeted agricultural water pollution management strategies in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: agricultural grey water footprint intensity, spatial pattern, evolution trend, influencing factors, Yellow River Basin

程鹏, 彭海洋, 侯丁榕, 孙明东, 宋晓伟. 黄河流域农业灰水足迹强度空间格局及演进趋势[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(7): 1185-1197.

CHENG Peng, PENG Haiyang, HOU Dingrong, SUN Mingdong, SONG Xiaowei. Spatial pattern and evolution trend of agricultural grey water footprint intensity in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1185-1197.

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影响因素	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
农业经济发展水平/10⁴元	0.456	0.214	0.063	1.448
农业水资源利用程度/%	109.606	255.217	0.213	2144.917
第一产业产值占比/%	11.859	7.134	0.641	32.810
粮食产量/10⁴ t	203.017	191.710	0.980	934.303
农作物播种面积/10⁴ hm²	50.838	40.675	0.399	202.420

地区	类型	低值	中值	较高值	高值
总体	低值	0.996	0.004	0.000	0.000
	中值	0.188	0.793	0.020	0.000
	较高值	0.004	0.205	0.757	0.034
	高值	0.000	0.000	0.130	0.870
上游	低值	0.990	0.010	0.000	0.000
	中值	0.215	0.763	0.022	0.000
	较高值	0.010	0.143	0.810	0.038
	高值	0.000	0.000	0.087	0.913
中游	低值	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	中值	0.189	0.784	0.027	0.000
	较高值	0.000	0.230	0.703	0.068
	高值	0.000	0.000	0.220	0.780
下游	低值	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	中值	0.157	0.831	0.011	0.000
	较高值	0.000	0.262	0.738	0.000
	高值	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.750

地区	分位点	农业经济发展水平	农业水资源利用程度	第一产业产值占比	粮食产量	农作物播种面积	常数项
总体	0.25	-0.817^***	0.045^***	3.493^***	0.000	-0.002	0.713^***
	0.50	-0.766^***	0.039^***	4.371^***	0.001	-0.004^**	0.990^***
	0.75	-0.932^***	0.020^**	6.045^***	0.001	-0.007^*	1.290^***
上游	0.25	-0.562^***	0.045^***	4.284^***	0.217	-0.005	0.629^***
	0.50	-0.530^***	0.028^***	5.298^***	1.657^**	-0.012^***	0.909^***
	0.75	1.088	-0.008	7.678^***	2.946^***	-0.033^***	1.314^***
中游	0.25	-0.846^***	0.076	0.986	-0.001	0.005^*	0.935^***
	0.50	-1.551^***	0.235^**	1.898^**	-0.002^***	0.009^***	1.298^***
	0.75	-1.848^***	0.236^***	2.711^***	-0.003^***	0.009^***	1.674^***
下游	0.25	-1.295^***	0.106^***	3.593^***	-0.001^***	0.003^***	0.893^***
	0.50	-1.285^***	0.134^***	2.703^***	0.000	0.000	1.063^***
	0.75	-1.790^***	0.105^**	3.157^***	0.000	-0.001	1.462^***

地区	变量	农业经济发展水平	农业水资源利用程度	第一产业产值占比	粮食产量	农作物播种面积	常数项
总体	系数	-1.126^***	-0.024	10.059^***	0.002^***	-0.024^***	1.470^***
总体	标准误	0.249	0.017	0.767	0.001	0.004	0.110
上游	系数	-0.260	-0.056^**	10.456^***	3.188^**	-0.042^***	1.769^***
上游	标准误	0.429	0.025	1.343	1.618	0.007	0.227
中游	系数	-1.505^***	0.052	2.239^***	-0.002^**	0.007^**	1.339^***
中游	标准误	0.175	0.087	0.614	0.001	0.003	0.065
下游	系数	-1.603^***	0.114^***	3.403^***	0.000	-0.001	1.204^***
下游	标准误	0.138	0.028	0.452	0.000	0.001	0.068