生态系统服务及其权衡/协同关系多情景模拟——以黄河流域山西段为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.471

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 黄河流域山西段是我国重要的生态屏障区，预测未来生态系统服务权衡和协同态势对于生态系统优化管理十分重要。基于此，采用系统动力学、斑块级土地利用变化模拟模型（PLUS）以及均方根偏差分析2030年自然发展、经济发展、生态保护、综合发展和碳达峰情景下生态系统服务（产水、土壤保持和固碳服务）供给量和需求量及权衡/协同关系。结果表明：（1）经济发展情景下产水服务供给量最高为73.27 mm，生态保护情景下产水和固碳服务需求量最低，分别为59.89 mm和14.92 t C·hm^-2。（2）生态保护情景下产水与土壤保持、产水与固碳服务供给权衡度最低，生态保护情景下产水与土壤保持、产水与固碳服务需求量协同强度均较低。（3）生态保护和碳达峰情景下产水服务与固碳服务供需比均大于0，各情景下土壤保持服务供需比相似。因此，黄河流域山西段未来发展中应优化土地利用方式，统筹生态安全和经济社会发展，完成“碳达峰”，为实现“碳中和”目标奠定基础。

关键词: 生态系统服务, 权衡/协同, 情景模拟, PLUS模型, 黄河流域山西段

Abstract:

The Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin is a crucial ecological barrier in China. Predicting future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services is essential for effective ecosystem management. This study employs system dynamics, a patch-level land use change simulation model, and root mean square deviation analysis to explore the trade-offs between the supply and demand of ecosystem services, including water yield, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration, across five scenarios for 2030: natural development, economic development, ecological protection, comprehensive development, and carbon peak scenario. The findings reveal the following. (1) Under the economic development scenario, the maximum water yield supply reaches 73.27 mm, whereas the demand for water yield and carbon sequestration is lowest in the ecological protection scenario, at 59.89 mm and 14.92 t C·hm^-2, respectively. (2) The trade-offs between water yield and soil conservation as well as between water yield and carbon sequestration are minimized in the ecological protection scenario, indicating low synergy intensity for both the supply and demand of these services. (3) In the ecological protection and carbon peak scenarios, the supply-demand ratio for water yield and carbon sequestration is positive, whereas the supply-demand ratios for soil conservation are consistent across all scenarios. Therefore, future development within the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin should prioritize optimizing land use, balancing ecological safety with economic and social progress, achieving a “carbon peak”, and establishing a foundation for the goal of “carbon neutrality”.

Key words: ecosystem services, trade-offs/synergies, scenario simulation, PLUS model, Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin

徐铭璟, 段宝玲, 冯强, 吕萌. 生态系统服务及其权衡/协同关系多情景模拟——以黄河流域山西段为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(7): 1206-1219.

XU Mingjing, DUAN Baoling, FENG Qiang, LYU Meng. Ecological services and their trade-offs/synergistic relationships in multi-scenario simulations: A case of the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1206-1219.

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数据类型	数据名称	年份	数据分辨率	数据来源
气象数据	降水、蒸散发	2000，2005，2010，2015，2020	1000 m×1000 m	国家地球系统科学数据中心（https://www.geodata.cn/aboutus.html）
土壤数据	土壤质地、土壤有机质	2010—2018	1000 m×1000 m	国家地球系统科学数据中心（https://www.geodata.cn/aboutus.html）
土地利用数据	土地利用数据	2000，2005，2010，2015，2020	1000 m×1000 m	资源环境科学与数据平台（https://www.resdc.cn/）
地形数据	数字高程模型	2020	30 m×30 m	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
植被数据	归一化植被指数	2000，2005，2010，2015，2020	1000 m×1000 m	国家地球系统科学数据中心（https://www.geodata.cn/aboutus.html）
社会经济数据	人口密度、国内生产总值	2000，2005，2010，2015，2020	1000 m×1000 m	资源环境科学与数据平台（https://www.resdc.cn/）
	人均收入、人均消费	2000，2005，2010，2015，2020	1000 m×1000 m	山西省统计局（http://tjj.shanxi.gov.cn/tjsj/tjnj/）
道路数据	行政边界、公路、区县城市道路	2020	-	资源环境科学与数据平台（https://www.resdc.cn/）