黄河流域典型绿洲城市扩张模拟及其生态韧性响应研究

摘要/Abstract

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参考文献 32

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.219

摘要：

建立良好的生态网络是提升城市生态韧性的重要途径。以黄河流域典型绿洲城市——银川市中心城区为例，基于PLUS模型模拟分析不透水面扩张下城市生态网络变化及其韧性响应特征。结果表明：（1）银川市中心城区不透水面发生快速扩张。2020年不透水面面积扩张为2000年的2.61倍，2030年不透水面面积将是2000年的3.24倍；不透水面空间格局由东西纵向“一”字形格局发展为向右倾倒的“T”字形格局，2030年这种横卧“T”字形格局得到进一步加强。（2）伴随着不透水面的扩张，银川市中心城区生态网络格局发生明显变化。2000年围绕中心城区边缘地带形成的单环状生态网络，2020年外环向西扩张，内环整体向北移动，在东北片区形成较为复杂的回路。模拟发现，2030年银川市中心城区生态网络将形成“川”字形结构。（3）生态网络结构韧性与功能韧性均有所提升。2000—2020年α、β、γ指数分别提升0.09、0.17、0.06，网络传播性和多样性分别提升0.08、0.29。到2030年，生态网络结构韧性和功能韧性将进一步提升，但整体水平仍然偏低。

关键词: 绿洲城市, 生态网络, 韧性, PLUS模型, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Establishing a robust ecological network is essential for enhancing urban ecological resilience. Using the central urban area of Yinchuan City, a representative oasis city in the Yellow River Basin of China, as a case study, changes in the urban ecological network and its resilience responses to impervious surface expansion were simulated and analyzed using the PLUS model. The results indicate the following: (1) Rapid expansion of impervious surfaces has occurred in central Yinchuan City. The impervious surface area in 2020 expanded to be 2.61 times larger than that in 2000, and by 2030, the area is projected to be 3.24 times larger than in 2000. The spatial pattern of impervious surfaces evolved from an east-west longitudinal “一” pattern to a rightward-tilting “T” pattern, with further strengthening of this horizontal “T” pattern by 2030. (2) With the expansion of impervious surfaces, the ecological network pattern in the central urban area has undergone substantial changes. In 2000, a single-ring ecological network was observed around the urban fringe. By 2020, the outer ring expanded westward, and the inner ring shifted northward, forming a more intricate circuit in the northeastern sector. Simulations predict that by 2030, the ecological network will exhibit a “川” structure. (3) Both structural and functional resilience of the ecological network have improved. Between 2000 and 2020, the α, β, and γ indices increased by 0.09, 0.17, and 0.06, respectively, while network dissemination and diversity rose by 0.08 and 0.29, respectively. By 2030, further enhancements in structural and functional resilience are expected, though the overall resilience level will remain low.

Key words: oasis city, ecological networks, resilience, PLUS model, Yellow River Basin

刘园园, 马彩虹, 马丽娅. 黄河流域典型绿洲城市扩张模拟及其生态韧性响应研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(3): 506-516.

LIU Yuanyuan, MA Caihong, MA Liya. Simulation of urban expansion and its response to ecological resilience of typical oases in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(3): 506-516.

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阻力因子	分级指标	阻力值	权重
土地利用	林地	10	0.2264
	草地	20
	水体	30
	耕地	70
	未利用地	100
	建设用地	150
NDVI	[-0.260, -0.038)	150	0.2854
	[-0.038, 0.112)	110
	[0.112, 0.197)	90
	[0.197, 0.289)	60
	[0.289, 0.401)	30
	[0.401, 0.609]	10
MSPA景观	核心区	10	0.1264
	桥接区	20
	环岛	30
	支线	40
	孤岛	50
	边缘区	70
	孔隙	90
	背景	100
与道路的距离/m	[0, 100)	200	0.0874
	[100, 200)	140
	[200, 300)	90
	[300, 400)	50
	[400, 500)	20
	≥500	10
距居民点距离/m	≥2000	10	0.120
	[1500, 2000)	20
	[1000, 1500)	40
	[500, 1000)	70
	<500	110
与水体的距离/m	[0, 100)	10	0.1544
	[100, 200)	20
	[200, 300)	40
	[300, 400)	70
	[400, 500)	110
	≥500	160

参数	2000—2005年	2005—2010年	2010—2015年	2015—2020年	2020—2030年
椭圆长轴增减/km	0.48	0.67	0.63	0.09	0.58
椭圆短轴增减/km	-0.12	0.18	-0.56	0.04	0.04
直线距离/m	940.57	125.19	446.14	911.66	200.21
重心迁移方向	东南方向	西南方向	西南方向	西北方向	东北方向

指标	2000年	2010年	2020年	2030年
α指数	0.14	0.16	0.23	0.55
β指数	1.21	1.26	1.38	1.89
γ指数	0.44	0.45	0.50	0.71

指标	2000年	2010年	2020年	2030年
网络传播性	0.32	0.37	0.40	0.41
网络多样性	1.25	1.52	1.54	1.58