内蒙古ERA5再分析降水数据性能评估与极端降水时空特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.607

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (9): 1418-1431.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.607

内蒙古ERA5再分析降水数据性能评估与极端降水时空特征分析

牛怡莹^1,^2,³(),李春兰⁴,王军^1,^2,³(),许瀚卿^1,^2,^3,⁵,刘青^1,^2,³

1.华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室，上海 200241
2.华东师范大学地理科学学院，上海 200241
3.华东师范大学上海城市公共安全研究中心，上海 200241
4.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院，上海 200241
5.华东师范大学崇明生态研究院，上海 202162

收稿日期:2022-11-17 修回日期:2023-02-09 出版日期:2023-09-25 发布日期:2023-09-28
通讯作者: 王军（1975-），男，博士，教授，主要从事城市灾害风险与公共安全管理研究. E-mail: jwang@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
作者简介:牛怡莹（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事多灾害综合风险评估和适应研究. E-mail: 1193418540@qq.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA105);华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室主任基金(KLGIS2022C01);国家自然科学基金项目(42001222);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLCS 2020-02)

Performance evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data and spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia

NIU Yiying^1,^2,³(),LI Chunlan⁴,WANG Jun^1,^2,³(),XU Hanqing^1,^2,^3,⁵,LIU Qing^1,^2,³

1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
2. School of Geographic Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
3. Research Center for Urban Public Security, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
4. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
5. Institute of Eco-Chongming, East China Normal University, Shanghai 202162, China

Received:2022-11-17 Revised:2023-02-09 Online:2023-09-25 Published:2023-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

ERA5是由欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts，ECWMF）推出的新一代再分析产品，可为地面观测站点稀少地区提供新的降水数据来源。基于2008—2017年内蒙古45个地面站点逐日降水数据，采用多项评价指标评估了ERA5再分析降水数据在多时空尺度上的精度，并结合13个极端降水指数和综合加权模型，采用Sen斜率法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了1981—2021年该地区极端降水及其危险性时空变化规律。结果表明：（1） ERA5能够较好地再现降水过程，与观测数据在月、季尺度上呈极强相关性（相关系数CC>0.85），在日尺度上表现为强相关（CC=0.68），在空间尺度上，ERA5数据在东部站点探测精度优于西部。（2）除湿日降水强度（SDII）、强降水总量（R95pTOT）以及持续干燥日数（CDD）外，其余极端降水指数在内蒙古均呈现下降趋势，湿日总降水量（PRCPTOT）下降趋势最快，为-15.74 mm·(10a)^-1。（3）极端降水指数在空间上呈现明显区域分异规律，极端降水在内蒙古西部表现为强度增加，在中部表现为频次、强度和持续时间均减少，在东部则表现为强度增加、频次和持续时间减少。（4）极端降水危险性指数在鄂尔多斯市、呼伦贝尔市、巴彦淖尔市和兴安盟等人口相对密集、经济发展较快的市（盟）存在高值中心，呈显著上升趋势，应给予重点关注。

关键词: ERA5, 降水, 精度评估, 极端降水指数, 内蒙古

Abstract:

ERA5 is a new generation reanalysis product launched by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts that can provide a new source of precipitation data for areas with few ground observation stations. Based on the daily precipitation data of 45 ground stations in Inner Mongolia, China from 2008 to 2017, we evaluated the accuracy of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data on multiple temporal and spatial scales using multiple evaluation indicators and applied a comprehensive weighting model to construct an extreme precipitation danger index by integrating 13 extreme precipitation indices. We then used principal component analysis, Sen’s slope method, and a Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation danger in the region from 1981 to 2021. The results show that: (1) ERA5 can reproduce the precipitation process better; the ERA5 precipitation reanalysis dataset performs better at a monthly time scale than at a daily time scale, and its accuracy is highest in summer and lowest in winter. ERA5 precipitation data are highly correlated with observed data at monthly and seasonal scales (correlation coefficient>0.85) and are strongly correlated with observed data at a daily scale (correlation coefficient=0.68). The detection accuracy of ERA5 data is better for the eastern stations than for the western stations. (2) Extreme precipitation indices showed a downward trend except for daily wet precipitation intensity, total heavy precipitation, and continuous dry days. The annual total wet day precipitation declined fastest, and the Sen’s slope value was -15.74 mm·(10a)^-1. (3) The extreme precipitation indices show clear regional spatial differentiation. Extreme precipitation shows an increase in intensity in western Inner Mongolia, a decrease in frequency, intensity, and duration in mid-Inner Mongolia, and an increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in eastern Inner Mongolia. (4) The extreme precipitation danger index has high central values and shows significant upward trends in Ordos City, Hulun Buir City, Bayannur City, Hinggan League, and other cities/leagues with relatively dense populations and rapid economic development and should therefore receive special attention. The results of this study can facilitate the discovery of better datasets for the analysis of climate factors in Inner Mongolia, and the study provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of climate change adaptation measures and future climate prediction.

Key words: ERA5, precipitation, accuracy evaluation, extreme precipitation index, Inner Mongolia

牛怡莹, 李春兰, 王军, 许瀚卿, 刘青. 内蒙古ERA5再分析降水数据性能评估与极端降水时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(9): 1418-1431.

NIU Yiying, LI Chunlan, WANG Jun, XU Hanqing, LIU Qing. Performance evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data and spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1418-1431.

图/表 12

图1

表1

评价指标描述"

评价指标	计算公式	最优值
相关系数（CC）	$∑ i = 1 n (G i - G -) (S i - S -) ∑ i = 1 n (G i - G -) 2 × ∑ i = 1 n (S i - S -) 2$	1
相对偏差（BIAS）/%	$∑ i = 1 n (S i - G i) ∑ i = 1 n G i × 100 %$	0
均方根误差（RMSE）/mm	$1 n ∑ i = 1 n (S i - G i) 2$	0
命中率（POD）	$H H + M$	1
误报率（FAR）	$F H + F$	0
关键成功指数（CSI）	$H H + F + M$	1

表1

表2

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

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指数	指标	中文名称	定义	单位	权重
频率指数	R10	中雨天数	一年内日降水量≥10 mm的天数	d	0.0690
	R20	暴雨天数	一年内日降水量≥20 mm的天数	d	0.0845
	R30	特大暴雨日数	一年内日降水量≥30 mm的天数	d	0.0868
强度指数	SDII	湿日降水强度	年总降水量与日降水量≥1 mm天数的比值	mm·d^-1	0.0897
	R95p	强降水量	一年内日降水量>第95%分位值的降水量之和	mm	0.0909
	R99p	极强降水量	一年内日降水量>第99%分位值的降水量之和	mm	0.0962
	PRCPTOT	湿日总降水量	一年内日降水量>1 mm的降水量总和	mm	0.0700
	R95pTOT	强降水总量	R95p与PRCPTOT的比值	%	0.0916
	Rx1day	1 d最大降水量	一年内最大日降水量	mm	0.0950
	Rx5day	5 d最大总降水量	一年内连续5 d最大累积降水量	mm	0.0919
	Rx7day	7 d最大总降水量	一年内连续7 d最大累积降水量	mm	0.0904
持续时间指数	CWD	持续湿润日数	一年内日降水量≥1 mm的最长持续天数	d	0.0340
持续时间指数	CDD	持续干燥日数	一年内日降水量<1 mm的最长持续天数	d	0.0100

内蒙古ERA5再分析降水数据性能评估与极端降水时空特征分析

Performance evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data and spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia

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