近60a祁连山极端降水变化研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用祁连山24个气象台站1961-2017年逐日降水资料,选用12个极端降水指数,采用线性趋势法、Pearson相关性分析法等,分析了祁连山极端降水指数的时空变化特征,并分析了海拔、大气环流指数对祁连山极端降水指数时空变化的影响机制。结果表明：（1）祁连山、河西内陆河流域、柴达木内陆河流域、黄河流域（外流）连续干旱日数（CDD）呈显著减少趋势,连续湿润日数（CWD）呈增加趋势,空间分布表现出东西差异;其他极端降水指数总体呈增加趋势,空间分布呈现出祁连山中部增加幅度较大,向外围呈环状递减的趋势。（2）降水总量增加的主要原因在于雨日天数显著增加,中雨日数的天数也显著增大,这种降水分配模式将增大极端降水事件发生的概率,进一步证实祁连山降水活动增强,极端降水频度更高,持续时间更短,降水向降雨日数更多、时间更集中的方向发展。极端降水空间分异表现在极端降水强度的降低幅度随海拔的升高而减少,高海拔区降水量和降水日数增加更为明显,CDD的减少主要发生在高海拔区。（3）在所选的11个大气环流异常因子中,祁连山极端降水受北大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）指数影响最大,北极涛动（AO）指数与祁连山极端降水的关系最为复杂,大西洋海平面表面温度指数越大、南海夏季风（SCSSMI）指数、南美夏季风（SAMSMI）指数越低则流域发生多雨、洪涝现象的概率越大,反之发生少雨现象的概率越大。

关键词: 祁连山, 气候变化, 极端降水指数

Abstract:

Using daily precipitation data from 24 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains of China from 1961 to 2017, 12 extreme precipitation indices were selected. The linear trend method, Pearson correlation technique, etc. were employed to analyze the temporal and spatial properties of extreme precipitation indices in the Qilian Mountains, and the impact mechanism of altitude with general circulation index on the temporal and spatial variation of extreme precipitation index was evaluated in the Qilian Mountains. (1) The results show that the continuous dry days of the Qilian Mountains, the Hexi inland river basin, the Qaidam inland river basin, and the Yellow River Basin (outflow) exhibited a significant decreasing trend, whereas the continuous wet days exhibited an increasing trend, and the spatial distribution indicated east-west differences. Other extreme precipitation indices exhibited an overall rising trend. The spatial distribution is central in the Qilian Mountains as the area with a larger increase range, and it decreases toward the outer ring. (2) The major reason for the rise in total precipitation is that the number of rainy and moderately rainy days has considerably increased. This precipitation distribution model will increase the probability of intense precipitation events, further confirming that the Qilian Mountains have increased precipitation activities, with a higher frequency and shorter duration of extreme precipitation, as well as the development trend of precipitation in the course of more rainfall days and more concentrated time. The drop in extreme precipitation intensity decreases with the increase in altitude, indicating that extreme precipitation is spatially differentiated. In high-altitude areas, the increase in precipitation and precipitation day is more evident and the decrease in the number of consecutive dry days mainly occurs in high-altitude areas. (3) Among the 11 selected atmospheric circulation anomalies, extreme precipitation in the Qilian Mountains is mainly affected by the AMO index, and the association between AO index and intense precipitation in the Qilian Mountains is the most complicated. The higher the Atlantic sea-level surface temperature index, the lower are the SCSSMI and SAMSMI indices, and the greater is the probability of excess rain and flooding; on the contrary, the probability of less rain is higher.

Key words: Qilian Mountains, climate change, extreme precipitation indices

温煜华,吕越敏,李宗省. 近60a祁连山极端降水变化研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1199-1212.

WEN Yuhua,LYU Yuemin,LI Zongxing. Changes of extreme precipitation in Qilian Mountains in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1199-1212.

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流域	台站编号	台站名称	纬度/N	经度/E	海拔/m
河西内陆河流域	52418	敦煌	40°05′	94°24′	1139.0
河西内陆河流域	52424	安西	40°19′	95°27′	1170.9
	52436	玉门镇	40°09′	97°01′	1526.0
	52447	金塔	40°00′	98°32′	1270.5
	52533	酒泉	39°27′	98°17′	1477.2
	52546	高台	39°13′	99°30′	1332.2
	52652	张掖	39°03′	100°10′	1461.1
	52661	山丹	38°28′	101°03′	1764.6
	52674	永昌	38°08′	101°34′	1976.9
	52679	武威	37°33′	102°24′	1531.5
	52797	景泰	37°06′	104°01′	1630.9
	52657	祁连	38°06′	100°09′	2787.4
	52633	托勒	38°28′	98°15′	3367.0
柴达木内陆河流域	52602	冷湖	38°27′	93°12′	2770.0
柴达木内陆河流域	52737	德令哈	37°13′	97°13′	2981.5
	52856	共和	36°09′	100°22′	2835.0
	52868	贵德	36°00′	101°13′	2237.1
	52713	大柴旦	37°30′	95°13′	3173.2
	52754	刚察	37°12′	100°04′	3301.5
	52842	茶卡	36°28′	99°03′	3087.6
黄河流域 (外流)	52876	民和	36°12′	102°30′	1813.9
黄河流域 (外流)	52765	门源	37°13′	101°22′	2850.0
	52866	西宁	36°26′	101°27′	2295.2
	52645	野牛沟	38°15′	99°21′	3320.0

指数代码	名称	定义	单位
PRCPTOT	雨日降水总量	日降水量大于1 mm的总降水量	mm
SDII	雨日降水强度	日降水量大于1 mm雨日的平均雨量	mm·d^-1
RX1DAY	单日最大降水量	年内单日最大降水量	mm
RX5DAY	五日最大降水量	年内连续五日最大降水量	mm
R95	极端降水量	日降水量大于第95个百分位的雨日降水总量	mm
R99	非常极端降水量	日降水量大于第99个百分位的雨日降水总量	mm
CDD	连续干旱日数	日降水量小于1 mm的连续日数	d
CWD	连续湿润日数	日降水量大于1 mm的连续日数	d
R10MM	日降水大于10 mm日数	日降水量大于10 mm的日数	d
R20MM	日降水大于20 mm日数	日降水量大于20 mm的日数	d
R25MM	日降水大于25 mm日数	日降水量大于25 mm的日数	d
\	雨日日数	日降水量大于1 mm的日数	d

区域	PRCPTOT		SDII		RX1DAY		RX5DAY		R95		R99
区域	变化速率 /mm·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /mm·(d·10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /mm·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /mm·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /mm·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /mm·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%
祁连山	13.86^*	41.8	-0.01	3.8	0.76^*	27.2	1.37^*	31.9	4.10^*	72.8	1.29^*	66.1
河西内陆河流域	10.51^*	47.8	-0.02	3.8	0.81^*	31.1	1.11^*	33.0	3.60^*	92.6	1.10^*	78.2
柴达木内陆河流域	14.05^*	43.3	0.01	8.3	0.75^*	33.5	1.97^*	44.0	4.48^*	97.7	1.60^*	153.5
黄河流域（外流）	24.40^*	33.6	-0.03	-2.4	0.63	12.5	1.17	17.4	5.06^*	34.4	1.39	6.5
区域	CDD		CWD		R10MM		R20MM		R25MM		雨日日数
区域	变化速率 /d·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /d·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /d·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /d·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /d·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%	变化速率 /d·(10a)^-1	变化幅度/%
祁连山	-26.35^*	-49.0	0.06	12.6	0.40^*	47.0	0.09^*	62.9	0.05^*	64.6	5.79^*	43.5
河西内陆河流域	-26.74^*	-50.2	0.05	15.7	0.28^*	57.4	0.07^*	93.2	0.04^*	87.5	4.00^*	47.6
柴达木内陆河流域	-24.42^*	-42.0	0.10	14.6	0.43^*	48.4	0.11^*	89.2	0.05^*	125.0	4.20^*	37.4
黄河流域（外流）	-28.43^*	-59.0	0.01	5.3	0.75^*	35.8	0.12	26.0	0.06	18.6	7.93^*	42.2

区域	PRCPTOT	SDII	RX1DAY	RX5DAY	R95	R99
祁连山	0.74^*	0.48^*	0.43^*	0.60^*	0.68^*	0.55^*
河西内陆河流域	0.98^*	0.68^*	0.65^*	0.69^*	0.96^*	0.83^*
柴达木内陆河流域	0.65	0.20	0.80^*	0.66	0.73	0.60
黄河流域(外流)	0.99^*	0.71	0.76	0.93	0.98^*	0.81
区域	CDD	CWD	R10MM	R20MM	R25MM	雨日日数
祁连山	-0.24	0.24	0.73^*	0.64^*	0.56^*	0.66^*
河西内陆河流域	-0.19	0.50	0.95^*	0.91^*	0.86^*	0.95^*
柴达木内陆河流域	-0.77^*	0.57	0.53	0.63	0.54	0.82^*
黄河流域(外流)	-0.99^*	-0.75	0.96^*	0.93	0.86	0.99^*

海拔/m	PRCPTOT /mm	SDII /mm·d^-1	RX1DAY /mm	RX5DAY /mm	R95 /mm	R99 /mm
1000~1500	4.29^*	-0.04	0.40	0.82	0.63	-0.03
1500~2000	7.47^*	-0.07	0.70	0.56	2.36	-0.16
2000~2500	11.56^*	0.02	0.11	0.60	1.42	0.71
2500~3000	19.36^*	0.01	0.93^*	2.04^*	5.17^*	2.29^*
3000~3500	28.41^*	0.05	1.34^*	2.64^*	10.35^*	3.86^*
海拔/m	CDD /d	CWD /d	R10MM /d	R20MM /d	R25MM /d	雨日日数 /d
1000~1500	-26.94^*	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.01	2.77^*
1500~2000	-24.83^*	0.00	0.13	0.05	0.02	3.78^*
2000~2500	-15.98^*	0.06	0.46	0.04	0.05	3.59^*
2500~3000	-27.04^*	0.11	0.61^*	0.12^*	0.06	5.34^*
3000~3500	-30.89^*	0.08	0.84^*	0.25^*	0.12^*	7.99^*