Abstract: Land use/cover change (LUCC)is one of the major driving factors that changethe hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying their respective influence is of great importance for water resources management and socioeconomic activities,so we apply the widely used MIKE SHE model to the upper and middle reaches of the Tarim River Basin. In this paper,the MIKE SHE model simulates the annual runoff in the Tarim during 2005-2015,and 2005-2010 is the calibration period and 2011-2015 is the validation period. The reliability of the MIKE SHE model was corroborated in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)and the correlation coefficient (R). The results confirmed that MIKE SHE was a powerful and accurate model for studying the hydrological change in the Tarim River Basin. The data of the NSE and R in the calibration period were 0.86,0.93 respectively,and 0.83,0.92 in the validation period,respectively. To investigate the impact of LUCC (land use and land cover change)on the stream flow,we firstly use two observed land use maps from 1980 and 2015 that are based on resource and environment science data center of Chinese Academy of Sciences. In the same meteorological condition,and compared with the land use state in 1998,we found that the surface runoff in the Tarim River Basin had a decreasing trend in 2015. In order to further analyze the influence of different land-use scenarios on daily stream flow,we designed three scenarios:grassland,woodland and cultivated land. We found that daily stream flow of grassland scenario was the largest (147.56 m³·s^-1)among the three scenarios,while the cultivated land scenario had the medium daily stream flow (144.72 m³·s^-1),and the woodland scenario had the smallest daily stream flow (141.80 m³·s^-1). The research results have important significance for planning the land use and controlling the hydrological extremes.

Key words: MIKE SHE model, land use change, hydrological responses, Tarim River Basin