甘肃省产业转型升级测度及其经济效应

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the statistical data from 2004 to 2014, this paper made a quantitative analysis of the direction, speed and optimization of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province by using indices including the lead coefficient of industrial structure, Lilien index, More structural change and deviation coefficient of employment structure. Then the Shift-share model was used to decompose the change of industrial structure from the factor productivity to measure the economic growth effect of industrial transformation and upgrading. The results show as follows:(1) The main features of evolution of industrial structure in Gansu Province were that the primary industry kept a steady decrease trend in proportion, while the secondary industry and the tertiary industry kept an obvious increase trend in proportion. The "second-tertiary-primary" industrial evolution pattern dominated by the secondary industry had been steadily achieved.(2) During the period 2004-2014, the lead coefficients of industrial structure for primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry were -1.379, 1.115 and 1.901, respectively, indicating that the primary industry had always been lagging behind, while the secondary and tertiary industries had faster development. In addition, each industry developed at different speeds at different stages.(3) Gansu Province experienced a rapid industrial transformation and upgrading from 2004 to 2014, with the Lilien index being 0.087 1 and Vector angle being 4.364 6, but there was a significant slowdown in the speed of transformation and upgrading. The trend of service oriented economic development became more and more evident since 2010.(4) In the last ten years, the economic effect of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province was mainly resulted from the technological progress of the industry(The internal growth effect of industry). Structure effect had less contribution to economic growth, but would play an important role in the economic growth in the future. Especially for the tertiary industry, the total structure effect was 9.0213%, which meant transformation and upgrading of tertiary industries had increment effects on economic growth. However, the structure effect of second industry was negative due to the deviation of industrial structure of employment, indicating that the employment structure lagged behind the industrial structure. There was still a huge room for improving the productivity through the optimal allocation of labor factor, as well as the structural optimization of industries in the future. By decomposing the contribution of industrial transformation and upgrading to economic growth, this study helps take an insight into the relationship between industrial transformation and upgrading and economic growth, and finds out the key driving force for economic growth and the direction for industrial restructure in Gansu Province.

Key words: industrial transformation and upgrading, Shift-share model, economic effect, Gansu Province

CLC Number:

F269.24

CHEN Qiang-qiang, BING Fang, DOU Xue-cheng, LIU Jin-wen. Measurement and economic effects of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province[J]., 2016, 39(6): 1365-1372.

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Measurement and economic effects of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province

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