Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate aspects of the plant production and animal husbandry by employing the emission factor method to estimate agricultural carbon emissions and analyze their temporal and spatial variation features in Gansu Province, China, from 2000 to 2020. The factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions were investigated based on the stochastic impacts by regression on PAT (STIRPAT) model. Subsequently, corresponding countermeasures were proposed in this study. The results indicated the following: (1) The CO₂-e emissions from the agricultural sector of Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020 showed an increasing-decreasing-increasing trend; the emissions reached a peak in 2015, which was estimated to be 2320.41×10⁴ t. Additionally, from 2018 onward, the emissions increased annually to 2290.69×10⁴ t in 2020. (2) In Gansu Province’s agricultural CO₂-e emission structure, the plant production accounted for 35% and animal husbandry accounted for 65% of the total emissions. Among the various carbon sources, livestock and poultry gastrointestinal fermentation contributed the most to total agricultural carbon emissions, followed by fertilizer and animal manure management. Among the major livestock and poultry, beef cattle farming contributed the most to agricultural carbon emissions. And then were sheep, goats, cows, and pigs farming, and poultry farming contributed the least to agricultural carbon emissions. (3) Rural population, per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of rural residents, total power of agricultural machinery, proportion of agricultural added value in the province’s GDP, investment in fixed assets of rural households, application of agricultural scientific and technological achievements, and investment in agricultural science and technology were the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province. The influence indices of these factors for agricultural carbon emissions were -0.017, 0.026, 0.020, 0.038, -0.025, 0.031, -0.017, and 0.016, respectively. To effectively control agricultural carbon emissions, appropriate strategies regarding the following should be adopted: improving the resource utilization efficiency of the plant production and soil carbon sequestration capacity industriously; strengthening the source reduction, process control, and end treatment of animal husbandry; reducing the dependence of farm machinery on oil to the maximum possible extent; promoting the use of clean energy in rural areas effectively; and increasing the research, development, and application of low-carbon agricultural technologies.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, STIRPAT model, plant production, animal husbandry, Gansu Province