我国农业旱灾脆弱性与农村贫困的灰色关联分析

Abstract

Abstract: Agricultural drought disaster is closely related to the rural poor. Draw lessons from the existing research results, this paper applied grey correlation model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between agricultural drought and rural poverty in China, so as to give suggestions to help effectively reduce the vulnerability of hazard-affected body of agricultural drought, improve the ability of hazard-affected body against drought disasters, stabilize and increase farmers' income, and prevent poverty from drought disaster. Based on the data availability and degree of detail, we selected 9 agricultural drought vulnerability factors as the subsequence and the rural poverty as mother sequence. By using the grey correlation model, the relationship between rural poverty and each agricultural drought vulnerability factor was analyzed. Results show that:from high to low, the influence of each agricultural drought vulnerability factor on rural poverty ranked as:the first industry employment population, agricultural GDP, rural engel's coefficient, the farmers' average annual salary income, total power of agricultural machinery, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigation area, applying fertilizer content, and finance support agriculture. According to the results, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions as follows:(1) vigorously develop modern agriculture, increase farmers' non-agricultural income, and reduce farmers' dependence on agriculture;(2) give play to the leading role of science and technology innovation, and improve the agricultural science and technology contribution rate;(3) multi-channel increase agricultural investment to strengthen the construction of rural water infrastructure;(4) strengthen the agricultural supply side structural reform, improve the quality and efficiency of supply. The innovation point of this paper is the correlation analysis of the agricultural drought disaster and rural poverty. Previous studies mainly focused on qualitative analysis, and here we made a precise quantitative analysis by using grey correlation model. With a variety of dimensionless processing data, this method was used to calculate the correlation degree and relational sequence between each agricultural drought vulnerability factor and rural poverty; and by testing the reasonable degree of the relational sequences obtain from a variety of methods, and micro adjusting the rational degree model of relational sequences, this method can better reflect the sequences difference. This paper has certain theoretical guidance meaning and decision-making reference value to our country agriculture sustainable development and the realization of the comprehensive well-off.

Key words: the drought vulnerability, rural poverty, grey correlation analysis

CLC Number:

F304.8

GU Hong-bo, MA Xiang-lin. Agricultural drought vulnerability and grey correlation analysis of rural poverty[J]., 2016, 39(6): 1358-1364.

References

[1] 谷洪波, 刘芷妤. 湖南农业干旱灾害的时空分布、社会经济影响及形成机理探究[J]. 山西农业大学学报(社科版), 2015, 14(11):1081-1085. [GU Hongbo, LIU Zhiyu, The spatial-temporal distribution, socio-economic effects and causes of agricultural drought disasters in Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Social Science Edition), 2015, 14(11):1081-1085.]

[2] 刘姣娜. 康保县农业旱灾脆弱性评价[D]. 北京:首都师范大学, 2013.[LIU Jiaona. Assessment on the vulnerability of agriculture to drought in Kangbao County[D]. Beijing:Capital Normal University, 2013.]

[3] BURTON I. The environment as hazard[M]. New York:Guilford Press, 1993.

[4] TIMMERMAN P. Vulnerability, resilience and the collapse of society:a review of models and possible climatic applications[D]. Toronto, Canada:Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, 1981.

[5] KATES R W. The interaction of climate and society[M]//Climate Impact Assessment. Chichester:John Wiley, 1985:3-36..

[6] 章国材. 自然灾害风险评估与区划原理和方法[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2014. [ZHANG Guocai. The risk assessment and zoning of natural disaster:principles and methods[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2014.]

[7] 林洪涛, 孙浩进. 黑龙江省农村贫困地区农民的脆弱性风险及对策[J]. 东北农业大学学报:社会科学版, 2006, 4(1):17-18.[LIN Hongtao, SUN Haojin. Fragility risk and countermeasure to peasants of poverty-stricken area of countryside of Heilongjiang[J]. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University:Social Science Edition, 2006, 4(1):17-18.]

[8] 杨龙, 汪三贵. 贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析[J]. 中国人口资源与环境, 2015,(10):1002-2104. [YANG Long, WANG Sangui. Households' vulnerability and determinants analysis in poor areas[J]. China Population Resources and Environment, 2015,(10):1002-2104.]

[9] KHANDLHELA M, MAY J. Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding in the Limpopo Province, South Africa[J]. Nat Hazards, 2006, 39(2):275-287.

[10] DONALD A. WILHITE M D. SVOBODA M J. Understanding the complex impacts of drought:a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness[J]. Water Resource Manage, 2007, 21(5):763-774.

[11] LUERS A L, LOBELL D B, SKLAR L S, et al. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13(4):255-267.

[12] CALVO C. Vulnerability to multidimensional poverty:Peru, 1998-2002[J]. World Development, 2008, 36(6):1011-1020.

[13] SHAHID S, BEHRAWAN H. Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh[J]. Nat Hazards, 2008, 46(3):391-413.

[14] 韩峥.脆弱性与农村贫困[J]. 农业经济问题, 2004,(10):8-12.[HAN Zheng. Fragility and rural poverty[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2004,(10):8-12.]

[15] 姜江, 马建勇, 许吟隆. 农业灾害脆弱性与农村贫困灰色关联分析——以宁夏地区为例[J]. 安徽农业科学2012, 40(9):5308-5437. [JIANG Jiang, MA Jianyong, XU Yinlong. Grey relational analysis on agriculture disaster vulnerability and rural poverty:Ningxia Province[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Science, 2012, 40(9):5308-5437.]

[16] 丁文广, 冶伟峰, 米璇, 等. 甘肃省不同地理区域灾害与贫困耦合关系量化研究[J]. 经济地理, 2013, 33(3):28-35. [DING Wenguang, YE Weifeng, MI Xuan, et al. A quantitative research of coupled relationship between disasters and poverty in different geographic regions in Gansu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(3):28-35.]

[17] 胡颖颖, 玉米提, 哈力克, 等. 新疆2001-2010年农业气候干旱脆弱性分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2014, 34(1):254-259. [HU Yingying, Yumiti, Halike, et al. Vulnerability to drought on agriculture in Xinjiang during 2001-2010[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2014, 34(1):254-259.]

[18] 刘小鹏, 苏晓芳, 王亚娟, 等. 空间贫困研究及其对我国贫困地理研究的启示[J]. 干旱区地理, 2014, 37(1):144-152. [LIU Xiaopeng, SU Xiaofang, WANG Yajuan, et al. Review on spatial poverty and deprivation and its enlightenments to poverty geography studies in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014, 37(1):144-152.]

[19] 史耀斌. 推广PPP模式是供给侧改革的重要内容[J]. 中国经济周刊, 2015,(50):12-15. [SHI Yaobin. Promotion of PPP mode is the important content of the supply-side reform[J]. China Economic Weekly, 2015,(50):12-15.]

Agricultural drought vulnerability and grey correlation analysis of rural poverty

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 2

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	LI Yuxin,XUE Dongqian,MA Beibei,DONG Chaoyang. Spatial evolution and remote characteristics of rural poverty in the Loess Plateau, China [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(2): 534-543.
[2]	GU Hong-bo, MA Xiang-lin. Agricultural drought vulnerability and grey correlation analysis of rural poverty [J]. , 2016, 39(6): 1358-1364.