基于PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型的天山北坡城市群生境质量演化与模拟

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.538

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the evolution trend and influencing factors of habitat quality in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is crucial for regional ecological conservation and the high-quality development of the Silk Road Economic core area. Utilizing land use data from six periods between 2000 and 2023, this study used the PLUS and InVEST models to evaluate the evolution of habitat quality and predict scenarios for 2035. The results reveal the following: (1) From 2000 to 2023, areas of cultivated and construction land consistently increased, with the most significant conversions occurring between grassland and unused land. Economic factors dominated the expansion of cultivated and construction land, whereas natural factors drove changes in forest and grassland areas. (2) Habitat quality exhibited a U-shaped trend from 2000 to 2023, characterized by low to moderately high-quality levels. Temperature, precipitation, and transportation significantly affected changes in habitat quality. (3) Habitat is expected to improve under all four prediction scenarios by 2035, with the most notable improvement occurring in the ecological protection scenario. This research provides a scientific basis for developing ecological protection policies and promoting the rational use of land resources in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.

Key words: land use, habitat quality, PLUS model, InVEST model, the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

SHI Tiange, YANG Chenliang, SHI Hui, TONG Yanjun. Evolution and simulation of habitat quality in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains based on the PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(10): 2042-2053.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 29

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数据类型	数据名称	分辨率	原始数据来源
基础数据	土地利用数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
社会经济条件	人口密度	1 km	OpenStreetMap （https://www.openstreetmap.org）
	地区生产总值	1 km
	距区县政府距离	30 m
	距高速公路距离	30 m
	距铁路距离	30 m
	距国道距离	30 m
	距省道距离	30 m
自然环境条件	距水域距离	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
	土壤类型	1 km
	高程	30 m
	坡度	30 m
	年平均气温	1 km	国家地球系统科学数据中心（https://www.geodata.cn）
	年平均降水量	1 km	国家地球系统科学数据中心（https://www.geodata.cn）

威胁因子	最大影响距离/km	衰退方式	权重
耕地	4	线性衰退	0.6
建设用地	7	指数衰退	0.7
未利用地	4	线性衰退	0.4

土地类型	生境适宜度	威胁因子
土地类型	生境适宜度	耕地	建设用地	未利用地
耕地	0.5	0.0	0.7	0.5
林地	1.0	0.5	0.5	0.7
草地	0.8	0.5	0.6	0.6
水域	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.6
建设用地	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
未利用地	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Evolution and simulation of habitat quality in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains based on the PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector model

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