青藏高寒区自然资本可持续利用时空分异特征及驱动因素——以青海省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.395

Abstract

Abstract:

The sustainable utilization of natural capital is a core issue in regional high-quality development. This study, focusing on eight cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province of China, applied an improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model, a standard deviation ellipse model, and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to quantitatively examine spatiotemporal dynamics and the driving factors of natural capital use from 2012 to 2022 at the prefectural level. The results indicate that (1) From 2012 to 2022, the per capita ecological footprint in Qinghai increased from 2.5 hm²·person^-1 to 3.0 hm²·person^-1, the per capita ecological carrying capacity rose from 0.6 hm²·person^-1 to 0.8 hm²·person^-1, and the per capita ecological deficit expanded from 1.9 hm²·person^-1 to 2.5 hm²·person^-1. The gravity center of the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint shifted northwestward, reflecting an increasing pressure on resources and the environment from human economic activities. (2) Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Haixi Mongolian and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, and Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had larger ecological footprints, while Xining City was the lowest. Haidong City was the only region with an ecological surplus. Haidong City had the largest footprint, and Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture the smallest; Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture showed the greatest depth of footprint. (3) Both the natural capital flow occupancy rate and stock-flow utilization ratio exhibited a high in the west, low in the east pattern, and all eight prefectures were in a slightly unsustainable or worse state. (4) The influencing factors of natural capital use showed significant spatial heterogeneity: the regression coefficient of fixed asset investment growth rate showed a low in the north and high in the south pattern, while the regression coefficient of power generation had a low in the east and high in the west pattern. It is necessary to apply differentiated strategies that are tailored to local conditions to promote synergistic ecological and economic development. This study provides a scientific basis for the management of ecological resources and sustainable development in the Tibetan Alpine region.

Key words: natural capital, sustainable utilization, three-dimensional ecological footprint model, GTWR model, Qinghai Province

LI Lingling, REN Jun, LI Chengying, WANG Shuqi, CHEN Rui, WEN Shuo. Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of sustainable utilization of natural capital in the Qinghai-Xizang alpine region: A case of Qinghai Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1418-1429.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 8

References 27

[1]	董建红, 张志斌, 张文斌. 基于三维生态足迹的甘肃省自然资本利用动态变化及驱动力[J]. 生态学杂志, 2019, 38(10): 3075-3085.
	[Dong Jianhong, Zhang Zhibin, Zhang Wenbin. Dynamic changes and driving forces of natural capital utilization in Gansu Province based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2019, 38(10): 3075-3085.]
[2]	张军泽, 王帅, 赵文武, 等. 可持续发展目标关系研究进展[J]. 生态学报, 2019, 39(22): 8327-8337.
	[Zhang Junze, Wang Shuai, Zhao Wenwu, et al. Research progress on the relationships among sustainable development goals[J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2019, 39(22): 8327-8337.]
[3]	Farley J, Daly H. Natural capital: The limiting factor a reply to Aronson, Blignaut, Milton and Clewell[J]. Ecological Engineering, 2006, 28(1): 6-10. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoleng.2006.05.021
[4]	Turner K R, Daily C G. The ecosystem services framework and natural capital conservation[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2008, 39(1): 25-35. doi: 10.1007/s10640-007-9176-6
[5]	张彩平, 姜紫薇, 韩宝龙, 等. 自然资本价值核算研究综述[J]. 生态学报, 2021, 41(23): 9174-9185.
	[Zhang Caiping, Jiang Ziwei, Han Baolong, et al. A review of research on natural capital valuation[J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2021, 41(23): 9174-9185.]
[6]	刘洋, 王爱国. 自然资本核算研究的理论与方法综述[J]. 会计之友, 2019(3): 26-31.
	[Liu Yang, Wang Aiguo. A review of the theories and methods of natural-capital accounting[J]. Friends of Accounting, 2019(3): 26-31.]
[7]	蒋毓琪, 杨怡康, 朱少英. 基于三维生态足迹模型的山西省矿区2010—2019年自然资本存量动态评估[J]. 水土保持通报, 2021, 41(6): 165-170, 179.
	[Jiang Yuqi, Yang Yikang, Zhu Shaoying. Dynamic evaluation of natural capital stocks by three-dimension ecological footprint model of mining areas in Shanxi Province during 2010—2019[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2021, 41(6): 165-170, 179.]
[8]	李鹏辉. 生态足迹视角下的中国省域自然资本可持续利用评估[D]. 石河子: 石河子大学, 2022.
	[Li Penghui. Evaluation of sustainable utilization of natural capital at the provincial level in China from the perspective of ecological footprint[D]. Shihezi: Shihezi University, 2022.]
[9]	王成军, 汤晶翔, 冯涛, 等. 基于能值生态足迹的黄河流域9省区可持续发展评价[J]. 中国沙漠, 2023, 43(3): 138-151. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00170
	[Wang Chengjun, Tang Jingxiang, Feng Tao, et al. Sustainable development evaluation of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin based on emergy ecological footprint[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2023, 43(3): 138-151.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00170
[10]	方恺. 基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析——选取11个国家为数据源[J]. 生态学报, 2015, 35(11): 3766-3777.
	[Fang Kai. Analysis of the characteristics of natural capital utilization based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model: Taking 11 countries as data sources[J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2015, 35(11): 3766-3777.]
[11]	Guo J, Wei Z, Xie X R, et al. Dynamic change and driving force of natural capital in Qinghai Province based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022, 145: 1-15.
[12]	李少坤, 王少军, 张志, 等. 三维生态足迹视角下江西省自然资本可持续利用演化及其驱动因素[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2022, 43(1): 110-123.
	[Li Shaokun, Wang Shaojun, Zhang Zhi, et al. Evolution and driving factors of sustainable utilization of natural capital in Jiangxi Province from the perspective of three-dimensional ecological footprint[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2022, 43(1): 110-123.]
[13]	苏文亮, 李文龙, 朱亚莉, 等. 基于能值生态足迹模型的青海地区可持续发展评估[J]. 草业科学, 2019, 36(5): 1445-1456.
	[Su Wenliang, Li Wenlong, Zhu Yali, et al. Assessment of sustainable development in Qinghai area based on emergy ecological footprint model[J]. Pratacultural Science, 2019, 36(5): 1445-1456.]
[14]	伍芮, 李成英. ArcGIS下基于三维生态足迹模型的土地利用分析——以青海省东部城市为例[J]. 国土与自然资源研究, 2020(6): 20-27.
	[Wu Rui, Li Chengying. Land use analysis based on three-dimensional ecological footprint model under ArcGIS: A case study of eastern cities in Qinghai Province[J]. Territory & Natural Resources Study, 2020(6): 20-27.]
[15]	贾媛媛, 李维德. 基于生态足迹模型的海西州可持续发展评价[J]. 生态科学, 2024, 43(3): 94-103.
	[Jia Yuanyuan, Li Weide. Evaluation of sustainable development in Haixi Prefecture based on the ecological footprint model[J]. Ecological Science, 2024, 43(3): 94-103.]
[16]	高亚培, 刘玮, 李成英, 等. 青藏高寒区“三生空间”演变及碳排放多情景模拟: 以青海省为例[J]. 环境科学, 2025, 46(8): 4923-4933.
	[Gao Yapei, Liu Wei, Li Chengying, et al. Evolution of “production-living-ecological space” and multi-scenario simulation of carbon emissions in the Qinghai-Xizang alpine region: A case study of Qinghai Province[J]. Environmental Science, 2025, 46(8): 4923-4933.]
[17]	潘元琪, 陈文德, 郭悦. 根据“市公顷”模型分析2014年绵竹市的生态足迹[J]. 四川林业科技, 2017, 38(2): 100-102, 64.
	[Pan Yuanqi, Chen Wende, Guo Yue. Analysis of ecological footprint in Mianzhu City in 2014 based on the “city hectare” model[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2017, 38(2): 100-102, 64.]
[18]	王军邦, 欧阳熙煌, 明茹, 等. 基于草地资源空间优化配置的三江源区生物多样性保护途径探索[J]. 国家公园, 2025, 3(5): 286-300.
	[Wang Junbang, Ouyang Xihuang, Ming Ru, et al. Exploring biodiversity conservation pathways in the Three-River-Source Region based on spatial optimization of grassland resources[J]. National Park, 2025, 3(5): 286-300.]
[19]	杨荣荣. 基于NPP的祁连山南坡草地生态足迹与生态承载力估算及影响因素分析[D]. 西宁: 青海师范大学, 2020.
	[Yang Rongrong. Estimation of grassland ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity on the southern slope of Qilian Mountains based on NPP and analysis of influencing factors[D]. Xining: Qinghai Normal University, 2020.]
[20]	Niccolucci V, Bastianoni S, Tiezzi E B P, et al. How deep is the footprint? A 3D representation[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2009, 220(20): 2819-2823. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.018
[21]	Niccolucci V, Galli A, Reed A, et al. Towards a 3D national ecological footprint geography[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2011, 222(16): 2939-2944. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.04.020
[22]	李曼, 韩丽, 刘焕才, 等. 基于GTWR模型的疏勒河流域人均三维生态足迹动态变化及其影响因素分析[J]. 生态经济, 2024, 40(3): 147-154.
	[Li Man, Han Li, Liu Huancai, et al. Dynamic changes of per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint and analysis of its influencing factors in the Shule River Basin based on the GTWR model[J]. Ecological Economy, 2024, 40(3): 147-154.] doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00017-4
[23]	陆燕和, 刘彦花, 蒙烨铭, 等. 广西壮族自治区耕地绿色利用效率时空格局与影响因素[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025, 45(2): 325-336, 396.
	[Lu Yanhe, Liu Yanhua, Meng Yeming, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of cultivated land green utilization efficiency in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 325-336, 396.]
[24]	中共青海省委办公厅. 青海省加力推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新实施方案[N]. 青海日报, 2024-08-26(010).
	[General Office of Qinghai Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China. Implementation plan for Qinghai Province to strengthen efforts in promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-ins[N]. Qinghai Daily, 2024-08-26(010).]
[25]	中共青海省委办公厅. 青海省人民政府办公厅关于贯彻落实《质量强国建设纲要》的实施意见[N]. 青海日报, 2023-05-06(003).
	[Opinions of the General Office of the Communist Party of China. Qinghai Provincial Committee and the General Office of Qinghai Provincial People’s Government on implementing the outline for building a quality powerful country[N]. Qinghai Daily, 2023-05-06(003).]
[26]	侯霞, 胡春含. 三维生态足迹模型下西藏生态承载力分析与提升对策研究[J]. 西藏发展论坛, 2023(6): 66-72.
	[Hou Xia, Hu Chunhan. Analysis and improvement of ecological carrying capacity in Xizang under 3D ecological footprint model[J]. The Theoretical Platform of Tibetan Development, 2023(6): 66-72.]
[27]	叶静. 我国西部地区生态足迹时空演变及驱动因素研究[D]. 呼和浩特: 内蒙古财经大学, 2022.
	[Ye Jing. Research on the spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of ecological footprint in western China[D]. Hohhot: Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, 2022.]

足迹类别	土地类型	消费项目	均衡因子	产量因子
生物资源	耕地	小麦、杂粮、蚕豆、豌豆、薯类、油菜籽、烟叶、蔬菜和食用菌、瓜果、甜菜、枸杞、猪肉	4.3805	0.7442
	林地	苹果、梨、葡萄、蜂蜜、木材	0.1676	0.0801
	草地	牛肉、羊肉、其他、牛奶、羊毛	0.0722	0.2382
	水域（湖泊、河流积雪和冰川）	水产品	0.0475	4.2342
能源资源	建设用地	一次电力、原煤、天然气、石油	4.3805	0.7442

类型	解释变量	方差膨胀因子
经济发展	地区生产总值/10⁸元	30.691
	第二产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重/%	8.087
	第三产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重/%	7.263
	固定资产投资增速/%	1.393
社会发展	城镇居民可支配收入/元	20.226
	城镇居民人均消费生活支出/元·人^-1	10.855
	农村居民可支配收入/元	35.334
	农村居民人均消费生活支出/元·人^-1	22.464
科技进步	互联网宽带接入用户数/户	42.156
科技进步	科学研究从业人员数量/人	5.720
能源强度	农村用电量/10⁴ kWh	12.224
	发电量/10⁸ kWh	1.701
	化肥施用量/t	5.853

自变量	系数估计	标准差	t值	P值
常数项	7.715	1.001	7.703	0.000
第二产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重	-0.003	0.013	-0.250	0.803
第三产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重	-0.093	0.018	-5.233	0.000
固定资产投资增速	-0.011	0.007	-1.663	0.100
科学研究从业人员数量	0.000	0.000	0.868	0.388
发电量	-0.003	0.002	-1.824	0.072
化肥施用量	0.000	0.000	-5.178	0.000

模型参数	OLS	GWR	GTWR
R²	0.5263	0.9957	0.9965
AICc	197.9	137.7	57.7
模型特征	无时间、无空间	有空间、无时间	有时间、有空间

Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of sustainable utilization of natural capital in the Qinghai-Xizang alpine region: A case of Qinghai Province

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 13

References 27

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	LU Han, ZENG Yongnian, WANG Pancheng. Spatiotemporal variation of actual evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 753-764.
[2]	MENG Wangsheng, LIU Weilin, LIU Huazhen. Measurement and analysis of inclusive green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin cities from the perspective of water cycle [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1841-1854.
[3]	YUAN Qingwen, LIU Yanfang, ZHAO Jinmei, AN Rui, LIU Yaolin. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and driving factors of land intensive utilization in development zones of Ningxia [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 861-871.
[4]	WANG Huixian, YANG Bei, YANG Ningjun, LI Luyao. Tourism economic differences and key driving factors in the Yellow River Basin [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 515-527.
[5]	ZHANG Jing, BAO Guangyu, LIU Wei, YANG Chunhua, YAN Zhenning, DAI Qingcuo, FU Yongchao. Characteristics and model of rainstorm and flood disaster risk index along Qinghai Highway [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 28-37.
[6]	DONG Jiefang, ZHANG Kaili, QU Xueshu, RUAN Zheng. Measurement and influencing factors of ecological well-being performance of cities in Yellow River Basin [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 834-845.
[7]	GAO Fuxin, ZHAO Ling, WEI Qiong. Spatiotemporal pattern and dynamic evolution of rural non-farm employment: A case of Qinghai Province [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(12): 2111-2119.
[8]	ZHANG Jian-hai, ZHANG Qi, XU De-he, DING Yan. Application of a combined ARIMA-LSTM model based on SPI for the forecast of drought：A case study in Qinghai Province [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 1004-1013.
[9]	HUANG Xin, LIU Jian-hong, SHEN Ke-jian, LIU Yong-mei, WANG Lei. Grassland yield change in Qinghai Province based on MODIS data [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(3): 715-725.
[10]	YANG Xiao-min, LI Ling-qin, FU Jian-xin, CAO Guang-chao, TANG Zhong-xia, LI Ya-ling, WANG Hao-wen, WANG Rui-qing, LIU Ai-jia. Pattern variation of accessibility and economic linkage at county scale in Qinghai Province from 1986 to 2016 [J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1376-1387.
[11]	HAN Bing-hong, ZHOU Bing-rong, WU Rang, ZHAO Min, NIE Guo-yan, NIU De-cao, FU Hua. Grid-based estimation of drought disaster in Qinghai Province [J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1194-1203.
[12]	MAO Xiao-Hui. STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION STRATEGY OF WATER RESOURCES IN TARIM RIVER BASIN [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2001, 24(2): 136-140.
[13]	ZHAO Xue-yan. EVALUATION ON OASIS SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2001, 24(1): 86-89.
[14]	YAN Chang-zhen, WANG Yi-mou, FENG Yu-sun, WANG Jian-hua, WU Wei. PRESENT SITUATION AND DISTRIBUTING FEATURES OF THE SANDY LAND IN QINGHAI PROVINCE IN MID1990S [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2000, 23(2): 104-108.
[15]	BAI Yong-ping, WEN Jun. SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF AGRO-ECOCLIMATIC RESOURCES IN QINGHAI PROVINCE [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2000, 23(2): 97-103.