基于格网的青海省干旱灾害综合风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.06.07

Abstract

Abstract: With the gradual implementation of meteorological modernization,the importance of the risk assessment technique as well as its precision about drought disaster is more prominent.While drought is one of the global meteorological disasters to a certain extent,the agricultural and animal husbandry production,ecological environment improvement and social and economic development have been severely restricted.The risk assessment of drought disaster is an important measure to carry out the risk management of regional drought disaster,and it is the non-engineering technical measure to implement the work of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction effectively.The risk assessment of drought disaster in Qinghai Province,China was studied by some scholars,but it was based on vector data of county domain units.Therefore,the results exaggerated the risk degree and spatial distribution of drought disaster,and the accuracy of disaster risk assessment was reduced.In order to assess regional drought monitoring accuracy and the risk levels of drought disaster in Qinghai Province scientifically and accurately,this paper used the potential evapotranspiration and precipitation data from 50 meteorology stations in Qinghai Province during the period from 1961 to 2010 to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the risk levels based on the theory and methods of meteorological disaster risk estimation.This was also done with the methods of combining the drought disaster risk degree model and ArcGIS spatial analysis,according to the regional drought grading standard of Qinghai Province.The results showed that the winter and spring drought appeared in Qinghai Province with varying degrees in the period.From the spatial and temporal distribution perspective,the distribution and evolution trends of light,medium and heavy drought were basically identical.The areas prone to drought disaster or with high incidence of drought disaster were mainly located in the northwest of Qaidam Basin,while Qinghai Lake,Gonghe Basin and the eastern agricultural regions were at medium risk level.The rest shared the low levels of drought disaster risk; from the viewpoint of the administration unit,the drought disaster risks were higher in Mangya,Lenghu,Huatugou Town and Golmud City.The drought disaster risks in the regions including Tianjun,Dulan,Wulan,Gonghe,Xinghai,Tongde,Guinan,Tongren,Hualong,Xunhua and Tanggula,were in the medium levels.The rest were with the low levels.In addition,influenced by topography and geomorphology,the Mangya and Lenghu area were in a dry state throughout the whole year,which were more consistent with the reality.Thus,it could be seen that the occurrence of drought disaster in Qinghai Province was not only related to precipitation,but also related to the underlying surface of different types.

Key words: Qinghai Province, drought disaster, the risk model, the estimation of risk

CLC Number:

HAN Bing-hong, ZHOU Bing-rong, WU Rang, ZHAO Min, NIE Guo-yan, NIU De-cao, FU Hua. Grid-based estimation of drought disaster in Qinghai Province[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1194-1203.

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Grid-based estimation of drought disaster in Qinghai Province

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