甘肃省新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协同及其驱动因素非平稳性

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.686

Abstract

Abstract:

Gansu Province plays a pivotal role in China’s ecological construction. Therefore, exploring the coupling synergy between new urbanization and ecological security status in Gansu Province and its driving factors is of great significance for developing a robust ecological security barrier in northwest China and across the whole country. Based on the “population-economy-society-space” and “driving force-pressure-state-impact-response-management” models, this study constructed index systems for assessing new urbanization and ecological safety in the 14 municipalities (prefectures) of Gansu Province. A coupled coordination model was employed to analyze the development trends of the two synergies, and Geodetector and a spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model were used to identify the main drivers and their spatiotemporal non-stationarity. The following results were obtained: (1) From 2012 to 2021, the index of new urbanization in Gansu Province grew from 0.213 to 0.328, a relatively low level of growth, and the index of ecological security increased by 0.099, from a low level of security to a moderate one. (2) From 2012 to 2021, the degree of coupling synergy of new urbanization and ecological security in Gansu Province increased from 0.527 to 0.628, and the synergistic status changed from barely to primary coordinated, reflecting the characteristic spatial distribution of “low in the north and south, and high in the middle”. (3) Fixed assets investments, the number of employees in secondary industries, urban population density, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and the proportion of secondary industries in the GDP were the main driving forces for the synergy. (4) These driving factors showed non-stationarity in temporal and spatial scales, with differences in direction and intensity. The results can provide a reference for decision-makers aiming to promote new urbanization in Gansu Province and maintaining regional ecological security.

Key words: ecological security, new urbanization, coupling coordination, non-stationarity, driving factors

XU Jing, YANG Bin. Coupling coordination of new urbanization and ecological security and spatial-temporal non-stationarity of its driving factors in Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1432-1444.

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要素层	指标层	方向	权重
人口	城镇人口比重/%	+	0.062
	城镇新增就业人员/人	+	0.079
	第二产业从业人数/10⁴人	+	0.100
	第三产业从业人数/10⁴人	+	0.087
经济	人均GDP/元	+	0.091
	GDP增长率/%	+	0.004
	固定资产投资/10⁴元	+	0.093
社会	人均拥有道路面积/m²	+	0.040
	公共图书馆藏书量/10⁴册	+	0.032
	卫生机构床位数/张	+	0.068
	供水普及率/%	+	0.008
	燃气普及率/%	+	0.020
空间	建成区面积/km²	+	0.129
	建成区供水管道密度/km·km^-2	+	0.054
	建成区排水管道密度/km·km^-2	+	0.066
	建成区路网密度/km·km^-2	+	0.038
	建成区道路面积率/%	+	0.029

要素层	指标层	方向	权重
驱动力	城镇人口密度/人·km^-2	-	0.048
	城镇化率/%	-	0.045
	第二产业增加值占GDP比重/%	-	0.025
	年降水量/mm	+	0.072
	年均气温/℃	+	0.070
压力	工业烟粉尘排放量/t	-	0.011
	工业SO₂排放量/t	-	0.020
	工业废水排放量/10⁴t	-	0.003
	工业固体废弃物产生量/10⁴t	-	0.019
	农药、化肥施用量/10⁴t	-	0.026
状态	归一化植被指数	+	0.071
	每日人均生活用水量/L	-	0.031
	人均公园绿地面积/m²	+	0.096
	粮食综合生产能力/10⁴t	+	0.047
	生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	+	0.012
影响	第三产业占GDP比重/%	+	0.030
	建成区绿化面积/hm²	+	0.168
	人均农业机械总动力/kW	+	0.049
响应	城市污水处理率/%	+	0.014
	一般工业固体废物综合利用率/%	+	0.043
	畜禽粪污综合利用率/%	+	0.035
管理	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	+	0.029
	建成区绿地率/%	+	0.038

区间	新型城镇化	生态安全
（0.0, 0.2）	低水平	不安全
[0.2, 0.4）	较低水平	低度安全
[0.4, 0.6）	中等水平	中度安全
[0.6, 0.8）	较高水平	高度安全
[0.8, 1.0]	高水平	极高度安全

区间	等级	含义	区间	等级	含义
[0.000, 0.100）	Ⅰ	极度失调	[0.500, 0.600）	Ⅵ	勉强协调
[0.100, 0.200）	Ⅱ	严重失调	[0.600, 0.700）	Ⅶ	初级协调
[0.200, 0.300）	Ⅲ	中度失调	[0.700, 0.800）	Ⅷ	中级协调
[0.300, 0.400）	Ⅳ	轻度失调	[0.800, 0.900）	Ⅸ	良好协调
[0.400, 0.500）	Ⅴ	濒临失调	[0.900, 1.000]	Ⅹ	优质协调

综合发展指数	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年
新型城镇化指数	0.213	0.238	0.250	0.257	0.267	0.270	0.263	0.304	0.314	0.328
生态安全指数	0.399	0.417	0.426	0.430	0.448	0.470	0.487	0.491	0.491	0.498

Coupling coordination of new urbanization and ecological security and spatial-temporal non-stationarity of its driving factors in Gansu Province

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市州	耦合协调度
市州	2012年	2015年	2018年	2021年
兰州市	0.666	0.730	0.786	0.792
嘉峪关市	0.559	0.567	0.620	0.630
金昌市	0.488	0.502	0.553	0.596
白银市	0.514	0.546	0.568	0.613
天水市	0.559	0.601	0.584	0.651
武威市	0.467	0.500	0.543	0.588
张掖市	0.516	0.595	0.584	0.624
平凉市	0.605	0.644	0.621	0.659
酒泉市	0.578	0.602	0.604	0.621
庆阳市	0.557	0.611	0.622	0.675
定西市	0.506	0.549	0.567	0.608
陇南市	0.487	0.533	0.575	0.610
临夏州	0.463	0.516	0.538	0.597
甘南州	0.414	0.421	0.490	0.532
平均值	0.527	0.565	0.590	0.628

驱动因子	驱动因子的解释力
驱动因子	2012年	2015年	2018年	2021年	平均值
城镇人口密度	0.571	0.657	0.413	0.586	0.557
第二产业占GDP比重	0.747	0.491	0.417	0.383	0.510
年降水量	0.604	0.566	0.418	0.333	0.480
年均气温	0.531	0.593	0.403	0.463	0.498
归一化植被指数	0.496	0.509	0.411	0.513	0.482
第二产业从业人数	0.630	0.822	0.685	0.635	0.693
人均GDP	0.638	0.533	0.653	0.348	0.543
固定资产投资	0.745	0.538	0.753	0.765	0.701

模型	R²	调整R²	AICc
OLS	0.787	0.774	202.706
GWR	0.941	0.923	91.730
GTWR	0.976	0.975	-670.016

驱动因子	2012年	2015年	2018年	2021年
城镇人口密度	-0.078	-0.087	-0.092	-0.088
第二产业占GDP比重	-0.046	-0.097	-0.105	-0.073
年降水量	-0.024	-0.016	-0.029	-0.067
年均气温	0.077	0.068	0.064	0.010
归一化植被指数	-0.039	-0.008	0.010	0.035
第二产业从业人数	0.168	0.130	0.075	0.100
人均GDP	-0.003	0.134	0.163	0.127
固定资产投资	0.176	0.158	0.120	0.052

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