基于CMIP6模式的叶尔羌河流域未来水文干旱风险预估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.536

Abstract

Abstract:

Global warming has led to the increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts, posing significant threats to ecological security and sustainable socioeconomic development, particularly in arid regions, which are highly sensitive and responsive to climate changes. This paper employs the distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS, utilizing observed meteorological and hydrological data from basin stations and global climate model data from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP6), to simulate and forecast the historical (1986—2014) and future (2015—2100) runoff trends and hydrological drought risks in the Yarkant River Basin (an essential tributary of the Tarim River), Xinjiang, China. The findings indicate that: (1) The HEC-HMS model is well-suited for arid basin areas. Under the three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios, the runoff and standardized runoff index (SRI) in the Yarkant River Basin are projected to significantly increase (P<0.1), with the SRI growth rate estimated at approximately 0.13-0.27·(10a)^-1. (2) A comparative analysis of the marginal distributions of four drought characteristic variables in the basin for both historical and future periods reveals that the duration and intensity of future droughts will exceed those in the historical record, with a continuous rise in drought event magnitudes. (3) Moreover, the joint probability of future hydrological droughts in the Yarkant River Basin is expected to decrease relative to the historical period, leading to a prolonged return period for future droughts. The outcomes of this study offer valuable scientific references for water resource management and the development of strategies to mitigate hydrological drought risks in the basin.

Key words: hydrological drought, risk prediction, CMIP6, climate change

XIANG Yanyun, WANG Yi, CHEN Yaning, ZHANG Qifei, ZHANG Yujie. Prediction of future hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin based on CMIP6 models[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 798-809.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Symmetric Archimedean Copula functions"

Copula函数	公式	参数范围
Gumbel	$E x p - - l n u 1 θ + - l n u 2 θ + - l n u 3 θ 1 / θ$	$1, ∞)$
Frank	$- 1 θ l n 1 + e - θ u 1 - 1 e - θ u 2 - 1 e - θ u 3 - 1 / e - θ - 1 2$	$1, 0), (0, 1$
Clayton	$u 1 - θ + u 2 - θ + u 3 - θ - 2 - 1 / θ$	(0, $∞$ )

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 4

Fig. 6

Tab. 5

Return periods in Yarkant River Basin during historical and future periods"

时期	干旱变量及相应重现期	单变量重现期（T）
时期	干旱变量及相应重现期	2 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	50 a	100 a
历史时期	Dd/月	2.18	3.85	5.36	7.59	10.00	12.58
	Di	0.81	1.07	1.24	1.42	1.56	1.67
	Dp	0.91	1.43	1.93	2.58	3.19	3.77
	(Dd_Di)T_and/a	2.09	5.91	14.02	37.17	82.25	161.24
	(Dd_Di)T_or/a	1.85	4.33	7.77	13.70	20.90	29.59
	(Di_Dp)T_and/a	2.41	8.33	23.89	76.49	190.98	405.30
	(Di_Dp)T_or/a	1.65	3.57	6.32	11.50	18.26	26.64
	(Dd_Dp)T_and/a	2.27	7.32	19.82	60.32	146.20	304.69
	(Dd_Dp)T_or/a	1.72	3.80	6.69	11.99	18.81	27.23
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_and/a	2.51	9.40	30.61	122.88	391.81	1000.00
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_or/a	1.68	3.56	5.92	9.84	14.64	20.41
SSP126	Dd/月	2.29	4.12	5.21	6.97	10.23	18.48
	Di	0.78	1.24	1.45	1.62	1.74	1.83
	Dp	1.01	1.59	1.86	2.15	2.50	3.02
	(Dd_Di)T_and/a	2.19	6.48	15.58	49.05	205.18	1562.50
	(Dd_Di)T_or/a	1.84	4.11	7.06	13.22	27.56	76.45
	(Di_Dp)T_and/a	2.18	6.35	15.08	46.79	192.96	1452.99
	(Di_Dp)T_or/a	1.85	4.16	7.17	13.39	27.79	76.73
	(Dd_Dp)T_and/a	2.23	9.17	28.39	114.86	582.87	5054.03
	(Dd_Dp)T_or/a	1.81	3.46	5.86	11.45	25.35	73.95
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_and/a	2.51	9.20	24.57	82.12	346.75	2603.72
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_or/a	1.86	3.51	5.44	9.45	18.92	51.44
SSP245	Dd/月	1.17	4.26	5.88	8.36	15.17	20.03
	Di	1.88	5.07	9.57	17.81	42.62	61.09
	Dp	0.90	1.40	1.73	2.08	2.63	2.88
	(Dd_Di)T_and/a	2.14	6.17	14.95	40.64	203.27	418.16
	(Dd_Di)T_or/a	1.88	4.31	7.67	13.51	31.19	44.92
	(Di_Dp)T_and/a	2.39	11.09	36.93	131.80	863.66	1909.51
	(Di_Dp)T_or/a	1.73	3.29	5.88	10.99	27.92	41.45
	(Dd_Dp)T_and/a	2.20	9.70	33.07	120.80	807.88	1794.67
	(Dd_Dp)T_or/a	1.84	3.43	5.99	11.07	27.98	41.50
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_and/a	2.40	17.66	169.82	594.86	1161.75	2129.31
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_or/a	1.74	3.41	5.63	9.46	21.15	30.27
SSP370	Dd/月	1.85	3.77	9.84	22.98	69.41	132.10
	Di	1.10	3.53	10.73	25.50	74.90	138.81
	Dp	0.61	1.12	1.57	1.89	2.25	2.44
	(Dd_Di)T_and/a	3.67	5.27	12.97	36.15	175.58	484.10
	(Dd_Di)T_or/a	3.65	4.71	8.08	13.74	29.96	49.36
	(Di_Dp)T_and/a	3.71	5.18	10.82	23.67	79.29	179.41
	(Di_Dp)T_or/a	3.61	4.79	9.21	17.18	37.80	59.70
	(Dd_Dp)T_and/a	3.72	5.72	13.71	36.16	163.15	435.11
	(Dd_Dp)T_or/a	3.59	4.40	7.81	13.73	30.36	49.93
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_and/a	3.71	5.42	13.95	40.72	206.81	567.91
	(Dd_Di_Dp)T_or/a	3.59	4.35	7.65	12.87	25.64	39.51

Tab. 5

References 35

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标准化径流指数（SRI）	干旱等级
(-1, -0.5]	轻度干旱
(-1.5, -1]	中度干旱
(-2, -1.5]	重度干旱
≤-2	极端干旱

时段	年份	NSE	PBIAS/%	R²
率定期	2005—2010	0.80	5.86	0.81
验证期	1986—2004	0.72	16.56	0.70
验证期	2011—2014	0.83	9.74	0.85

时期	函数	参数	Dd&Di	Di&Dp	Dd&Dp	Dd&Di&Dp
控制期	Gumbel	θ	1.34	3.32	1.80	2.93^#
		RMSE	0.12	0.09	0.11	0.05
		AIC	-52.38	-61.21	-55.18	-342.51
	Frank	θ	2.57^#	13.42^#	4.50^#	9.41
		RMSE	0.12	0.08	0.11	0.05
		AIC	-52.45	-64.16	-54.99	-334.57
	Clayton	θ	0.30	3.50	0.53	3.85
		RMSE	0.13	0.09	0.12	0.06
		AIC	-50.84	-61.34	-54.42	-323.45
SSP126	Gumbel	θ	2.59	2.15	1.57	3.51
		RMSE	0.05	0.04	0.06	0.09
		AIC	-347.79	-381.25	-333.49	-264.46
	Frank	θ	11.14^#	10.28^#	4.80	12.08
		RMSE	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.10
		AIC	-375.28	-408.83	-360.19	-261.79
	Clayton	θ	0.05	0.08	1.94^#	5.03^#
		RMSE	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.09
		AIC	-226.00	-253.63	-362.21	-271.12
SSP245	Gumbel	θ	1.14	2.72	1.29	2.23
		RMSE	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.11
		AIC	-348.89	-334.98	-306.04	-231.66
	Frank	θ	1.86^#	11.99^#	2.89	6.44^#
		RMSE	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.11
		AIC	-355.62	-349.88	-327.94	-232.54
	Clayton	θ	0.02	0.07	1.32^#	2.45
		RMSE	0.04	0.13	0.04	0.12
		AIC	-331.18	-213.75	-339.59	-221.57
SSP370	Gumbel	θ	1.46	4.15	1.75	3.00
		RMSE	0.07	0.05	0.07	0.06
		AIC	-118.79	-138.45	-123.35	-130.76
	Frank	θ	4.39^#	14.43	6.44^#	9.97^#
		RMSE	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.06
		AIC	-126.57	-136.16	-134.79	-133.06
	Clayton	θ	0.86	4.44^#	1.16	4.00
		RMSE	0.07	0.04	0.07	0.06
		AIC	-120.65	-143.51	-119.68	-128.56

Prediction of future hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin based on CMIP6 models

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