2000—2020年中亚大型湖泊湖冰物候时空变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.200

Abstract

Abstract:

The phenology of lake ice is a sensitive indicator of regional climate change. Through comprehensive analysis of long-term surface reflectance data, meteorological data, and lake information for seven large lakes (Karakul Lake, Balkhash Lake, Aral Sea, Alakol Lake, Zaysan Lake, Chatir Kol Lake, and Markakol Lake) with an area greater than 100 km² in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020, GIS-related technologies were used to explore the characteristics of lake ice phenology and its influencing factors. The results are as follows: (1) Lakes in Central Asia began to freeze from mid-September to early November and completely froze from late November to late December, with an average freezing time of 35 days; lake ice began to melt from late March to mid-May and would completely melt from early April to early June, with an average melting time of 18 days. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the start dates of ice formation in five of the seven lakes in Central Asia exhibited a delayed trend, with an average delay rate of 4.86 days per decade, whereas the start date of Balkhash Lake exhibited an advancing trend, with an advancing rate of 1.44 days per decade. The analysis suggests that this may be due to a decrease in the annual average temperature in the winter half of the year. The complete melting dates showed an advancing trend, with an average advancement rate of 2.90 days per decade. The average ice-covered period for the seven lakes was 171 days, with four of the lakes exhibiting a trend of shortening of the ice-covered period. The complete freezing period shows an overall trend of shortening, with Balkhash Lake exhibiting the most significant reduction, with a rate of 9.02 days per decade. (3) The spatial pattern of the formation and melting of lake ice in the seven lakes in Central Asia can be mainly divided into two categories: the lake water gradually freezes from both sides to the center and melts from the lake shore to the opposite side, or the lake water freezes from the shore to the opposite side and the earlier freezing, lake area melts the sooner. (4) The lake ice phenology changes in Central Asia are influenced by multiple factors such as lake characteristics (altitude and area) and climate (temperature and precipitation). Temperature is the key factor affecting lake ice phenology, and the higher the temperature, the shorter the ice-covered period. The area primarily affects the freezing date of the lake, and the larger the area, the shorter the ice-covered period. As the altitude increases, the ice-covered period of the lake extends.

Key words: lake ice phenology, climate change, Central Asia, MODIS

ZHAO Mingjie, WANG Ninglian, SHI Chenlie, HOU Jingqi. Temporal and spatial variations of lake ice phenology in large lakes of Central Asia from 2000 to 2020[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(4): 561-575.

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湖泊名称	地理位置	面积/km²	年份	海拔/m	湖泊类型
卡拉库尔湖	39°02′24″N，73°25′12″E	380	2015	3914	咸水湖
巴尔喀什湖	46°10′27″N，74°20′25″E	16996	2021	342	东为咸西为淡
查蒂尔-科尔湖	40°37′25″N，75°18′20″E	181	2020	3530	咸水湖
马卡科尔湖	48°45′23″N，85°45′29″E	455	2019	1445	咸水湖
阿拉湖	46°10′17″N，81°35′15″E	2650	2016	347	咸水湖
斋桑泊	48°00′07″N，84°00′05″E	1810	2021	388	淡水湖
咸海	45°53′25″N，60°23′21″E	3300	2008	39	咸水湖

陆地卫星	影像日期（年-月-日）	湖泊名称	陆地卫星	影像日期（年-月-日）	湖泊名称
Landsat7	2016-11-17	卡拉库尔湖	Landsat8	2018-12-09	马卡科尔湖
Landsat7	2016-12-03	巴尔喀什湖	Landsat8	2018-12-25	查蒂尔-科尔湖
Landsat7	2017-01-10	查蒂尔-科尔湖	Landsat8	2019-05-02	咸海
Landsat7	2017-05-12	马卡科尔湖	Landsat8	2019-05-18	斋桑泊
Landsat7	2017-05-28	斋桑泊	Landsat8	2019-11-26	巴尔喀什湖
Landsat7	2017-11-20	咸海	Landsat8	2019-12-12	阿拉湖
Landsat7	2017-12-06	阿拉湖	Landsat8	2019-12-28	卡拉库尔湖
Landsat7	2017-12-22	卡拉库尔湖	Landsat8	2020-01-29	斋桑泊
Landsat8	2018-01-07	巴尔喀什湖	Landsat8	2020-05-04	咸海
Landsat8	2018-05-15	阿拉湖	Landsat8	2020-05-20	卡拉库尔湖

湖泊名称	开始冻结	完全冻结	开始消融	完全消融	冻结期	消融期	湖冰存在期	完全冻结期
巴尔喀什湖	333	360	453	471	29	19	140	94
查蒂尔-科尔湖	283	330	499	518	49	20	237	170
马卡科尔湖	324	336	498	505	13	8	182	163
阿拉湖	261	334	450	482	75	33	223	117
卡拉库尔湖	315	359	493	516	45	23	202	136
咸海	336	-	365	463	-	-	127	-
斋桑泊	326	335	471	479	10	8	153	137
平均值	311	342	477	491	35	18	171	126

湖泊名称	开始冻结	完全冻结	开始消融	完全消融	冻结期	消融期	完全冻结期	湖冰存在期
巴尔喀什湖	-1.44	7.01^**	-2.01	-0.58	8.33^**	1.44	-9.02	0.87^*
查蒂尔-科尔湖	18.00^***	-0.40	2.40	-1.20	-19.00^***	-5.00	4.10^***	-19.20
马卡科尔湖	0.70	0.40	-4.90	-5.20^*	-0.40	-0.30	-5.30^*	-5.90^*
阿拉湖	3.00	6.00^**	-0.90	-5.70^**	3.00	-4.70^**	-7.00^**	-8.70^*
卡拉库尔湖	-0.30	6.80^***	-1.50	0.70	7.00^**	2.20	-8.30	1.00^***
咸海	1.70	-	-	-1.50	-	-	-	-3.20
斋桑泊	1.00	0.90	-4.40^*	-4.00^*	-0.10	-0.40	-4.60^*	-5.00

作者	研究区域	研究数据	数据分辨率	阈值范围/%	时间跨度	优点	缺点
Hou等^[54]	北半球中纬度地区	MODIS地表温度产品	1 d；1 km	20 80	2002—2020年	一天可以使用四幅影像进行湖冰属性的提取	没有进行动态阈值设定，提取精度较差
本文	中亚五国	MODIS地表反射率产品	1 d；250 m	10 90	2000—2020年	数据空间分辨更高，湖冰属性提取精度更高	采用动态阈值提取湖冰信息，耗时长

Temporal and spatial variations of lake ice phenology in large lakes of Central Asia from 2000 to 2020

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