甘肃省县域乡村韧性时空演变特征及驱动机制研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.406

Abstract

Abstract:

Evaluating rural development from a resilience perspective is significant for breaking the urban-rural dual structure and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization. This article takes 86 counties in Gansu Province as the research object and constructs a rural resilience evaluation index system based on three dimensions: “resilience, adaptability, and reconstruction capability”. Using spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographic detector models, it reveals the spatiotemporal evolution of rural resilience and its driving mechanisms in counties of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2022. The results indicated that (1) The resilience level of rural areas in Gansu Province has significantly improved, with obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. The resilience of rural areas in central and eastern Gansu is relatively high, while some counties in Hexi, Gannan, and Linxia have lower resilience. The number of high-resilience counties continues to increase, while the number of low-resilience counties continues to decrease. (2) There is a spatial positive correlation in rural resilience, and the correlation is gradually weakening. The degree of spatial agglomeration is declining, with high-agglomeration areas shrinking toward the central Gansu region and low-agglomeration areas concentrated in counties such as Gannan and Linxia. (3) The level of rural social services, economic development, and agricultural production has a significant impact on rural resilience. The explanatory power of rural industrial structure for rural resilience is steadily increasing, and rural resilience is driven by economic development, resource optimization, industrial transformation, and service guarantee mechanisms. This study’s results provide scientific reference for the implementation of rural resilience development in Gansu Province.

Key words: rural resilience, evolutionary characteristic, driving mechanism, geographic detector, Gansu Province

LI Qianguo, SUN Longkai, HUI Fanyan, ZHU Zongbin. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristic and driving mechanism of rural resilience in counties of Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 393-403.

Figures/Tables 10

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目标层	准则层（权重）	指标层（权重）	指标计算	属性
乡村韧性	抵御能力（0.315）	地均农业产值/10⁴元·hm^-2（0.376）	农业产值/耕地面积	+
		农村人均耕地资源/hm²·人^-1（0.295）	耕地面积/乡村总人口	+
		粮食单产/kg·hm^-2（0.329）	粮食总产量/粮食播种面积	+
	适应能力（0.373）	农业生产结构/%（0.563）	经济作物面积/农作物播种面积	+
		粮食自给率/%（0.218）	粮食总产量/（常住人口×400 kg）	+
		农药化肥使用强度/t·hm^-2（0.219）	农药化肥使用量/农作物播种面积	-
	重构能力（0.312）	农业产值占比/%（0.413）	第二三产业产值/农村经济总收入	+
		乡村从业人员占比/%（0.354）	乡村从业人员/乡村总人口	+
		复种指数/%（0.233）	农作物播种面积/耕地面积	+

分维度	2010年	2016年	2022年
抵御能力	5.424	4.749	5.991
适应能力	4.251	4.384	4.614
重构能力	4.672	4.711	4.900

解释变量	具体指标	代码	变量解释
农村社会服务水平	每万人农村居民拥有医疗卫生机构床位数	X₁	反映农村社会服务水平
农村社会服务水平	农民合作社数	X₂	反映农村社会服务水平
农村经济发展水平	农村居民人均可支配收入	X₃	反映农村经济发展水平
农村经济发展水平	农村居民人均消费支出	X₄	反映农村经济发展水平
农业生产水平	农业机械总动力	X₅	反映农业生产水平
农村人力资源	乡村劳动力资源总数	X₆	反映农村人力资源状况
农村能源动力	农村用电总量	X₇	反映农村能源利用状况
农村产业结构	农业产值	X₈	反映农村生产能力
	林业产值	X₉
	牧业产值	X₁₀

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristic and driving mechanism of rural resilience in counties of Gansu Province

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