1961—2022年新疆南部降雨和极端降雨特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.349

Abstract

Abstract:

Using daily rainfall data from 45 national meteorological observation stations in southern Xinjiang of China from 1961 to 2022, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of rainfall, identified extreme rainfall thresholds, and examined extreme rainfall characteristics. The results show that (1) Over the past 62 years, the region with the highest and most rapidly increasing annual average rainfall in southern Xinjiang has been located in the middle mountain belt at an altitude of 1500-2500 m, with a growth rate of 5.4 mm·(10a)^-1. This increase is mainly reflected in the greater number of rainfall days, particularly large-scale rainfall days, while the increase in heavy-rainstorm-level rainfall and above is especially pronounced. (2) Based on a comparative analysis using the percentile method, the 99^th percentile was identified as the threshold for extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang, corresponding to 14.1-35.4 mm. Thresholds in the western and mountain-adjacent regions are higher than those in the eastern basin-desert areas, and the extreme rainfall threshold has increased at a rate of 0.7 mm·(10a)^-1. Stations with the most rapid increases are primarily located in the mountainous areas of Kashgar, western Hotan, and northern Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. (3) Over the past 62 years, the number of extreme rainfall events in southern Xinjiang has generally ranged from 10-20 times, while in the Tianshan Mountains, events can persist for more than 20 times. Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency at a rate of 0.9 events per decade.

Key words: precipitation, extreme rainfall, spatiotemporal characteristics, changing trends, southern Xinjiang

Alim ARKEN, LI Ruqi, Nurzat ABDUKEYUM, Mayra AHAT, Xerinay TILIWALDI. Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 13-22.

Figures/Tables 8

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站名	百分位取值/mm			对应的降雨日数/d
站名	90%	95%	99%	90%	95%	99%
巴仑台	11.7	18.7	35.4	256	127	26
库米什	5.8	8.3	16.2	140	69	15
巴音布鲁克	10.1	13.9	25.1	211	103	21
和静	6.6	11.1	19.9	136	68	14
焉耆	7.6	12.2	23.7	143	73	15
和硕	8.4	13.0	25.1	149	75	16
乌什	7.4	11.5	22.2	228	113	23
阿克苏	6.2	10.4	21.3	172	87	18
温宿	6.4	10.0	20.7	167	83	17
拜城	6.2	10.1	18.5	253	126	26
新和	5.7	9.1	21.3	166	84	17
沙雅	5.8	8.7	19.0	142	72	15
轮台	5.5	9.2	20.8	150	74	16
库车	5.8	9.6	18.0	178	88	18
尉犁	6.6	10.0	21.9	112	57	13
库尔勒	6.2	9.5	18.3	143	72	15
吐尔尕特	9.2	11.0	23.0	37	19	4
阿图什	7.7	12.3	22.6	160	78	16
乌恰	8.9	13.7	24.1	255	128	26
伽师	7.4	12.1	24.8	134	66	14
阿克陶	7.4	11.9	22.6	137	70	15
喀什	7.0	11.2	22.6	139	69	14
阿合奇	9.2	14.6	28.8	312	155	32
巴楚	7.4	11.0	21.6	133	68	14
岳普湖	7.8	11.6	26.4	124	62	13
柯坪	7.7	11.4	22.4	209	104	22
阿瓦提	6.2	10.5	20.3	149	72	16
阿拉尔	5.8	9.8	19.2	135	68	14
塔中	6.4	8.2	16.5	30	18	4
铁干里克	6.3	10.6	24.0	80	41	9
若羌	6.1	9.8	25.7	65	33	7
英吉沙	7.4	11.7	21.4	137	69	14
塔什库尔干	5.4	7.4	14.1	134	66	14
麦盖提	7.4	11.1	22.4	112	57	12
莎车	7.1	12.1	25.3	112	56	12
叶城	7.8	11.7	25.5	117	60	12
泽普	7.8	12.2	23.2	110	54	12
皮山	8.6	12.1	25.0	99	49	10
策勒	8.0	12.0	27.4	73	37	8
墨玉	7.8	10.8	18.5	82	41	9
和田	7.9	11.0	16.3	83	40	9
洛浦	7.6	11.1	23.9	73	38	8
民丰	7.7	11.5	23.0	82	41	9
且末	5.8	9.0	15.8	63	32	7
于田	9.3	15.0	30.8	85	43	9

Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022

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