多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.431

Abstract

Abstract:

This study identifies the types of county shrinkage in the agro-pastoral zone of north China from 2000 to 2020 using a shrinkage degree model and multi-index comprehensive evaluation method based on the three dimensions of population, economy, and space. Furthermore, it also explores the driving factors of county shrinkage from a spatial differentiation perspective, employing a multiscale geographically weighted regression model. The results show the following. (1) Population shrinkage is the most severe, exhibiting a growth rate of 64.15% and the widest geographic coverage; this is followed by spatial shrinkage and economic shrinkage, with growth rates of 30.19% and 7.55%, respectively. (2) In terms of spatial and temporal evolution, overall county shrinkage, along with population, economic, and spatial shrinkage in individual dimensions, is primarily concentrated in the northeast of China and Inner Mongolia, indicating a trend of “encircling from the edge to the centre”. (3) Regarding the interplay of different dimensions, county shrinkage types are gradually becoming multi-dimensional: from 2000 to 2010, only unidimensional population shrinkage was observed in the agro-pastoral zone of north China, whereas from 2010 to 2020, shrinkage types diversified, exhibiting both two- and three-dimensional shrinkage, predominantly characterized by population-space shrinkage. (4) The key driving factors influencing county shrinkage in this region include local financial expenditures, educational resources, and fixed asset investments, exhibiting significant spatial variation. Therefore, implementing zonal management is crucial for achieving sustainable county development. This study enriches research perspectives on urban shrinkage and provides scientific references and theoretical support for enhancing the vitality of counties in the agro-pastoral zone of north China, ultimately contributing to high-quality urban development.

Key words: urban shrinkage, multi-dimensional perspectives, ecological security, agro-pastoral zone, north China

LUO Xiaomei, WEN Qi, SHI Linna, WU Xinyan, AN Fengping, WANG Zhenting. Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1267-1278.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 44

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准测层	准则层权重	指标层	属性	指标层权重
人口维度	0.5	常住人口/人	+	0.331
		出生率/%	+	0.266
		就业总人口/人	+	0.403
经济维度	0.3	GDP/10⁴元	+	0.265
		人均GDP/10⁴元·人^-1	+	0.212
		财政收入/10⁴元	+	0.364
		第一产业占比/%	-	0.064
		第二产业占比/%	+	0.053
		第三产业占比/%	+	0.042
空间维度	0.2	平均夜间灯光指数	+	0.416
		空城指数	+	0.388
		生态用地/km²	+	0.196

年份	全维收缩县域	双维收缩城市
年份	人口-经济-空间	人口-经济	人口-空间	经济-空间
2000—2010	无	无	无	无
2010—2020	新巴尔虎左旗、北票市、东胜区	开鲁县、科尔沁区、前郭尔罗斯蒙古族自治县、昌图县、建平县	库伦旗、肇东市、泰来县、安达市、杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县、赤城县、怀安县、阜新蒙古族自治县、万全区、蔚县、正蓝旗、武川县、浑源县、达拉特旗、伊金霍洛旗、府谷县	无

解释变量	具体指标	数据来源
经济因素	社会消费品零售总额/10⁴元	县域统计年鉴
	固定资产投资完成额/10⁴元	县域统计年鉴
	地方财政支出/10⁴元	县域统计年鉴
	规模以上企业数量/个	县域统计年鉴
社会因素	卫生、社会保障从业人数/人	人口普查数据
	在校小学生数量/人	县域统计年鉴
	距地级市距离/km	经纬度计算
自然因素	高程/m	500 m全球海洋测深DEM数据集
	年均气温/℃	1000 m国家地球栅格数据
	年均降雨量/mm	1000 m国家地球栅格数据

模型	R²	Adjusted R²	AICc	RSS
OLS	0.522	0.472	494.894	537.447
GWR	0.772	0.748	462.079	258.579
MGWR	0.780	0.729	192.995	23.280

指标	平均值	标准差	最小值	中位数	最大值	VIF	带宽
社会消费品零售总额	0.108	0.057	0.026	0.140	0.175	3.678	105
固定资产投资完成额	-0.562	0.487	-1.158	-0.854	-0.015	1.188	50
地方财政支出	0.621	0.264	0.231	0.826	0.854	2.474	82
规模以上企业数量	0.260	0.004	0.250	0.262	0.265	1.821	105
卫生、社会保障从业人数	-0.005	0.008	-0.018	-0.001	0.006	4.980	105
在校小学生数量	-0.506	0.020	-0.530	-0.501	-0.478	4.968	105
距地级市距离	0.102	0.039	0.053	0.111	0.162	1.017	105
高程	0.329	0.039	0.280	0.308	0.385	1.610	105
年均气温	0.372	0.329	0.082	0.204	1.096	1.517	54
年均降雨量	0.215	0.108	0.062	0.263	0.348	1.427	90

Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective

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