气候变化和人类活动对毛乌素沙地NDVI变化的量化分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.029

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change and human activities are the primary factors influencing vegetation dynamics. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) serves as an effective indicator for assessing vegetation changes, enabling evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and sustainability. Using SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI time series data, meteorological data, and land cover data, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of NDVI in the Mu Us Sandy Land, China, from 1998 to 2019. Employing GIS spatial analysis, correlation analysis, and residual analysis, the study quantifies the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NDVI variations. The findings reveal the following: (1) From 1998 to 2019, interannual NDVI in the Mu Us Sandy Land exhibited a significant upward trend, with a growth rate of 0.0067·a^-1. Spatially, NDVI displayed a gradual increase from northwest to southeast. However, the overall sustainability of NDVI growth was weak, indicating potential future fluctuations. (2) Both climate change and human activities jointly contributed to NDVI growth. NDVI changes were significantly positively correlated with precipitation, while correlations with temperature were weaker. Large-scale ecological projects and the interplay of climatic factors accounted for 86.30% of the observed vegetation improvement, aligning with existing studies on the impact of ecological projects. (3) Attribution analysis demonstrated that human activities contributed to 83.20% of NDVI growth, while precipitation accounted for 73.14%. The coupling effect of precipitation and human activities had a more pronounced influence on NDVI.

Key words: Mu Us Sandy Land, vegetation NDVI, climatic change, human activities, relative contribution rate

CHANG Wenjing, CONG Shixiang, WANG Rongrong, DING Xudong, YU Hailong, HUANG Juying. Quantitative analysis of NDVI changes in Mu Us Sandy Land by climate change and human activities[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(1): 63-74.

Figures/Tables 17

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Determination of the driving factors of climate change and human activities on NDVI vegetation in Mu Us Sandy Land and the calculation method of contribution rate"

$S N o b s$	驱动因素	驱动因素的划分标准		驱动因素的贡献率/%
$S N o b s$	驱动因素	$S N C C$	$S N H A$	气候变化	人类活动
>0	CC&HA	>0	>0	$S N C C S N o b s$	$S N H A S N o b s$
	CC	>0	<0	100	0
	HA	<0	>0	0	100
<0	CC&HA	<0	<0	$S N C C S N o b s$	$S N H A S N o b s$
	CC	<0	>0	100	0
	HA	>0	<0	0	100

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 4

Fig. 8

Tab. 5

Fig. 9

Tab. 6

Fig. 10

Tab. 7

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植被类型	NDVI变化的面积占比/%
植被类型	极显著增加	显著增加	不显著增加	极显著减少	显著减少	不显著减少
栽培植被	16.38	0.94	0.96	0.16	0.02	0.13
阔叶林	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
灌丛	1.19	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.03
荒漠	2.10	0.58	2.80	0.05	0.02	0.87
草原	43.88	5.31	16.37	0.26	0.07	2.69
草丛	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
草甸	3.20	0.38	0.57	0.02	0.01	0.12
沼泽	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
其他	0.34	0.07	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.04

NDVI变化幅度（E）	Hurst指数（H）	NDVI变化	像元数/个	面积占比/%
E>0	H>0.5	持续改善	24209	30.09
E>0	H<0.5	反持续改善	51472	63.99
E<0	H>0.5	持续退化	949	1.18
E<0	H<0.5	反持续退化	3813	4.74

偏相关系数	降水		气温
偏相关系数	像元数/个	面积占比/%	像元数/个	面积占比/%
显著正相关	58836	73.14	577	0.72
不显著正相关	19888	24.72	32106	39.91
显著负相关	494	0.61	6187	7.69
不显著负相关	1225	1.52	41573	51.68

趋势值	对NDVI 的影响	气候变化		人类活动
趋势值	对NDVI 的影响	像元数/个	面积占比/%	像元数/个	面积占比/%
<-0.0005	抑制	452	0.56	7621	9.53
-0.0005~0.0005	基本无影响	5084	6.32	5818	7.27
>0.0005	促进	74907	93.12	66561	83.20

NDVI趋势	驱动力	像元数/个	面积占比/%
>0	CC&HA	49895	86.30
	CC	5792	10.02
	HA	467	0.81
<0	CC&HA	180	0.31
	CC	59	0.10
	HA	1425	2.46

Quantitative analysis of NDVI changes in Mu Us Sandy Land by climate change and human activities

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贡献率/%	气候变化		人类活动
贡献率/%	像元数/个	面积占比/%	像元数/个	面积占比/%
<-20	2290	3.86	5080	8.61
-20~0	1040	1.76	1946	3.30
0~20	7652	12.91	3552	6.02
20~40	18546	31.30	8929	15.14
40~60	13088	22.09	13756	23.32
60~80	6714	11.33	11119	18.85
≥80	9926	16.75	14604	24.76

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