中国西北地区气候转型的新认识

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.331

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, the issue of climate change in northwest China has aroused widespread concern from many walks of life. Shi Yafeng proposed in 2002 that the climate in northwest China may be changing from warm and dry to warm and wet. Since then, scholars have gradually paid more attention to the phenomenon of “warmer and wetter” in the northwest climate. From the beginning of the 21^st century, a trend of increasing temperatures has become more pronounced, and changes in precipitation have diverged from the predictions of previous studies. Against this background, what recent changes have taken place in temperature and precipitation in northwest China? In particular, has the climate undergone a dry-wet transition in the past 20 years due to rising temperatures and increased precipitation? Has the region itself changed in response? This contribution analyzed average temperature and precipitation data for northwest China from 1960 to 2019. From this, temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change were assessed, revealing more about the possible transformation to warm, humid conditions. Such changes are significant to the ecological environment, social and economic development, human production, and life practices in northwest China, and their understanding provides a basis for responding to climate change and disaster prevention or mitigation across northwest China. The study found that: (1) Average temperature and precipitation both showed an upward trend in northwest China from 1960 to 2019, with a significant warming trend and a weaker humidification trend. (2) Since 1997, both temperature and precipitation have risen rapidly, especially in the eastern part of northwest China, where the rate of increase in precipitation has exceeded that of the western part over the same period. Moreover, this research suggests that, since 1997, northwest China has indeed experienced a warm and humid climatic transition; the onset of this transition was earlier than previously recognized. (3) Compared with previous studies, the geographic character of the climate transition has also changed: east Gansu Province has changed from a non-transition area to an area of significant climatic transition; and the eastern and western areas of Qinghai Province have changed from mild transition areas to areas of significant transition.

Key words: northwest China, climatic change, warm-wet shift, spatial-temporal pattern, standardized precipitation index (SPI)

YAO Xuyang,ZHANG Mingjun,ZHANG Yu,WANG Jiaxin,XIAO Hanyu. New insights into climate transition in northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 671-683.

Figures/Tables 11

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标准化降水指数（SPI）	旱涝等级
-0.5<SPI≤0.5	正常
-1.0<SPI≤-0.5	轻微干旱
-1.5<SPI≤-1.0	中等干旱
-2.0<SPI≤-1.5	严重干旱
SPI≤-2.0	极端干旱

New insights into climate transition in northwest China

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