城市化进程中技术创新对环境污染的影响研究——基于动态联立方程模型

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015, this paper studied the two-way mechanism of urbanization, technological innovation and environmental pollution of China with gray relational analysis,simultaneous equations and scenario simulation. The empirical results show as follows:(1)the grey relational analysis showed that there was a strong coupling effect between the urbanization ratio and industrial structure and the intensity of R&D expenditure. A strong correlation between the environmental pollutant emissions, GDP and human capital stock was found. For the technology innovation, there was a strong correlation with the material capital stock and GDP in the central and western regions of China, and with the urbanization ratio and industrial structure in the eastern areas.(2)The simultaneous equations showed that urbanization and technological innovation shared a two-way feedback in the eastern provinces which indicated that the technological innovation was increased by 1 percentage if the urbanization was increased by 2.07%, and the urbanization was increased by one percentage when the technology innovation level was increased by 0.14%. In the western provinces, urbanization and science and technology innovation did not share such relationship and the urbanization did not affect the technology innovation directly. The role of material capital stock in the economically underdeveloped areas was more obvious than that in the economically developed regions. For the pollutants in specific areas, the EKC curve was not necessarily applicable. The pattern did not necessarily exist that the pollutants get increased first and then decreased along the increase of the urbanization ratio. The turning point was not necessarily linked with the economic development level.(3)The impact simulation of the scenario analysis showd that the improvement of R&D investment intensity had significant effect on the pollutants emission reduction in eastern and central regions, and its effect on the promotion of science and technology innovation in central China was obvious, and also its effect on the urbanization in central China was most obvious. China should pay more attention on the green technology while stressing the technology innovation. According to the actual regional development, the differentiated urbanization strategy should be implemented.

Key words: urbanization, technological innovation, environmental pollution, simultaneous equations, scenario simulation

CLC Number:

HAO Han-zhou, WU Ze-yu. Impact of technological innovation on environmental pollution in process of urbanization: Based on dynamic simultaneous equations model[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(3): 592-600.

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Impact of technological innovation on environmental pollution in process of urbanization: Based on dynamic simultaneous equations model

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