基于TVDI的近20 a吐鲁番市干旱及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.234

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of an intensifying global greenhouse effect, accurate drought monitoring is critical for ensuring regional ecological security, economic development, and agricultural production. Turpan City, a key base for grape and cantaloupe cultivation in Xinjiang and a significant transportation hub on the Silk Road in China, holds a strategic position. In recent years, water resource scarcity due to the city’s geographic and climatic conditions has exacerbated drought issues, impeding the long-term and stable socio-economic development of Turpan City and its surrounding regions. This study establishes the temperature-vegetation drought index (TVDI) model using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index and land surface temperature data from 2001—2022. The spatial and temporal variations of drought in Turpan City over the past 20 years and its evolving patterns were analyzed using trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and Geodetector methods. Additionally, the influence of various factors (including mean annual temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, land cover type, population density, elevation, and slope) on TVDI was investigated. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of TVDI in Turpan City exhibits distinct regional characteristics, with a gradual increase in aridity from north to south. Analysis of the trends reveals that the overall aridity of Turpan City has intensified, with 89.6% of the area showing a significant increase in TVDI, 6.9% showing a non-significant increase, and only 3.5% showing no increase in aridity. (2) The interannual trend of TVDI demonstrates a progressive increase in drought severity over the past 20 years, peaking in 2022. Notably, there are marked seasonal differences in the monthly variability of TVDI, generally following the order spring>autumn>summer. (3) Single-factor analysis highlights that potential evapotranspiration, temperature, and elevation are the top three factors influencing drought trends in Turpan City. Under multifactor interactions, potential evapotranspiration interacts with elevation, temperature, precipitation, and land cover to collectively drive aridification.

Key words: drought, temperature-vegetation drought index (TVDI), trend analysis, Geodetector, Turpan City

ZHOU Xiaoming, ZHANG Zhe, ZHANG Yue, WANG Yuning. TVDI-based analysis of drought and influencing factors in Turpan City in the last 20 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(12): 2104-2114.

Figures/Tables 8

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年份	拟合干边公式	R²	拟合湿边公式	R²
2001	T_s=51.1-41.1NDVI	0.85	T_s=3.97+74.6NDVI	0.75
2002	T_s=52.6-41.6NDVI	0.87	T_s=5.37+61.6NDVI	0.73
2003	T_s=54.4-43.3NDVI	0.86	T_s=3.11+75.0NDVI	0.77
2004	T_s=53.9-41.5NDVI	0.83	T_s=6.00+64.6NDVI	0.75
2005	T_s=53.2-38.5NDVI	0.89	T_s=3.05+65.5NDVI	0.78
2006	T_s=51.1-36.6NDVI	0.81	T_s=5.32+62.6NDVI	0.75
2007	T_s=51.1-36.7NDVI	0.86	T_s=4.48+56.9NDVI	0.68
2008	T_s=52.5-38.1NDVI	0.75	T_s=4.72+59.4NDVI	0.71
2009	T_s=52.1-37.4NDVI	0.87	T_s=4.90+56.8NDVI	0.67
2010	T_s=50.5-38.3NDVI	0.85	T_s=3.48+68.3NDVI	0.78
2011	T_s=51.8-37.4NDVI	0.84	T_s=3.68+69.7NDVI	0.75
2012	T_s=52.2-34.8NDVI	0.83	T_s=4.15+66.9NDVI	0.79
2013	T_s=53.0-37.0NDVI	0.86	T_s=3.95+54.6NDVI	0.69
2014	T_s=52.2-39.2NDVI	0.85	T_s=4.62+54.7NDVI	0.57
2015	T_s=52.3-35.1NDVI	0.88	T_s=2.06+65.8NDVI	0.74
2016	T_s=53.0-35.0NDVI	0.85	T_s=4.79+57.7NDVI	0.73
2017	T_s=52.7-33.5NDVI	0.86	T_s=3.76+63.9NDVI	0.77
2018	T_s=52.6-38.4NDVI	0.89	T_s=3.50+62.8NDVI	0.74
2019	T_s=51.7-35.5NDVI	0.78	T_s=4.56+56.5NDVI	0.71
2020	T_s=53.4-36.9NDVI	0.90	T_s=2.44+63.0NDVI	0.72
2021	T_s=54.0-36.5NDVI	0.81	T_s=4.06+58.7NDVI	0.76
2022	T_s=54.2-37.6NDVI	0.88	T_s=5.41+59.0NDVI	0.71

影响因子	气温	降雨量	蒸散发	坡度	高程	土地覆被类型	人口密度
气温	0.880^*	0.904	0.912	0.895	0.892	0.889	0.884
降雨量	-	0.789^*	0.914	0.833	0.890	0.844	0.802
蒸散发	-	-	0.906^*	0.909	0.911	0.911	0.908
坡度	-	-	-	0.504^*	0.882	0.684	0.514
高程	-	-	-	-	0.870^*	0.884	0.875
土地利用类型	-	-	-	-	-	0.486^*	0.548
人口密度	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.007^*

TVDI-based analysis of drought and influencing factors in Turpan City in the last 20 years

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