1956—2021年疏勒河上游山区洪水变化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.558

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on measured flood data for 1956—2021 from the Changmabao hydrological station at the outlet of the Changma River in the upper reaches of the Shule River, northwest China, and on temperature and precipitation data from Yu’erhong rainfall station and Tuole meteorological station in the vicinity of the basin, the variation characteristics of annual maximum peak discharge (AMPD), peaks over threshold (POT3M), and floods based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at different levels were sampled and analyzed using Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed the following: (1) Both the magnitude and frequency of floods at the Changmabao hydrological station during the studied period significantly increased, with AMPD and POT3M magnitudes showing highly significant increases (P<0.01) and POT3M frequency showing significant increases (P<0.05). Based on the GEV distribution, floods were mainly small floods and the frequency of total floods was highly significant (P<0.01). (2) Temperature and precipitation showed a fluctuating increasing trend after 1987, and heavy precipitation and increased meltwater from glaciers, alpine snow, and permafrost due to warming were the main causes of the observed significant increases in flood magnitude and frequency in the three sampled series.

Key words: Shule River, Changmabao hydrological station, flood, variation characteristics

WANG Xueliang, CHEN Rensheng, LIU Junfeng, CAO Shanshan. Characteristics of flood changes in mountainous areas of upper Shule River from 1956 to 2021[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1260-1268.

Figures/Tables 13

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References 35

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河流	观测站点	观测项目	流域面积/10⁴ km²	海拔/m	经度	纬度	数据系列
疏勒河	昌马堡水文站	流量	1.0961	2080	96°51′	39°49′	1956—2021年
	鱼儿红雨量站	降水	-	3030	97°06′	39°26′	1956—2021年
	托勒气象站	气温、降水	-	3367	98°25′	38°48′	1956—2021年

河流	水文站	平均洪峰			最大洪峰				最小洪峰			极值比
河流	水文站	流量/m³·s^-1	变异系数		流量/m³·s^-1	出现年份	与多年均值比		流量/m³·s^-1	出现年份	与多年均值比	极值比
疏勒河	昌马堡	322	0.43		718	1999	2.23		89.2	1956	0.28	8.05

河流	水文站	重现期阈值/m³·s^-1
河流	水文站	1 a	5 a	20 a
疏勒河	昌马堡	98	420	585

Characteristics of flood changes in mountainous areas of upper Shule River from 1956 to 2021

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