京藏高速青海东部地区汛期路面水膜厚度变化特征及预报模型构建

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.088

Abstract

Abstract:

The research uses the hourly measured data from the traffic automatic monitoring station along the Qinghai Provincial Highway of the Beijing-Tibet Expressway during the flood season (May-September) of 2018—2020, study the change feature of the variety of the pavement water film thickness, and finally build the forecast model between the water film thickness and meteorological factors. The results showed that: (1) The hourly pavement water film thickness at Gaomiaoqiao station and Hanzhuangcun station of Beijing-Tibet Expressway was mainly distributed between 0.0 mm and 0.2 mm, and the frequencies were 66.0% and 63.0%, respectively. There would be a small frequency (10.0%) when the pavement water film thickness over 0.5 mm, and both stations belong to strong variability areas. (2) The relative threshold method was used for statistical analysis, and it was found that the proportions of the pavement water film thickness within 0.1 mm at the two stations were 33.8% and 36.3%, respectively. The proportions of the pavement water film thickness between 0.1 mm and 0.6 mm were 59.2% and 56.0%, respectively. When the pavement water film thickness was over 0.7 mm, it is easy to slip, 7.0% and 7.6% of the vehicles were unstable and out of control respectively. (3) The daily and monthly variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness were obvious. The monthly variation of water film thickness at Gaomiaoqiao station and Hanzhuangcun station both showed a weak bimodal character, and the monthly variation trend of the two stations was not completely consistent. The peak of daily variation appeared at 02:00—06:00, and the low point appeared at 14:00—16:00, the peak appeared at 06:00 and the low point appeared at 16:00 at Hanzhuang Village station. (4) With the increase of precipitation intensity, the average water film thickness increased rapidly following the power function; when the precipitation intensity was between 0.00 mm·h^-1 and 1.75 mm·h^-1, the precipitation intensity was greater than 1.76 mm·h^-1, and the average water film thickness increased and decreased. (5) The model of water film thickness based on meteorological factors and different precipitation intensities was established by using multiple regression statistical method, which has good operational value and can be popularized in practical work. (6) The calculated values of the water film thickness model under different precipitation intensities are significantly higher than those of the Ji Tianjian model and the Luo Jing model. The variation trend of the model presented in this article is more consistent with the Luo Jing model, the water film thickness increases obviously with the increase of rainfall intensity, and the calculated value of water film thickness increases slowly with the increase of rainfall intensity.

Key words: water film thickness, precipitation, forecast model, Beijing-Tibet Expressway

DAI Qingcuo, BAO Guangyu, QI Donglin, LI Yonghua, LIU Jiaru, ZHANG Jing, LI Baohua. Variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness in flood season and construction of forecast model for Beijing-Tibet Expressway in the eastern part of Qinghai[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(6): 1814-1823.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 23

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设备型号	测量要素	范围	分辨率	准确度
温湿度传感器DHC2	气温/℃	-50~60	0.1	±0.1
温湿度传感器DHC2	相对湿度/%	0~100	1.0	±2.0（≤90%）、±3.0（>90%）
风向风速传感器ZQZ-TF	风速/m·s^-1	0~75	0.1	±（0.3+0.03 V）
雨量传感器SL3-1	降水量/mm	0~400（固态） 0~999.9（液态）	0.1	±0.4（≤10 mm）、±4.0（>10 mm）
路面温度传感器ZQZ-TW120	路面温度/℃	-60~80	0.1	±0.2
道面状况传感器WUSH-IRS31	水膜厚度/mm	0.00~10.00	0.01	-

级别	影响程度	划分标准	比例/%	对应措施
1级	正常	路面水膜厚度在0.1 mm以内	35.1	可接受
2级	差	路面水膜厚度在0.1~0.2 mm之间	29.5	需考虑水膜影响
3级	较差	路面水膜厚度在0.3~0.6 mm之间	28.1	需考虑水膜影响
4级	很差	路面水膜厚度大于0.7 mm以上	7.3	易发生水滑，引起车辆失稳、失控等危险

月份	回归方程	R²	F	平均误差	均方根误差	观测值与拟合值相关系数
5	SM=-0.243+0.173×R+0.004×HU	0.418	104.876	0.06	0.20	0.66
6	SM=0.040+0.138×R+0.198×SM_Q	0.508	135.107	0.06	0.20	0.71
7	SM=-0.318+0.102×R+0.004×HU+0.118×SM_Q	0.459	97.436	0.06	0.22	0.68
8	SM=0.501+0.108×R-0.023×T	0.428	151.763	0.05	0.22	0.65
9	SM=-0.226+0.096×R+0.003×HU+0.018×SM_Q	0.473	87.220	0.06	0.20	0.69
5—9	SM=-0.098+0.110×R-0.005×T+0.003×HU+0.095×SM_Q	0.445	361.853	-0.01	0.19	0.67

Variation characteristics of pavement water film thickness in flood season and construction of forecast model for Beijing-Tibet Expressway in the eastern part of Qinghai

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