克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.02

Abstract

Abstract: In order to objectively evaluate the effect of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay,Xinjiang,China,it is need to analyze the systematic significance of snowfall enhancement.In this paper,utilizing the sequence test,unpaired rank sum test and t-test of statistical methods,the systematic differences of annual precipitation in December of the former historical period 31 a and the latter period 29 a of the carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement are analyzed in Karamay, with annual precipitation data of Karamay Weather Station in December from 1957-2016,as a beginning to carry out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in 1988.The results show that the precipitation in December in Karamay was significantly increased in December after the operation of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement,regardless of the maximum, minimum and average value.It added 2.3 mm, 1.1 mm and 2.02 mm respectively.In particular, the minimum rainfall period is 12 times that of the historical period.This would play a positive role in alleviating the shortage of water resources.The inspection significance level of non-parameter unpaired rank sum test is 0.025,and the inspection significance level of parametric t-test is also close to 0.025.According to the calculation, the absolute increase of the precipitation in Karamay in December is 1.15 mm,and the relative enhancive rate is 24.5% after carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay when the statistical significant level α=0.1 is chosen.Therefore, through carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter, it is significant for the precipitation enhancement in Karamay,it has a certain effect on the local tense production and domestic water consumption in arid areas.Remarkable social and economic benefits.This paper makes a reasonable utility of statistical methods to analyze the effects of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in the winter in Karamay,and concludes the qualitative conclusions and the quantitative results.It is of some guiding significance to design and evaluate the application of aircraft artificial precipitation enhancement in science.

Key words: aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement, effect, statistical analysis

CLC Number:

P481

LI Bin, ZHENG Bo-hua, LAN Wen-jie, YANG Lin. Statistical analysis of effect of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter at Karamay[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 686-692.

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Statistical analysis of effect of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter at Karamay

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