基于Budyko模型的巴音布鲁克山区暖季人工增水作业效果分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.023

Abstract

Abstract:

Although precipitation serves as a common statistical indicator, its utility is limited by the availability of representative station data, which is affected by geographical, economic, technical, and other effects. Such limitations can introduce inaccuracies in the assessment of the effectiveness of artificial precipitation enhancement. To address these challenges, this study focused on daily meteorological data from the Bayanbulak meteorological station and monthly runoff data from the Dashankou hydrological station in Xinjiang, China, from May to September in 1973—2018. This study involved building a runoff simulation equation using the Budyko model. To objectively and quantitatively analyze the impact of artificial precipitation enhancement in the Bayanbulak mountain area during warm seasons, sequence tests, unpaired rank sum tests, and t-tests were used. The results show the following: (1) The use of the Budyko model for building simulated runoff not only synchronized with the changing trends and growth rates of precipitation but also demonstrated a highly significant correlation (R²=0.9971, P<0.001). This shows that the simulated runoff not only captured the overall precipitation trends but also quantified the impact of precipitation on runoff. (2) Utilizing an unpaired rank sum test and t-test, it was found that both precipitation and runoff significantly increased (P<0.02) after artificial precipitation enhancement when considering measured runoff, simulated runoff, and precipitation as statistical variables. (3) The best statistical indicator for assessing the impact of artificial precipitation enhancement was precipitation, accounting for only 11.59% of the added value to statistically test the effect. Compared with the measured runoff, the test efficiency value of the simulated runoff decreased by 3.72%, indicating that the test efficiency was improved. (4) With a selected significance level of a 90% confidence interval, the absolute increase in precipitation was 5.38 mm, representing a relative increase rate of 12.05%. The absolute increase in the simulated runoff was 4.53 m³·s^-1, indicating a relative increase rate of 14.70%. The absolute increase in the measured runoff was 28.48 m³·s^-1, corresponding to a relative increase rate of 18.48%. This indicates the important impact of artificial precipitation enhancement during the warm seasons in the operation period (1994—2018) compared with the historical period (1973—1993) in the Bayanbulak mountain area.

Key words: artificial precipitation enhancement, statistical analysis, effect evaluation, Bayanbuluk mountain area

DIAO Peng,LI Gang,YUAN Xianlei,WEN Chun. Effect of artificial precipitation enhancement in Bayanbulak mountain area in warm seasons based on Budyko model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(12): 1963-1972.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 1

Sequence test analysis"

统计变量	历史期均值 $（ y n ）$	作业期均值 $（ y k ）$	绝对增加值 $（ Δ E ）$
降水量/mm	43.53	51.79	8.26
模拟径流量/m³·s^-1	29.88	36.81	6.93
实测径流量/m³·s^-1	152.55	188.07	35.52

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Tab. 3

F-test for homogeneity of variance"

时期	降水量		模拟径流量		实测径流量		自由度		F_0.05 （ $α$ =0.05）
时期	方差	F	方差	F	方差	F	$n 1$	$n 2$	F_0.05 （ $α$ =0.05）
1973—1993年	38.680	1.997	28.615	1.889	382.805	4.324	20	24	3.226
1994—2018年	77.241	1.997	54.051	1.889	1655.103	4.324	20	24	3.226

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

t-test analysis"

统计变量	检验功效（d）/%	t	z	自由度（ $υ$ ）	$t 0.1$ （ $α = 0.1$ ）	$t 0.2$ （ $α = 0.2$ ）	显著性水平（P）	相对增加量（E）	相对增率（R）/%
降水量	11.59	3.493	-	45	1.301	0.681	0.0006	5.38 mm	12.05
模拟径流量	14.04	3.456	-	45	1.301	0.681	0.0006	4.53 m³·s^-1	14.70
实测径流量	17.76	-	3.985	93	1.291	0.677	0.0001	28.48 m³·s^-1	18.48

Tab. 4

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Effect of artificial precipitation enhancement in Bayanbulak mountain area in warm seasons based on Budyko model

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统计变量	历史期样本容量（n₁）	作业期样本容量（n₂）	秩和（T）	统计检验值（u）	显著性水平（P）
降水量	21	25	378	-2.56	0.011
模拟径流量	21	25	382	-2.45	0.014
实测径流量	21	25	363	-2.87	0.004

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