1978—2023年陇东冰雹气候特征及其影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.582

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 冰雹是强对流引起的极端天气之一，发展速度快，危害性大，尤其是对农业经济为主体的陇东地区具有极大的威胁。在气候变暖背景下，有必要深入研究陇东冰雹气候特征及其影响因素。利用1978—2023年陇东地区15个县区地面观测站记录的冰雹数据和灾情资料，结合ECMWF提供的ERA5再分析资料，利用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析法等方法分析了陇东地区冰雹时空分布特征及关键影响因素。结果表明：（1）陇东地区冰雹日数空间分布不均匀，呈现西北、东南多，中部、南部少的特征，多雹区主要位于下坡地形、山脉背风坡及子午岭山区，少雹区主要位于平坦的塬区及六盘山南部。（2）近46 a冰雹日数呈减少趋势，且春季减少趋势最显著；5—8月为冰雹高发期，占全年冰雹日数的81.5%。（3）冰雹日变化呈现“单峰型”特征，15:00—18:00为冰雹多发时段；持续时间0~9 min及直径中等的降雹频率最高；局地性冰雹频率远高于区域性冰雹，但区域性冰雹具有显著增加趋势。（4）冰雹日数存在3 a的主震荡周期以及14 a、35 a的次震荡周期。（5）不同季节影响冰雹日数的主导气象因素不同，对流有效位能（CAPE）、0 ℃层高度对陇东冰雹日数最具有主导作用。研究结果可认识陇东冰雹发生规律，为优化预报预警模型和人工防雹工作提供科学参考。

关键词: 冰雹, 气候特征, 影响因素, 气候变暖, 陇东

Abstract:

Hail is an extreme weather phenomenon caused by intense convective activity, characterized by rapid development and substantial damage, particularly threatening to the Longdong region, eastern Gansu Province, China where agriculture constitutes the economic backbone. In the context of climate change, it is imperative to investigate the climatic characteristics of hail in Longdong and identify its influencing factors. Utilizing hail observation and disaster records from 15 regional meteorological stations spanning from 1978 to 2023, along with ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study employs linear trend estimation, the Mann-Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the spatial-temporal distribution of hail and its key drivers. The results indicate the following: (1) Hail days exhibit uneven spatial distribution, with higher frequencies in the northwest and southeast, and lower frequencies in the central and southern regions. Hail-prone zones are predominantly situated on downslope terrains, leeward mountain slopes, and the Ziwuling Mountains, while hail-scarce areas are concentrated in the flat loess plateau and southern Liupan Mountains. (2) Over the past 46 years, hail days have declined, with the sharpest decrease observed in spring. Hail predominantly occurs between May and August, accounting for 81.5% of annual hail events. (3) The diurnal variation of hail follows a single-peak pattern, with peak occurrences between 15:00 and 18:00. Hail events of short duration (0-9 minutes) and medium diameter are most frequent. Localized hail occurs more frequently than regional hail, though the incidence of the latter is increasing significantly. (4) A primary oscillation period of 3 years, and secondary cycles of 14 and 35 years, characterize hail frequency. (5) The principal meteorological drivers of hail vary seasonally, with convective available potential energy and the 0 ℃ isotherm height being the most influential. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding hail occurrence patterns in Longdong and serve as a reference for enhancing forecasting and early warning systems, as well as for guiding artificial hail suppression strategies.

Key words: hail, climatic characteristics, influencing factors, climate change, eastern Gansu Province

张可心, 赵玉娟, 李美瑜. 1978—2023年陇东冰雹气候特征及其影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(8): 1374-1384.

ZHANG Kexin, ZHAO Yujuan, LI Meiyu. Hail climate characteristics and influencing factors in eastern Gansu Province from 1978 to 2023[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1374-1384.

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大气物理参数	春季	夏季	秋季
2 m气温/K	-0.440^**	-0.031	-0.121
2 m露点温度/K	0.360^*	-0.038	-0.142
对流有效位能（CAPE）/J·kg^-1	0.554^***	0.169	0.480^***
云底高度/m	-0.457^**	0.113	0.069
对流性降水/mm	0.316^*	-0.005	0.026
K指数/℃	0.393^**	0.155	-0.152
总降水量/mm	0.346^*	-0.164	-0.090
0 ℃层高度/m	-0.305^*	-0.291^*	-0.209