中国农业农村现代化发展水平测度及其协调性研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.339

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推进农业农村现代化是全面建设社会主义现代化强国的重大任务。通过构建评价指标体系测度2010—2020年中国30个省（市、区）的农业农村现代化发展水平并分析其时空特征，引入耦合协调度模型分析农业现代化与农村现代化协调性并探索其空间相关性，通过判断相对滞后类型发现农业农村现代化发展的短板。结果显示：（1） 2010—2020年中国农业农村现代化、农村现代化和农业现代化发展水平均为波动上升趋势；农业农村现代化中高和高水平等级小范围集聚在沿海地区，其余地区则均为中低和低水平等级；农业现代化发展水平和农村现代化发展水平空间分布差异较大。（2）农业现代化与农村现代化耦合协调度不断提高，但高值与低值集聚区对立趋势增强。（3）耦合协调等级优劣与农业农村现代化发展水平等级高低呈同向相关。初级协调及以上类型中上海、天津、北京表现为农业现代化发展水平相对滞后，山东、浙江、福建表现为农村现代化发展水平相对滞后，江苏、广东则较均衡发展；其他地区属于勉强协调及以下类型，表现为农村现代化发展水平相对滞后或农业现代化发展水平和农村现代化发展水平“双低”且失调。

关键词: 农业农村现代化, 发展水平, 耦合协调, 时空特征

Abstract:

Promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas is a major task in the overall development of a powerful socialist modernization country. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system to measure the level of agricultural and rural modernization development in 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) of China from 2010 to 2020 and analyzes their spatiotemporal characteristics. The coupling coordination degree model is introduced to analyze the coordination between agricultural and rural modernization and to explore its spatial correlation. Identify the shortcomings of agricultural and rural modernization development by judging the lagging types. The results are as follows: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the level of agricultural and rural modernization, rural modernization, and agricultural modernization development in China exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. Higher levels of agricultural and rural modernization are concentrated in small areas along the coast, whereas the rest of the areas are at lower levels. Furthermore, there is a significant spatial difference between the development level of agricultural and rural modernization. (2) The coupling and coordination between agricultural and rural modernization are constantly improving; however, the trend of opposition between high and low-value agglomeration areas is increasing. (3) Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing have a relatively low level of agricultural modernization development; Shandong, Zhejiang, and Fujian have a relatively low level of rural modernization development, whereas Jiangsu and Guangdong have a balanced level of both. Other regions belong to the category of barely coordinated or below, with backward levels of rural modernization development or low and imbalanced levels of agricultural and rural modernization development.

Key words: agricultural and rural modernization, development level, coupling coordination, spatiotemporal characteristics

孟晓, 田明华, 杜磊, 马爽. 中国农业农村现代化发展水平测度及其协调性研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(1): 137-146.

MENG Xiao, TIAN Minghua, DU Lei, MA Shuang. Measurement and its coordination of the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 137-146.

图/表 8

表1

农业与农村现代化发展水平评价指标体系"

领域指标	趋向指标	具体指标	计算公式	属性	平均权重
农业现代化	生产投入	人均农业生产性固定资产投资额^[21,25]	农业生产性固定资产投资额/第一产业从业人员数量	正向	0.047
		单位面积机械总动力^[12,21]	农用机械总动力/农作物播种面积	正向	0.030
		有效灌溉率^[21-22,26]	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积	正向	0.031
		农业科技人员占比^[21]	农业科技人员数量/第一产业从业人员数量	正向	0.030
	产业经营	农林牧渔服务业产值占比^[10,22]	农林牧渔服务业产值/农林牧渔业总产值	正向	0.023
		农业劳动生产率^{[18,21-22,25]}	农林牧渔业总产值/第一产业从业人员数量	正向	0.022
		乡村非农产业从业人员占比^[11,19]	乡村非农产业从业人员数量/乡村从业人员数量	正向	0.015
	产出能力	肉类综合生产能力^[23]	肉类总产量	正向	0.032
		粮食综合生产能力^[24]	粮食总产量	正向	0.036
		土地产出率^[10,12]	农林牧渔总产值/耕地面积	正向	0.034
	可持续发展	化肥负荷水平^[21,25]	化肥使用量/耕地面积	负向	0.012
		农药负荷水平^[21,25]	农药使用量/耕地面积	负向	0.009
		万元GDP耗水^[10,25]	农业用水量/农林牧渔总产值	负向	0.013
农村现代化	基础设施	自来水普及率^{[10-11,10,18]}	直接获得	正向	0.018
		燃气普及率^[10,18]	直接获得	正向	0.047
		村中内硬化道路占比^[23]	农村硬化道路里程/农村全道路里程	正向	0.019
		宽带普及率^[10,18]	农村宽带接入用户/乡村人口数	正向	0.032
	农民生活	城乡居民收入比^[22-23,25]	城镇居民可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入	负向	0.012
		农民人均消费支出^[10,19]	直接获得	正向	0.034
		农村居民每百户汽车拥有量^[10-11,19]	直接获得	正向	0.028
		农村居民人均生活用电量^[18-19]	乡村人民生活用电量/乡村人口数	正向	0.102
	乡村治理	村委会规模	村委会工作人员数/村委会个数	正向	0.014
		农村居民受教育水平^[12]	农村居民初中以上学历人数	正向	0.011
		农村卫生人员覆盖率^[10,18,22]	农村每千人口卫生技术人员数	正向	0.049
		律师及公证人员覆盖率	律师及公证人员数/乡村人口数	正向	0.109
	生态环境	污水处理率^[10,18,23]	直接获得	正向	0.068
		生活垃圾处理率^[10,18]	直接获得	正向	0.021
		森林覆盖率^[12,21]	直接获得	正向	0.023
		无害化厕所普及率^[18]	直接获得	正向	0.020
	文明建设	农村居民人均文教娱乐支出^[11,18,22]	直接获得	正向	0.028
		乡村文化站覆盖率^[10,22]	乡镇文化站数/乡村人口数	正向	0.022
		农村居民文盲比重^[22]	直接获得	负向	0.009

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

图3

表4

图4

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年份	耦合度	耦合协调度	耦合协调等级
2010	1.000	0.100	严重失调
2011	0.814	0.244	中度失调
2012	0.999	0.425	濒临失调
2013	1.000	0.570	勉强协调
2014	0.992	0.673	初级协调
2015	0.981	0.712	中级协调
2016	0.993	0.706	中级协调
2017	0.996	0.825	良好协调
2018	0.999	0.928	优质协调
2019	1.000	0.953	优质协调
2020	1.000	0.995	优质协调

年份	全局莫兰指数	Z值
2010	0.491	4.752
2015	0.485	4.660
2020	0.522	5.042

耦合协调等级	农业农村现代化发展水平
耦合协调等级	低水平	中低水平	中高水平	高水平
严重失调	甘肃	-	-	-
中度失调	山西、云南、贵州	重庆	-	-
轻度失调	内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、陕西、青海	-	-	-
濒临失调	-	黑龙江、河南、广西、海南、宁夏、新疆、四川	-	-
勉强协调	-	安徽、湖北、江西、湖南、河北	-	-
初级协调	-	-	福建、天津、山东、广东、	-
中级协调	-	-	北京、江苏、浙江	-
优质协调	-	-	-	上海