中国西北农作制区耕地利用“显-隐性”形态耦合协调度研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

深入研究耕地利用形态对实现耕地高效利用、保障粮食供应具有重要意义。构建耕地利用形态综合评价指标体系，运用时空统计方法，探讨2010—2021年中国西北农作制区耕地利用“显-隐性”形态耦合协调度的时空演化特征，并运用障碍度分解模型分析耕地利用的障碍指标。结果表明：（1）中国西北农作制区耕地利用显性、隐性形态存在不同步发展，滞后发展区域分异特征显著；耕地利用“显-隐性”形态耦合协调度水平不高，各亚区均存在明显的极化分布特征。（2）耕地利用“显-隐性”形态耦合协调度区域内差异呈波动下降趋势，区域间差异贡献率逐渐上升成为总体差异的首要来源，各亚区均存在空间收敛特征。（3）耕地利用主要受到耕地数量结构、景观特征、集约化水平以及生产功能等因素限制。将上述因素作为关键瞄准，应提高水资源的合理运用、推进适宜性耕地的保护开发、缓解障碍指标的掣肘，促进耕地利用“显-隐性”形态耦合发展，以期为中国西北农作制区耕地利用的可持续发展提供合理的科学参考。

关键词: 农作制, 耕地利用, 显性形态, 隐性形态, 耦合协调度

Abstract:

Studying cropland utilization patterns is crucial for achieving efficient cropland use and ensuring food security. This study explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the “explicit-implicit” patterns coupling coordination degree of cropland utilization in the farming regions of northwest China from 2010 to 2021. A comprehensive evaluation index system of cropland utilization patterns was constructed, and spatiotemporal statistical methods were employed. The obstacle factors of cropland utilization were analyzed using the barrier degree decomposition model. The results showed that: (1) The explicit and implicit patterns of cropland utilization in northwest China’s farming systems developed asynchronously, with significant regional differentiation and backward development. The coupling coordination degree between explicit and implicit patterns of cropland utilization remained low, exhibiting a pronounced polarization in each sub-region. (2) The intra-regional differences in the coupling coordination degree of “explicit-implicit” patterns of cropland utilization displayed a fluctuating downward trend, while the contribution rate of inter-regional differences gradually increased, becoming the main source of overall variation. Each sub-region demonstrated spatial convergence characteristics. (3) Cropland utilization is primarily constrained by factors such as cropland quantity structure, landscape characteristics, intensive level, and production function. To address these limitations, the study suggests improving the rational use of water resources, promoting the protection and development of suitable cultivated land, and alleviating the impact of obstacle factors. These measures aim to develop a suitable farming system and enhance the coupling development of “explicit-implicit” patterns of cropland utilization, providing a scientific reference for the sustainable development of cropland utilization in the farming systems of northwest China.

Key words: farming system, cropland utilization, explicit pattern, implicit pattern, coupling coordination degree

李海央, 杨敏. 中国西北农作制区耕地利用“显-隐性”形态耦合协调度研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1924-1934.

LI Haiyang, YANG Min. “Explicit-implicit” patterns coupling coordination degree of cropland utilization in the farming system of northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1924-1934.

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维度	分项维度	具体方面	基础指标	计算方法及表征意义	属性
显性形态	数量变化	数量	人均耕地面积/km²·(10⁴人)^-1	耕地面积/乡村人口，表征耕地的数量变化	+
		数量	土地垦殖率/%	耕地面积/土地总面积，表征耕地的面积变动	+
		动态变化	份额变化/%	（末期耕地面积占比-基期耕地面积占比）×100，表征耕地利用的变化幅度	+
		动态变化	耕地利用度/%	（末期耕地面积占比-基期耕地面积占比）/（基期耕地面积占比）×1/12，表征耕地利用的变化动态度	+
	空间结构	结构	粮经比/%	粮食作物面积/经济作物面积，表征耕地的种植结构	+
		景观形态	耕地景观分离度/%	通过Fragstats软件计算得到，表征耕地被分割的情况，体现人为干扰	-
		景观形态	耕地景观聚集度/%	通过Fragstats软件计算得到，表征同类耕地斑块聚集程度	+
隐性形态	经营过程	规模化	设施农业占比/%	设施农业用地面积/耕地面积，表征耕地规模化生产水平	+
	经营过程	集约化	复种指数/%	农作物播种面积/耕地面积，表征耕地集约利用程度	+
	要素投入	机械投入	单位耕地面积农业机械总动力/10⁴ kW·km^-2	农业机械总动力/耕地面积，表征耕地机械化水平	+
	多重功能	生态功能	单位耕地面积承载人口数量/10⁴人·km^-2	常住人口/耕地面积，表征耕地的生态承载能力	-
		生产功能	单位耕地面积粮食产量/t·km^-2	粮食总产量/耕地面积，表征耕地粮食生产能力	+
		生产功能	单位耕地面积第一产业产值/10⁴元·km^-2	第一产业增加值/耕地面积，表征示耕地生产价值	+
		生活功能	人均粮食保证率/t·(10⁴人)^-1	粮食总产量/（常住人口×400），表征耕地粮食保障功能	+

变量	双固定SDM	双固定SAR
变量	西北农作制区总体	亚区Ⅰ	亚区Ⅱ	亚区Ⅲ
β	-0.75^***	-0.55^***	-0.70^***	-0.88^***
$θ$	0.55^***	-	-	-
$ρ$	0.01^***	-0.07	-0.38^**	-0.46^**
Log-Likelihood	2381.87	831.75	807.19	797.85
Hausman检验	140.53^***	96.90^***	194.81^***	279.34^***
地区固定效应	29.25^***	25.72^***	48.21^***	45.37^***
时间固定效应	517.47^***	94.90^***	157.44^***	226.66^***
$R 2$	0.35	0.22	0.36	0.42
样本量	107	34	35	38

地区	显性形态主要障碍因素（障碍度）			隐性形态主要障碍因素（障碍度）
地区	第一因子	第二因子	第三因子	第一因子	第二因子	第三因子
西北农作制区总体	耕地景观分离度（40.31%）	粮经比（18.04%）	土地垦殖率（16.43%）	单位耕地面积第一产业产值（56.18%）	单位耕地面积粮食产量（18.56%）	复种指数（17.27%）
亚区Ⅰ	耕地景观分离度（37.85%）	粮经比（19.01%）	土地垦殖率（16.61%）	单位耕地面积第一产业产值（56.94%）	复种指数（18.38%）	单位耕地面积粮食产量（16.60%）
亚区Ⅱ	耕地景观分离度（41.78%）	粮经比（17.52%）	土地垦殖率（16.30%）	单位耕地面积第一产业产值（55.41%）	单位耕地面积粮食产量（19.78%）	复种指数（17.38%）
亚区Ⅲ	耕地景观分离度（41.19%）	粮经比（17.64%）	土地垦殖率（16.39%）	单位耕地面积第一产业产值（56.21%）	单位耕地面积粮食产量（19.19%）	复种指数（16.20%）