1956—2021年疏勒河上游山区洪水变化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.558

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 1260-1268.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.558

1956—2021年疏勒河上游山区洪水变化特征研究

王学良^1,^2,³(),陈仁升¹(),刘俊峰¹,曹珊珊⁴

1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站，甘肃兰州 730000
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.甘肃省平凉水文站，甘肃平凉 744000
4.甘肃省水文站，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2022-10-23 修回日期:2023-02-03 出版日期:2023-08-25 发布日期:2023-09-21
通讯作者: 陈仁升（1974-），男，博士，研究员，主要从事寒区水文观测与模拟研究. E-mail: crs2008@lzb.ac.cn
作者简介:王学良（1982-），男，博士研究生，高级工程师，主要从事寒旱区水文与水资源研究. E-mail: wangxueliang@nieer.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFC1510500);国家自然科学基金项目(42171145);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA043)

Characteristics of flood changes in mountainous areas of upper Shule River from 1956 to 2021

WANG Xueliang^1,^2,³(),CHEN Rensheng¹(),LIU Junfeng¹,CAO Shanshan⁴

1. Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Pingliang Hydrological Station of Gansu Province, Pingliang 744000, Gansu, China
4. Hydrological Station of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received:2022-10-23 Revised:2023-02-03 Online:2023-08-25 Published:2023-09-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1956—2021年疏勒河上游昌马河出山口昌马堡水文站的实测洪水数据及流域内或周边鱼儿红雨量站和托勒气象站的气温和降水数据，采用Sen’s slope估计法、Mann-Kendall检验法，抽样分析了年最大洪水（Annual maximum peak discharge，AMPD）系列、超定量阈值洪水（Peaks-over-threshold，POT3M）系列和基于广义极值（Generalized extreme value，GEV）分布不同级别洪水系列的变化特征。结果表明：（1）1956—2021年疏勒河上游昌马河昌马堡水文站洪水幅度和频次都为显著性增加的趋势，其中AMPD和POT3M系列的幅度变化趋势通过了显著性水平为0.01的检验，POT3M系列的频次变化趋势通过了显著性水平为0.05的检验，基于GEV分布不同级别洪水以小洪水为主，且总洪水频次通过了显著性水平为0.01的检验。（2）1987年以后气温和降水呈现波动性增加趋势，强降雨和升温引起的冰川、高山积雪及冻土融水增加等原因是3种抽样洪水系列幅度和频次显著性增加的主要原因。

关键词: 疏勒河, 昌马堡水文站, 洪水, 变化特征

Abstract:

Based on measured flood data for 1956—2021 from the Changmabao hydrological station at the outlet of the Changma River in the upper reaches of the Shule River, northwest China, and on temperature and precipitation data from Yu’erhong rainfall station and Tuole meteorological station in the vicinity of the basin, the variation characteristics of annual maximum peak discharge (AMPD), peaks over threshold (POT3M), and floods based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at different levels were sampled and analyzed using Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed the following: (1) Both the magnitude and frequency of floods at the Changmabao hydrological station during the studied period significantly increased, with AMPD and POT3M magnitudes showing highly significant increases (P<0.01) and POT3M frequency showing significant increases (P<0.05). Based on the GEV distribution, floods were mainly small floods and the frequency of total floods was highly significant (P<0.01). (2) Temperature and precipitation showed a fluctuating increasing trend after 1987, and heavy precipitation and increased meltwater from glaciers, alpine snow, and permafrost due to warming were the main causes of the observed significant increases in flood magnitude and frequency in the three sampled series.

Key words: Shule River, Changmabao hydrological station, flood, variation characteristics

王学良, 陈仁升, 刘俊峰, 曹珊珊. 1956—2021年疏勒河上游山区洪水变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(8): 1260-1268.

WANG Xueliang, CHEN Rensheng, LIU Junfeng, CAO Shanshan. Characteristics of flood changes in mountainous areas of upper Shule River from 1956 to 2021[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1260-1268.

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河流	观测站点	观测项目	流域面积/10⁴ km²	海拔/m	经度	纬度	数据系列
疏勒河	昌马堡水文站	流量	1.0961	2080	96°51′	39°49′	1956—2021年
	鱼儿红雨量站	降水	-	3030	97°06′	39°26′	1956—2021年
	托勒气象站	气温、降水	-	3367	98°25′	38°48′	1956—2021年

河流	水文站	平均洪峰			最大洪峰				最小洪峰			极值比
河流	水文站	流量/m³·s^-1	变异系数		流量/m³·s^-1	出现年份	与多年均值比		流量/m³·s^-1	出现年份	与多年均值比	极值比
疏勒河	昌马堡	322	0.43		718	1999	2.23		89.2	1956	0.28	8.05

1956—2021年疏勒河上游山区洪水变化特征研究

Characteristics of flood changes in mountainous areas of upper Shule River from 1956 to 2021

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