伊犁河流域近30 a洪水灾害时空分布及孕灾环境特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.404

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1990—2022年伊犁河流域洪水灾情数据集，结合高程、归一化植被指数等孕灾环境因子，研究伊犁河流域洪水灾害时空分布及孕灾环境特征，并分析洪水灾害发生规律和孕灾环境之间的联系。结果表明：（1）研究区洪水灾害可分为3种：暴雨洪水、融雪洪水和混合洪水（暴雨加融雪造成洪水），其中，暴雨洪水灾害最多（占80.0%）、融雪洪水灾害最少（占3.4%）；洪水灾害呈流域北部多于南部、东段多于西段的空间分布，尼勒克县最多、霍尔果斯市最少。（2）近30 a来洪水灾害频次呈年际和年代际增多趋势，洪水灾害年均约11.6次·a^-1，2010年最多（43次），2000—2011年最多（149次）。洪水灾害在夏季最多，春季次之，秋季最少，6月最多（年均3.3次·a^-1），10月最少（年均0.06次·a^-1），其中暴雨洪水灾害夏季最多，年均9.3次·a^-1，6月最多（110次），10月最少（2次），混合洪水灾害春多夏少，3月最多（36次），7月最少（8次），年均1.9次·a^-1，融雪洪水灾害3月最多（12次），只发生于春季，年均0.4次·a^-1。（3）孕灾环境敏感性等级综合分布显示，灾害发生过程中，各孕灾因子共同起作用，影响洪水灾害的空间分布和强度。尼勒克县、特克斯县、新源县、昭苏县和霍尔果斯市境内的极高敏感区域分布较多。结合洪水灾害时空分布和孕灾环境等级综合分布可知，洪水灾害多发生在极高敏感区和高敏感区分布较多的流域东段和北部区域。

关键词: 伊犁河流域, 洪水灾害, 时空分布, 孕灾环境

Abstract:

Based on the flood disaster data set of the Ili River Basin from 1990 to 2022, this study combined with disaster-prone environment factors, such as elevation and normalized vegetation index, to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of flood disasters and the characteristics of disaster-prone environment in the Ili River Basin. This study analyzes the relationship between the occurrence rule of flood disasters and the disaster-prone environment. The results reveal the following: (1) Flood disasters in the study area can be categorized into three types: rainstorm, snowmelt, and mixed floods (caused by rainstorm and snowmelt floods), with rainstorm flood being the most prevalent (80.0%) and snowmelt flood the least (3.4%). The spatial distribution of flood disasters is greater in the north than in the south, greater in the east than in the west, with Nilke County experiencing the most and Khorgas City the least. (2) Over the past 30 years, the frequency of flood disasters has shown a substantial interannual and interdecadal increasing trend, with an average annual occurrence of about 11.6·a^-1. The highest occurrence was in 2010 (43), and the highest period was from 2000 to 2011 (149). Flood disasters were most frequent in summer, followed by spring, and least frequent in autumn. They were most frequent in June (annual mean 3.3 times·a^-1) and least frequent in October (annual mean 0.06 times·a^-1). Rainstorm flood disasters were most frequent in summer (annual mean 9.3 times·a^-1), most frequent in June (110 times), and least frequent in October (2 times). Mixed flood disasters were more frequent in spring and less frequent in summer, with the most in March (36 times) and at the least in July (8 times), with an average annual rate of 1.9 times·a^-1; snowmelt flood was most frequent in March (12 times), only occurring in spring, with an average annual rate of 0.4 times·a^-1. (3) The comprehensive distribution of disaster-prone environment sensitivity levels shows that all disaster-prone factors work together to affect the spatial distribution and intensity of flood disasters. More extremely sensitive areas exist in Nilka, Tekes, Xinyuan, Zhaosu Counties and Khorgas City. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution of flood disasters and the comprehensive distribution of the disaster-prone environment, flood disasters mostly occur in the eastern and northern parts of the basin, where the extremely and highly sensitive areas are distributed.

Key words: Ili River Basin, flood disaster, spatiotemporal distribution, disaster-prone environment

古丽扎尔·莫明, 杨莲梅, 刘艳, 李新国. 伊犁河流域近30 a洪水灾害时空分布及孕灾环境特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(8): 1314-1326.

Gulzar MOMIN, YANG Lianmei, LIU Yan, LI Xinguo. Spatial and temporal distribution of flood disasters and characteristics of disaster-prone environment in Ili River Basin in recent 30 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(8): 1314-1326.

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名称	分辨率/m	年份	数据来源
洪水灾情数据集	-	1990—2022	中国气象局“气象灾情管理系统”、新疆气象灾害大典
数字高程模型	30	2010	地理空间数据云
土地利用类型	30	2020	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
生长季（6—9月）NDVI平均值	250	2020	NASA官方网站modis13Q1数据

指标层	极低敏感	低敏感	中敏感	高敏感	极高敏感	权重
高程/m	<1500	1501~2000	2001~2500	2501~3000	3001~6231	0.28
坡度/(°)	<8	9~18	19~28	29~38	39~85	0.10
地表粗糙度/(°)	<1.04	1.05~1.21	1.22~1.48	1.49~1.93	>1.94	0.05
水域缓冲区/km	>15	9~15	6~9	3~6	<3	0.33
NDVI	>0.8	0.6~0.8	0.4~0.6	0.2~0.4	<0.2	0.11
土地利用类型	建设用地	林地	耕地、草地	未利用地	水域	0.13

敏感性分级	孕灾敏感指数分级	面积/km²	占比/%
极低敏感	1.25~2.29	10384.70	19.33
低敏感	2.30~2.75	13550.31	25.22
中敏感	2.76~3.33	16513.23	30.73
高敏感	3.34~4.11	6041.02	11.24
极高敏感	4.12~4.93	7241.89	13.48