近60 a黄河上游流域不同强度降水及大气湿润指数变化的新特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.638

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

深入研究黄河上游流域降水及大气湿润度旨在为其生态环境保护提供科学依据。选用1961—2020年黄河上游流域36个测站降水、气压、气温、风速、相对湿度等资料，采用最小二乘法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和相关分析等方法，分析了黄河上游流域近60 a不同强度降水量、雨日及大气湿润指数的变化特征。结果表明：（1）黄河上游流域年降水量总体呈现西南多、东北少的特征，近60 a以4.9 mm·(10a)^-1的速度增加，尤以夏季增加最显著。（2）除小雨雨日减少外，小雨雨量、中雨雨日、雨量及大-暴雨雨日、雨量均呈增加趋势，其中产流区夏季中雨雨量增加最为显著。（3）黄河上游流域各区域湿润指数均呈现一致的下降趋势，其中源头区下降最多，其突变发生在1989年。（4）随着气候变暖，黄河上游流域潜在蒸散量增加的速率比降水增加的速率大，进而造成空气中水分散失增加，大气湿润度下降，对植被生长的潜在风险增加。

关键词: 降水量, 雨日, 湿润指数, 变化特征, 黄河上游流域

Abstract:

An in-depth study of precipitation and atmospheric humidity in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin aims to provide a scientific basis for its ecological environment protection. Data on precipitation, air pressure, air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity from 36 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020 were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation, rain days, and atmospheric humidity index of different intensities over the past 60 years. The analysis employed the least square method, Mann-Kendall mutation test, and correlation analysis. The results reveal the following: (1) Annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin is higher in the southwest and lower in the northeast, increasing at a rate of 4.9 mm·(10a)^-1 over the past 60 years, especially in summer. (2) Except for a decrease in light rain days, light rainfall, moderate rain days, moderate rainfall, and heavy rain days, heavy rainfall all showed an increasing trend, with moderate rainfall increasing most significantly in the flow-producing region during summer. (3) The humidity index of the upper reaches of the Yellow River consistently showed a downward trend, with the largest decline in the headwater region. This mutation occurred in 1989. (4) With the warming climate, the potential evapotranspiration in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin has increased at a faster rate than precipitation, resulting in increased water loss in the air, decreased atmospheric humidity, and heightened potential risks to vegetation growth.

Key words: precipitation, rain days, humidity index, change characteristics, upper Yellow River Basin

程瑛, 宋兴宇, 付正旭, 黎倩, 王一丞, 韩兰英. 近60 a黄河上游流域不同强度降水及大气湿润指数变化的新特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(8): 1327-1337.

CHENG Ying, SONG Xingyu, FU Zhengxu, LI Qian, WANG Yicheng, HAN Lanying. New characteristics of various intensity precipitation and atmospheric humidity index in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(8): 1327-1337.

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年代	降水量/mm
年代	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年
20世纪60年代	64.7	177.0	77.8	4.1	326.6
20世纪70年代	52.3	180.9	73.7	5.3	312.2
20世纪80年代	65.2	176.9	66.6	6.6	315.3
20世纪90年代	57.2	183.8	56.7	6.1	303.8
21世纪00年代	62.7	173.2	76.9	6.6	319.4
21世纪10年代	67.2	201.1	77.7	7.7	353.7
1961—2020年	61.5	182.1	71.6	6.1	321.3
气候倾向率/mm·(10a)^-1	1.1^**	3.5^***	0.2	0.6	5.0^***

年代	源头区降水量/mm				产流区降水量/mm				出口区降水量/mm
年代	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
20世纪60年代	116.9	327.7	156.3	10.2	73.3	190.6	89.0	3.5	40.9	121.4	44.3	3.1
20世纪70年代	116.6	323.4	150.6	10.2	60.2	197.4	75.9	5.7	26.1	124.3	50.7	3.5
20世纪80年代	121.6	337.1	144.9	13.2	75.6	188.6	72.0	6.8	38.4	120.8	39.8	4.7
20世纪90年代	119.6	298.5	115.4	15.1	60.1	204.3	61.4	6.2	37.3	130.0	35.8	3.6
21世纪00年代	117.1	325.9	143.5	12.5	70.5	182.7	83.1	6.5	39.3	121.6	52.0	5.1
21世纪10年代	151.1	342.1	150.2	18.4	74.6	223.1	82.5	8.0	36.5	138.7	53.0	4.4
1961—2020年	123.8	325.8	143.5	13.3	69.0	197.7	77.3	6.1	36.4	126.1	45.9	4.1
气候倾向率/mm·(10a)^-1	4.9	1.9	-2.6	1.3	0.6	4.4	-0.7	0.7	0.5	2.8	1.1	0.3

区域	降水量比重			降水雨日比重
区域	小雨雨量	中雨雨量	大-暴雨雨量	小雨雨日	中雨雨日	大-暴雨雨日
黄河上游流域	54.0	33.5	12.4	89.8	8.6	1.5
源头区	53.3	37.4	9.0	88.1	10.5	1.4
产流区	53.7	34.3	11.9	89.5	9.0	1.4
出口区	54.5	31.5	13.8	90.7	7.8	1.5

统计参数	小雨				中雨
统计参数	春季	夏季	秋季	年	春季	夏季	秋季	年
负趋势的站数百分比/％	50.0（55.6）	55.6（69.4）	38.9（25.0）	38.9（63.9）	33.3（8.3）	25.0（16.7）	47.2（38.9）	22.2（22.2）
正趋势的站数百分比/％	50.0（44.4）	44.4（30.6）	61.1（75.0）	61.1（36.1）	66.7（91.7）	75.0（93.3）	52.8（61.1）	77.5（77.5）
通过0.05显著性水平检验负趋势的站数百分比/％	2.8（11.1）	0.0（19.4）	0.0（0.0）	0.0（11.1）	0.0（0.0）	0.0（0.0）	2.8（5.6）	0.0（0.0）
通过0.05显著性水平检验正趋势的站数百分比/％	13.9（2.8）	5.6（5.6）	2.8（0）	25.0（8.3）	8.3（8.3）	13.9（16.7）	11.1（11.1）	25.0（22.2）
雨量气候倾向率/mm·(10a)^-1	0.6	0.1	0.3	1.3	0.3	2.1	-0.1	2.6
雨日气候倾向率/d·(10a)^-1	0.1	-0.2	0.1	-0.01	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2

指标	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	12月
湿润指数	0.14	0.15	0.21	0.30	0.55	0.71	0.93	1.06	1.14	0.63	0.19	0.08
降水量/mm	1.9	2.9	7.8	16.9	36.8	47.7	65.8	68.6	47.5	19.9	4.2	1.2