疏勒河流域中游地区玉米性状及单产的影响因子研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.601

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

疏勒河流域是中国西北重要的粮食产区，探明气候变化和人类活动对该地区粮食作物影响规律，可为区域粮食安全提供重要科学支撑。以地处疏勒河流域中游地区的玉门市为典型研究区，采用1990—2020年气象要素、田间管理、土壤属性和玉米单产等数据，分析玉米性状及单产对自然因素（最高温、最低温、太阳辐射、风速、降水）和人为因素（政策、灌溉量、施肥量）的敏感性，在此基础上，以2017年为典型年，运用DSSAT-CERES-Maize模型定量分析主要影响因子对玉米性状和气候单产的影响程度，探明研究区玉米生长发育的适宜条件。结果表明：（1）在疏勒河流域中游地区，气候暖湿化特征显著；化肥施用量呈现出增加-减少的变化趋势，有效灌溉面积为持续增加趋势。（2）玉米实际单产呈小幅增加趋势，其中趋势单产由于受到推广优质品种和农田水利建设等政策的影响，呈增加-减少-稳定的变化趋势，而玉米气候单产呈减少趋势，其对最高温和降水表现出强正向敏感度，对最低温表现出强负向敏感度；玉米性状对化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积和穗期、花粒期的最低温表现为强正向敏感度，对穗期、花粒期最高温表现为强负向敏感度。（3）玉米生长发育的适宜条件为最高温（14.80~38.56 ℃）、最低温（-0.38~22.16 ℃）、太阳辐射（3.93~25.15 MJ·m^-2）、风速（0~3.81 m·s^-1）以及在实际降水基础上的灌溉量（15 mm）和施肥量（10 kg·hm^-2），在此范围内，最高温、最低温、风速和水肥因子与性状、单产存在“倒U型”关系，而太阳辐射与性状、单产存在“U型”关系。

关键词: 玉米, 影响因子, 单产, 性状, 疏勒河流域

Abstract:

The Shule River Basin is an important grain-producing area in northwest China. Exploring the influence of climate change and human activities on grain production in this region can provide an important scientific basis for promoting regional food security. In this paper, Yumen City, located in the middle reaches of the Shule River Basin, was used as a representative research area. The sensitivity of maize traits and maize yield per unit area to natural factors (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and precipitation) and human factors (policy, irrigation amount, and fertilizer amount) was analyzed using meteorological, field management, soil property, and yield data from 1990 to 2020, based on which 2017 was selected as a typical year. The DSSAT-CERES-Maize model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of natural and human factors on maize traits and climatic yield per unit area, and the most suitable conditions for maize growth and development in the study area were thus identified. The results showed that: (1) Middle reaches of the Shule River Basin have a warm and humid climate. Fertilizer application showed an increasing-decreasing trend and effective irrigated area showed a continuously increasing trend. (2) Actual yield per unit area showed a slightly increasing trend, and yield per unit area showed an increasing-decreasing-stable trend due to the influence of policies promoting high-quality maize varieties and farmland water conservation measures. Climatic yield per unit area showed a decreasing trend with strong positive sensitivity to the highest moderate precipitation and a strong negative sensitivity to the lowest low temperature. Maize traits showed strong positive sensitivity to fertilizer application quota, effective irrigated area, and lowest temperatures at ear and flowering stages, and strong negative sensitivity to highest temperatures at ear and flowering stages. (3) The optimum conditions for maize growth and development in the study area were found to be as follows: a highest temperature range of 14.80-38.56 ℃, a lowest temperature range of -0.38-22.16 ℃, a solar radiation range of 3.93-25.15 MJ·m^-2), a wind speed range of 0-3.81 m·s^-1, an irrigation amount of 15 mm, and a fertilizer application rate of 10 kg·hm^-2. Within these ranges, the relationship between solar radiation and maize traits and yield was U-shaped, while the relationships between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, and water and fertilizer factors and maize traits and yield were inverted U-shaped.

Key words: maize, influencing factor, yield per unit area, traits, Shule River Basin

刘焕才,史书琦,李曼,张艳芳,韩丽. 疏勒河流域中游地区玉米性状及单产的影响因子研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(9): 1453-1466.

LIU Huancai,SHI Shuqi,LI Man,ZHANG Yanfang,HAN Li. Influencing factors of maize traits and yield per unit area in the middle reaches of Shule River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1453-1466.

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要素	技术信息
生长阶段	苗期（4月15日—5月15日）、穗期（5月16日—7月20日）、花粒期（7月21日—9月30日）
复合肥施用（氮:磷:钾= 1.0:0.7:0.5）	按基肥、种肥、苗肥、秆肥、穗肥和粒肥施入
灌溉	分苗水、拔节抽雄水和灌浆前、中期水灌入

影响因子	相关性状
影响因子	各生长阶段性状	收获时性状
温度（最高温、最低温）	物积速率、时长	根茎叶果重占比、籽粒氮
太阳辐射	物积速率、时长	粒数/叶面积、粒重/叶面积、籽粒氮
风速	物积速率、时长	全生育期总蒸腾量、籽粒氮
水肥	物积速率、时长	粒数、粒重、籽粒氮

物候期	最高温	最低温	太阳辐射	降水	风速	化肥施用量	有效灌溉面积
根重占比	F	E	-G	-E	-H	A	-B
茎重占比	-G	F	H	-G	I	F	C
叶重占比	-F	G	H	-H	I	H	A
果重占比	-F	G	G	-H	I	I	A
粒数/叶面积	-B	E	F	-D	D	F	H
粒重/叶面积	-A	D	F	-C	E	F	-H
全生育期蒸腾量	-D	E	H	I	H	B	-F
粒数	A	-G	I	B	G	C	F
粒重	-F	D	-G	-A	H	-G	-D
籽粒氮	B	-H	-F	-C	-H	-E	-F
气候单产	C	-A	H	D	E	-F	E

影响因子	最高温			最低温			太阳辐射			降水			风速			化肥施用量			有效灌溉面积
生长阶段	苗期	穗期	花粒期	苗期	穗期	花粒期	苗期	穗期	花粒期	苗期	穗期	花粒期	苗期	穗期	花粒期	苗期	穗期	花粒期	苗期	穗期	花粒期
根重占比	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	I	I	-H	-	-	-	A	A	A	-F	-D	-C
茎重占比	-	-	-	I	E	G	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	G	C	F	A	F	B
叶重占比	I	I	I	I	E	G	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	A	D	A
果重占比	-H	-H	-H	I	E	G	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	A	C	A
粒数/叶面积	I	-E	-G	-	-	-	-	-	-	D	D	I	-G	I	I	-	-	-	-	-	-
粒重/叶面积	H	-E	-G	-E	A	E	-	-	-	E	E	I	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
全生育期蒸腾量	I	-E	-H	-H	H	D	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	A	C	C	-	-	-
粒数	H	B	E	-	-	-	-	-	-	F	F	H	-	-	-	A	A	A	-	-	-
粒重	-	-	-	-E	B	D	-	-	-	H	H	-G	-	-	-	-	-	-	-G	-E	G
籽粒氮	E	G	D	-	-	-	-	-	-	-F	-E	-H	-	-	-	-F	-E	-F	-	-	-
气候单产	G	-G	F	-E	-E	-D	-	-	-	F	-H	G	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

影响因子	依据	影响因子参数
温度	1990—2020年玉米物候期温度年均增长0.165 ℃	-2.08 ℃<温度变化<1.92 ℃，逐步加减0.16 ℃，共计26种
太阳辐射	1990—2020年玉米物候期太阳辐射变化幅度为1 MJ·m^-2	-0.5 MJ·m^-2<太阳辐射变化<0.5 MJ·m^-2，逐步加减0.0 MJ·m^-2，共计21种
风速	1990—2020年玉米物候期风速年均增长0.03 m·s^-1	-0.66 m·s^-1<风速变化<0.66 m·s^-1，逐步加减0.03 m·s^-1，共计45种
水肥	2017年物候期降水量约为66.5 mm，玉米全生育期需水量约为410~699 mm	全生育期灌水约25次，每次灌溉量分别为W₀（0 mm）、W₁（15 mm）、W₂（30 mm）；全生育期施入复合肥6次，基肥约占总施肥量的66.67%，其余5次每次施肥量分别为F₀（0 kg·hm^-2）、F₁（10 kg·hm^-2）、F₂（20 kg·hm^-2）；灌溉施肥组合处理方式共计9种。