塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.353

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (1): 15-27.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.353

塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析

邬晓丹^1,²(),罗敏^1,²(),孟凡浩^1,²,萨楚拉^1,²,董金义^1,²,刘铁³

1.内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010022
2.内蒙古自治区遥感与地理信息系统重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010022
3.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011

收稿日期:2023-07-11 修回日期:2023-09-12 出版日期:2024-01-25 发布日期:2024-01-26
通讯作者: 罗敏（1990-），女，副教授，主要从事流域水文过程模拟、气候变化对水资源影响、遥感应用等研究. E-mail: luomin@imnu.edu.cn
作者简介:邬晓丹（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事极端气候对水资源的影响研究. E-mail: wxd17748555132@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42101030);国家自然科学基金(42361024);国家自然科学基金(42261079);内蒙古高校青年科技英才(NJYT22027);内蒙古高校青年科技英才(NJYT23019);第三次新疆综合科学考察(2021xjkk1400);内蒙古师范大学研究生科研创新基金(CXJJS22132);内蒙古师范大学基本科研业务费专项资金(2022JBXC017)

Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River

WU Xiaodan^1,²(),LUO Min^1,²(),MENG Fanhao^1,²,SA Chula^1,²,DONG Jinyi^1,²,LIU Tie³

1. College of Geographical Science, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, Inner Mongolia, China
2. Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing & Geography Information System, Hohhot 010022, Inner Mongolia, China
3. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received:2023-07-11 Revised:2023-09-12 Online:2024-01-25 Published:2024-01-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1981—2020年塔里木河流域“四源”5个水文站的日径流数据及格网温度、降水和雪深等数据，采用最大值及POT采样法，分析洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征，同时采用相关性分析揭示不同洪水指标与影响因素之间的关系并识别关键影响因子。结果表明：（1） 1981—2020年塔里木河“四源”各站点洪峰流量大小依次为：卡群>协和拉>同古孜洛克>沙里桂兰克>大山口，年及季节尺度洪峰流量普遍呈增加趋势，冬季洪峰发生时间均呈提前状态，其中沙里桂兰克年均提前最多为2.61 d，卡群站提前仅0.67 d。（2）研究时段内塔里木河流域共有2个洪水高发期，为1994—2002年和2006—2011年，流域内大量级洪水集中发生在1990年之后。（3）洪水发生前不同时间内最小温度、降水和雪深以增加趋势为主；而最大温度以减少趋势为主。春季洪水指标与最大3 d降水的相关性最高，而秋季洪水指标与最大7 d降水的相关性最高。相比于单日降水，多日降水与洪水指标的相关性更高。在雪深相关因子中，最大15 d雪深与各站点的春季洪水指标相关性最高。研究结果对区域水资源管理以及洪水灾害预测提供理论依据。

关键词: 洪水, 重现期, POT采样, 塔里木河“四源”

Abstract:

Based on temperature, precipitation, and snow depth data from five hydrological stations in four sources of the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, China, from 1981 to 2020, flood magnitude, frequency, and peak time were analyzed using maximum and peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling methods. Moreover, correlation analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between different flood indicators and influencing factors and identify key influencing factors. The results show the following: (1) From 1981 to 2020, the peak discharge of each hydrological station in “four sources” of the Tarim River Basin is as follows: Kaqung>Xehera>Tongguzlok>Sharikilank>Daschankou. The annual and seasonal flood peak discharge generally exhibited an increasing trend, and the occurrence time of the flood peak in winter exhibited an earlier state, among which the average annual advance of Sharikilank was 2.61 days, whereas that of the Kaqung station was only 0.67 days. (2) There were two periods of high flooding in the Tarim River Basin, namely, 1994—2002 and 2006—2011, with several flood occurrences in the Tarim River Basin after 1990. (3) The minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow depth at different times before the floods mainly exhibited an increasing trend, while the maximum temperature mainly exhibited a decrease. The highest correlation was found between spring flood indicators and maximum 3-day precipitation, whereas the highest correlation was found between autumn flood indicators and maximum 7-day precipitation. The correlation between multi-day precipitation and flood indicators was higher than that between single-day precipitation and flood indicators. Among the snow depth-related factors, the maximum 15-day snow depth had the highest correlation with spring flood indicators at each station. These findings provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and flood disaster prediction.

Key words: flood, recurrence period, POT sampling, four sources streams of Tarim River

邬晓丹, 罗敏, 孟凡浩, 萨楚拉, 董金义, 刘铁. 塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(1): 15-27.

WU Xiaodan, LUO Min, MENG Fanhao, SA Chula, DONG Jinyi, LIU Tie. Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 15-27.

图/表 9

图 1

图2

表1

采用的9种洪水指标"

洪水指标定义	简称	单位
年最大1 d流量	AMF	m³ $∙$ s^-1
年最大1 d流量发生日期	AMFD	d
春季（3—5月）最大1 d流量	AMFSp	m³ $∙$ s^-1
夏季（6—8月）最大1 d流量	AMFSu	m³ $∙$ s^-1
秋季（9—11月）最大1 d流量	AMFAu	m³ $∙$ s^-1
冬季（12月—次年2月）最大1 d流量	AMFWi	m³ $∙$ s^-1
POT超过阈值洪峰流量	POT3M	m³ $∙$ s^-1
每年POT样本数量	POT3F	次
每年POT洪水发生平均日期	MDF	d

表1

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

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站点名称	AMFSp /m³·s^-1	AMFSu /m³·s^-1	AMFAu /m³·s^-1	AMFWi /m³·s^-1	AMF /m³·s^-1	AMFD /d	POT3M /m³·s^-1	POT3F /次	MDF /d
沙里桂兰克	375.19	537.52	209.76	31.22	568.65	180.48	608.38	4.89	180.24
协和拉	240.17	1326.45	399.03	77.87	1326.45	214.00	1157.89	3.33	212.91
大山口	236.90	390.65	195.75	89.79	399.35	214.18	459.23	7.50	195.70
同古孜洛克	71.08	637.13	192.77	14.02	637.13	188.25	677.50	4.60	211.31
卡群	159.88	1423.10	580.18	70.46	1423.10	217.08	1505.56	5.72	215.20

塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析

Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River

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