基于多维评价方法的沿黄地区经济韧性时空分异规律

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.512

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对沿黄地区经济韧性进行科学测度是提升区域经济韧性、实现高质量发展的重要步骤。构建指标体系从抵抗力、恢复力、转型力3个维度测度了2003—2022年沿黄地区经济韧性水平，引入泰尔指数和莫兰指数对沿黄地区经济韧性差异和空间相关性进行分析。结果表明：（1）在研究期内，沿黄地区经济运行总体稳定，显示出较强的经济韧性，但是与全国经济韧性水平相比仍有较大差距。子系统中恢复力维度得分最高，转型力最低。（2）较高韧性区主要分布在山东半岛、中西部省会城市与矿产资源富集城市，较低韧性地区主要为青海、宁夏、甘肃、陕西、河南大部分地区、内蒙古西部、山东西部，地级尺度的经济韧性具有明显的中心外围结构。（3）研究期内沿黄地区经济韧性水平的总体差异在多数年份呈缩小趋势，区域内差异贡献率均大于75%，区域内协同发展问题应引起重视。（4）研究期内沿黄地区经济韧性的莫兰指数均为正值，总体上呈正相关，局部空间聚类分布以低-低集聚区和高-高集聚区为主，前者主要集中在青海、甘肃、宁夏，后者主要分布于山东。

关键词: 经济韧性, 时空分异, 指标体系, 沿黄地区

Abstract:

Scientifically measuring economic resilience in the Yellow River region is essential for enhancing regional development quality and sustainability. This study constructed a comprehensive indicator system to evaluate economic resilience across the Yellow River region from 2003 to 2022, examining three critical dimensions: Resistance, resilience, and transformation. We employed the Theil index to quantify regional disparities and the Moran’s index to analyze spatial correlation patterns. Our analysis revealed four key findings: (1) Regional performance: The Yellow River region demonstrated stable economic operation with strong overall resilience during the study period, though a significant gap persists compared to national economic resilience levels. Among the dimensional subsystems, resilience scored highest while transformation scored lowest. (2) Spatial distribution: Economic resilience exhibits a clear center-periphery structure at the prefecture level. Higher resilience areas are concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula, provincial capitals in central and western China, and mineral-rich cities. Lower resilience characterizes Qinghai, Ningxia, most of Gansu, Shaanxi, Henan, western Inner Mongolia, and western Shandong. (3) Temporal trends: The overall difference in economic resilience across the Yellow River region showed a decreasing trend over most of the study year. Regional differences contributed more than 75% to overall inequality, highlighting the need for coordinated intra-regional strategies. (4) Spatial correlation: Positive Moran’s index values throughout the study period indicate significant autocorrelation in economic resilience. Local spatial clustering revealed predominant “low-low” agglomeration (concentrated in Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia) and “high-high” agglomeration (primarily in Shandong).

Key words: economic resilience, spatiotemporal differentiation, indicator system method, the Yellow River region

薛晨浩, 白永平, 王生鹏. 基于多维评价方法的沿黄地区经济韧性时空分异规律[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(6): 1103-1114.

XUE Chenhao, BAI Yongping, WANG Shengpeng. Spatio-temporal differentiation of economic resilience in the Yellow River region based on multidimensional evaluation methods[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1103-1114.

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目标层	系统层	准则层	指标层	单位	指标方向
沿黄地区经济韧性	抵抗力	经济发展水平	人均GDP	元	+
			人均固定资产投资	元	+
			财政自给率	%	+
		产业链结构与水平	制造业总产值	10⁴元	+
			第一产业增加值占GDP的比重	%	-
			劳动密集型制造业产业链占比	%	-
	恢复力	产业调整能力	地区工业规模	10⁴元	+
			单位GDP能耗	10⁴ tce	-
			产业结构高级化指数	—	+
			产业结构多样化指数	—	+
		经济普惠水平	人均可支配收入	元	+
		外贸结构	外贸依存度	%	+
		就业水平	就业人员占总人口比重	%	+
	转型力	创新支撑能力	R&D支出占GDP的比重	%	+
			规上工业企业有效专利数	件	+
			高技术产业企业数	个	+
		人力资本支持	万人在校大学生数	人	+
		绿色转型能力	区域旅游收入	10⁸元	+

年份	总体差异	区域间差异	区域间差异贡献率/%	区域内差异				区域内差异贡献率/%
年份	总体差异	区域间差异	区域间差异贡献率/%	总体	上游	中游	下游	总体	上游	中游	下游
2003	0.22	0.03	15.82	0.18	0.09	0.03	0.07	84.18	39.93	11.76	32.49
2004	0.22	0.04	19.24	0.18	0.08	0.03	0.07	80.76	35.05	12.03	33.68
2005	0.22	0.05	20.92	0.18	0.07	0.03	0.08	79.08	32.54	11.89	34.65
2006	0.21	0.05	22.48	0.16	0.07	0.03	0.07	77.52	31.16	13.36	33.00
2007	0.20	0.05	22.87	0.16	0.06	0.03	0.07	77.13	29.49	14.25	33.38
2008	0.20	0.04	22.04	0.15	0.06	0.03	0.06	77.96	30.30	15.21	32.45
2009	0.16	0.02	12.83	0.14	0.07	0.03	0.04	87.17	42.07	18.19	26.91
2010	0.16	0.02	11.72	0.14	0.07	0.03	0.05	88.28	41.00	16.56	30.72
2011	0.15	0.02	11.47	0.14	0.07	0.03	0.04	88.53	43.35	16.47	28.72
2012	0.15	0.02	13.45	0.13	0.06	0.03	0.04	86.55	41.52	16.90	28.13
2013	0.15	0.02	16.58	0.12	0.06	0.02	0.04	83.42	39.64	15.21	28.57
2014	0.14	0.03	20.20	0.11	0.05	0.02	0.04	79.80	35.76	15.06	28.99
2015	0.13	0.03	21.84	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.04	78.16	35.30	13.43	29.43
2016	0.13	0.03	21.97	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.04	78.03	35.69	13.55	28.79
2017	0.14	0.03	24.34	0.11	0.05	0.02	0.04	75.66	33.98	14.25	27.43
2018	0.13	0.03	22.69	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.04	77.31	34.99	13.87	28.45
2019	0.12	0.03	21.97	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.03	78.03	36.21	15.01	26.82
2020	0.11	0.03	22.95	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.03	77.05	34.24	14.68	28.13
2021	0.12	0.03	21.46	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.03	78.54	36.11	15.77	26.66
2022	0.13	0.03	21.61	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.03	78.39	37.92	17.06	23.41

年份	Moran’s I	年份	Moran’s I
2003	0.19	2013	0.20
2004	0.22	2014	0.22
2005	0.24	2015	0.22
2006	0.25	2016	0.22
2007	0.27	2017	0.23
2008	0.29	2018	0.21
2009	0.16	2019	0.14
2010	0.18	2020	0.17
2011	0.17	2021	0.18
2012	0.18	2022	0.20