与中国涉贸的“一带一路”主要国家原油出口力评估及障碍因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.642

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以“一带一路”倡议下与中国涉贸的20个主要原油出口国为研究对象，基于2010、2015、2020年截面数据，从原油供应能力、国内政治经济环境、国际关系、与中国的关系和运输可达性5个维度构建原油出口力评价指标体系，利用熵权TOPSIS模型评估样本国家原油出口力，并运用障碍度模型进行主要障碍因素分析。结果表明：（1） 2010—2020年20个样本国家的原油出口力总体呈波动下降趋势。（2）样本国原油出口力时空格局演变整体相对稳定，但仍存在差异。从地区层面看，独联体地区原油出口力整体水平较高，非洲地区较低，美洲、中东和东南亚地区处于中间水平。从国家层面看，原油出口力排序变幅较小，马来西亚、文莱等10个国家排名未变化，印尼、伊拉克等4国排名上升，伊朗、阿联酋等6国排名下降。（3）不同国家在各维度中各具优劣势。委内瑞拉、沙特原油供应能力得分较高，俄罗斯、阿联酋国内政治经济环境得分较高，沙特、阿联酋国际关系得分较高，俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦与中国的关系及运输可达性得分较高。（4）影响原油出口力水平的主要障碍因素是地理区位关系、运输方式多样化、贸易开放程度等，各国原油出口力障碍因素存在一定差异，应针对各自的主要障碍因素，因地制宜采取措施降低障碍影响，提升原油出口力。

关键词: 原油出口力评估, 指标体系构建, 熵权TOPSIS模型, 障碍因素

Abstract:

This study develops a comprehensive evaluation system of crude oil export capacity based on five dimensions, namely, crude oil supply capacity, domestic political and economic environment, international relations, relations with China, and transport accessibility, based on the cross-sectional data from 2010, 2015, and 2020. Here, 20 major crude oil-exporting countries involved in trade with China under the “Belt and Road Initiative” are taken as the research objects. The entropy-weight TOPSIS model is used to evaluate the crude oil export power of the sample countries, and the obstacle degree model is used to analyze the main obstacles to crude oil export power. The following results were observed: (1) The crude oil export capacity of the 20 sample countries from 2010 to 2020 shows a general trend of fluctuation and decline. (2) The evolution of temporal and spatial patterns of crude oil export power of the sample countries is relatively stable on the whole despite observed differences. At the regional level, the overall level of crude oil export power in the Commonwealth of Independent States region is high, that in the African region is low, and that in the Americas, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia is in the middle. At the country level, there has been less change in the ranking of crude oil export strength, with ten countries, including Malaysia and Brunei, remaining unchanged, four countries, including Indonesia and Iraq, rising, and six countries, including Iran and the United Arab Emirates, descending. (3) Different countries have their own strengths and weaknesses in each dimension. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia have higher scores for crude oil supply capacity, Russia and the United Arab Emirates have higher scores for domestic political and economic environment, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have higher scores for international relations, and Russia and Kazakhstan have higher scores for relations with China and transport accessibility. (4) Geographical location, transportation mode diversification, and trade openness, among others, are the main factors that affect the level of crude oil export power. Some differences in the obstacles to crude oil export power are observed among countries. Thus, measures should be taken according to the main obstacle factors of each country to reduce the influence of obstacles and improve crude oil export power.

Key words: crude oil export capacity assessment, index system construction, entropy-weight TOPSIS model, obstacle factors

李逸, 赵媛, 鄢继尧, 王珂. 与中国涉贸的“一带一路”主要国家原油出口力评估及障碍因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(10): 1732-1743.

LI Yi, ZHAO Yuan, YAN Jiyao, WANG Ke. Assessment of crude oil export power and analysis of obstacles of major countries along the Belt and Road involved in trade with China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(10): 1732-1743.

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准则层	维度层	权重	指标层	权重	属性
原油出口能力	原油供应能力（A1）	0.1861	原油探明储量（B1）	0.0845	＋
			原油产消差（B2）	0.0135	＋
			原油供给潜力（B3）	0.0881	＋
	国内政治经济环境（A2）	0.2454	腐败控制（B4）	0.0286	＋
			政府效能（B5）	0.0195	＋
			政治稳定（B6）	0.0294	＋
			经济规模（B7）	0.0641	＋
			经济增速（B8）	0.0013	＋
			贸易开放程度（B9）	0.1024	＋
原油出口实现力	国际关系（A3）	0.0890	石油输出国组织国（B10）	0.0743	＋
	国际关系（A3）	0.0890	原油贸易伙伴国家数目（B11）	0.0147	＋
	与中国的关系（A4）	0.2979	对华原油出口量占比（B12）	0.0638	＋
			对华原油出口量排名（B13）	0.0031	-
			地理区位关系（B14）	0.1873	＋
			地缘政治关系（B15）	0.0437	＋
	运输可达性（A5）	0.1816	运输距离（B16）	0.0249	-
			运输方式多样化（B17）	0.1289	＋
			物流服务能力与质量（B18）	0.0151	＋
			贸易与运输相关基础设施质量（B19）	0.0127	＋

国家	2010年		2015年		2020年
国家	指数	排名	指数	排名	指数	排名
样本国家均值	0.3150	-	0.3227	-	0.3037	-
马来西亚	0.2387	15	0.2457	14	0.2313	15
印度尼西亚	0.2504	12	0.2586	12	0.2488	10
文莱	0.2300	17	0.2356	17	0.2253	17
越南	0.4825	3	0.5019	3	0.4754	3
伊朗	0.3078	7	0.3152	8	0.2695	8
伊拉克	0.2836	8	0.3164	7	0.3148	6
沙特阿拉伯	0.4128	4	0.3861	6	0.3949	4
阿曼	0.2387	16	0.2997	9	0.2456	11
阿拉伯联合酋长国	0.3471	6	0.3862	5	0.2947	7
卡塔尔	0.2517	11	0.2692	11	0.2347	12
科威特	0.2573	10	0.2694	10	0.2603	9
阿塞拜疆	0.2250	19	0.2253	19	0.2135	19
俄罗斯联邦	0.6564	1	0.6288	1	0.6648	1
哈萨克斯坦	0.5299	2	0.5222	2	0.4969	2
埃及	0.2216	20	0.2237	20	0.2058	20
阿尔及利亚	0.2396	14	0.2377	16	0.2255	16
安哥拉	0.2816	9	0.2546	13	0.2340	13
利比亚	0.2453	13	0.2449	15	0.2335	14
委内瑞拉	0.3737	5	0.4020	4	0.3822	5
厄瓜多尔	0.2270	18	0.2296	18	0.2234	18

国家	指标因子障碍度
国家	原油出口能力	原油出口实现力
马来西亚	B3、B1、B2	B14、B10、B17
印度尼西亚	B3、B1、B9	B14、B10、B17
文莱	B1、B7、B3	B14、B10、B17
越南	B3、B1、B2	B10、B17、B12
伊朗	B9、B6、B5	B14、B11、B12
伊拉克	B8、B6、B5	B14、B18、B19
沙特阿拉伯	B9、B6、B8	B14、B16、B15
阿曼	B1、B7、B3	B14、B10、B11
阿拉伯联合酋长国	B9、B7、B2	B14、B15、B16
卡塔尔	B3、B1、B7	B14、B10、B12
科威特	B7、B9、B5	B14、B10、B11
阿塞拜疆	B1、B3、B7	B14、B10、B17
俄罗斯联邦	B7、B4、B6	B10、B19、B18
哈萨克斯坦	B9、B1、B3	B10、B12、B13
埃及	B3、B1、B6	B14、B10、B17
阿尔及利亚	B1、B3、B9	B14、B17、B12
安哥拉	B1、B3、B7	B14、B17、B16
利比亚	B4、B5、B2	B14、B17、B15
委内瑞拉	B5、B4、B6	B14、B17、B12
厄瓜多尔	B1、B3、B9	B14、B17、B16