新疆城镇化绿色发展时空分异及驱动因子探究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.160

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为西部大开发重点和“一带一路”核心区,新疆城镇化具有鲜明的地域特色、地缘属性,科学诊断和识别城镇化绿色发展驱动因子,可为统筹边疆发展和安全格局提供实证依据。根据绿色发展和空间结构理论,用熵值法、地统计分析和探索性空间分析方法,基于ArcGIS空间分析平台,研究了2008—2018年新疆14个地州（市）城镇化绿色发展的时空分异格局。结果表明：（1）新疆城镇化绿色发展水平低、增长慢,空间依赖性和异质性较弱,以南、北疆差异为主体的核心-边缘分异显著,人口、经济、社会、生态城镇化发展不协调,陆桥、资源等本地化、内向性职能较突出,而口岸、通道等全球化、开放性等地缘职能不明显。（2）城镇人口规模及生态禀赋对城镇化绿色发展时空分异的作用大于经济增长,社会城镇化明显偏弱;但经济、社会功能增势明显,城镇化时空分异的均质性、同构化趋势渐强。（3）人均GDP是绿色发展时空分异的核心驱动,质量效益是推进新疆城镇化绿色发展的最重要动力;投资规模和效益、教育文化医疗建设是绿色发展的有效途径。而对外贸易、人口集聚、结构升级等功能弱、增长慢。应着力培育城镇化绿色发展新产能、新动力,积极参与全球及区域经贸合作,加快融入国内外双循环,提高基础设施和公共服务保障水平。

关键词: 绿色发展, 时空分异, 驱动因子, 地理探测器, 南北疆

Abstract:

As the key point of western development and the core area of “The Belt and Road” urbanization in Xinjiang, China has distinct regional characteristics and geographic attributes. Scientific diagnosis and identification of driving factors for green urbanization can provide empirical evidence for overall border development and security planning. According to the theory of green development and spatial structure, using entropy method, geostatistical analysis, and exploratory spatial analysis method, based on the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern of urbanization green development in 14 prefectures (cities) in Xinjiang of China in 2008—2018 has been studied. The mentioned conclusions have been reached: (1) Xinjiang’s urbanization is characterized by a lack of green development, slow growth, and a lack of spatial dependence and heterogeneity. Furthermore, there is significant core-periphery differentiation between southern and northern Xinjiang, and the development of population, economy, society, and ecological urbanization is not coordinated. The localized and introverted functions of land bridges and resources are more prominent, while the geopolitical functions such as globalization and openness of ports and passages are not obvious. (2) The scale of urban population and ecological endowments are more important in the temporal and spatial differentiation of urbanization green development than economic growth, and social urbanization is lower; moreover, the economic and social functions have increased significantly, and the homogeneity and isomorphism of the temporal and spatial differentiation of urbanization are becoming stronger. (3) The GDP per capita is the core driver of the temporal and spatial differentiation of green development, and quality and efficiency are the most important driving force for the green development of Xinjiang’s urbanization; investment scale and benefits, education, culture, and medical construction are effective ways of green development. Foreign trade, population agglomeration, and structural upgrading, on the other hand, are weak and growing slowly. The government should concentrate on developing new production capacity and new impetus for green urbanization, actively participating in global and regional economic and trade cooperation, accelerating integration into the domestic and international dual cycle, and improving infrastructure and public service guarantees.

Key words: green development, temporal and spatial differentiation, driving factors, geographic detectors, northern and southern Xinjiang

张军民,荣城,马玉香. 新疆城镇化绿色发展时空分异及驱动因子探究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 251-262.

ZHANG Junmin,RONG Cheng,MA Yuxiang. Spatial and temporal differences and driving factors of the green development of urbanization in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 251-262.

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目标层	准则层	指标	计算	单位	权重
空间分异	人口城镇化	地州人口密度（X1）	地州人口/全疆	%	0.062
		城镇人口密度（X2）	城镇人口/全疆城镇	%	0.074
		城镇化率（X3）	城镇人口/地州人口	%	0.041
		人口自然增长率（X4）	出生率-死亡率	%	0.100
	经济城镇化	人均GDP（X5）	GDP/地州人口	%	0.086
		二产占比（X6）	第二产业产值/GDP	%	0.043
		三产占比（X7）	第三产业产值/GDP	%	0.035
		人均进出口总值（X8）	进出口总额/城镇人口	10⁴元·人^-1	0.103
	社会城镇化	人均固定资产投资（X9）	固定资产投资总额/城镇人口	10⁴元·人^-1	0.067
		人均消费品零售总额（X10）	社会消费品零售总额/城镇人口	10⁴元·人^-1	0.062
		人均受教育水平（X11）	受教育人数/城镇人口	%	0.059
		人均医疗水平（X12）	医疗技术人数/城镇人口	%	0.045
	生态禀赋	人均耕地面积（X13）	地州耕地面积/城镇人口	km²·人^-1	0.154
	生态禀赋	人均水资源（X14）	地州水资源总量/城镇人口	m³·人^-1	0.070

驱动因子	q值	P值
人口城镇化	0.549	0.539
经济城镇化	0.400	0.716
社会城镇化	0.061	0.716
生态城镇化	0.427	0.160

驱动因子	q值	P值
X1	0.013	0.938
X2	0.157	0.760
X3	0.034	0.858
X4	0.034	0.858
X5^*	0.928	0.000
X6	0.190	0.370
X7	0.163	0.607
X8	0.007	0.970
X9^*	0.818	0.018
X10	0.115	0.792
X11^*	0.533	0.033
X12	0.195	0.531
X13	0.119	0.567

驱动因子	X5	X9	X11
X5	0.928	-	-
X9	0.939	0.818	-
X11	0.979	0.981	0.533

年份	人口城镇化	经济城镇化	社会城镇化	生态城镇化
2008	0.104	0.295	0.077	0.338
2010	0.184	0.160	0.169	0.095
2013	0.177	0.616	0.187	0.055
2016	0.464	0.425	0.095	0.072
2018	0.136	0.998	0.136	0.222