数字经济能否促进黄河流域旅游经济韧性提升?

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.090

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

数字经济赋能旅游业智慧化转型，产业整体危机抵抗和创新转型能力得以提升，为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供了新契机。在系统阐述数字经济影响旅游经济韧性的理论基础后，基于黄河流域81个地级市2008—2020年面板数据，运用固定效应模型、双重差分模型检验了数字经济对黄河流域旅游经济韧性的影响及其作用机制。结果表明：（1）数字经济发展可以直接促进旅游经济韧性提升，以“大数据综合试验区”的设立作为准自然实验等一系列稳健性和内生性检验后结论依旧成立。（2）数字经济通过促进要素流动、提高创新水平，间接提升了黄河流域旅游经济韧性。（3）异质性分析表明，黄河流域数字经济对旅游经济韧性的作用受地理区位和旅游业发展程度的影响，其效应呈现为“中游>上游>下游”的状态；数字经济在旅游发展程度高的地区促进效果更好。研究结果为黄河流域深度推进“数字+旅游”的发展策略，加强旅游产业防范风险和应对外部冲击提供了政策依据。

关键词: 数字经济, 旅游经济韧性, 要素流动, 创新能力, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Digital economy empowers the tourism industry to transform intelligently; as a result, the overall crisis resistance and innovation transformation capacity of the tourism industry are enhanced, providing new opportunities for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. After systematically elaborating the theoretical basis of the impact of digital economy on the resilience of the tourism economy, the impact of the digital economy on the resilience of tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin and its mechanism of action are examined using fixed-effects models and difference-in-difference models based on panel data obtained from 81 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2020. The results revealed that: (1) The development of digital economy can directly promote the resilience of the tourism economy, and the conclusions from the study still hold after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests, including the establishment of the “Big Data Comprehensive Experimental Zone” as a quasi-natural experiment. (2) Digital economy indirectly improves the resilience of the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin by promoting factor mobility and improving innovation levels. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of digital economy on the resilience of the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin is dependent on the geographical location and degree of tourism development, decreasing in the order of “midstream region>upstream region>downstream region”; digital economy renders a better effect in areas with high degree of tourism development. The results of the study provide a policy basis for the Yellow River Basin to promote the development strategy of “digital + tourism” and strengthen the tourism industry to prevent risks and cope with external shocks.

Key words: digital economy, resilience of tourism economic, feature flow, ability to innovation, Yellow River Basin

生延超, 谭左思, 李倩, 许玲玲. 数字经济能否促进黄河流域旅游经济韧性提升?[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(10): 1704-1713.

SHENG Yanchao, TAN Zuosi, LI Qian, XU Lingling. Can the digital economy promote the resilience of the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin?[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(10): 1704-1713.

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变量类别	变量名称	变量	观测值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	旅游经济韧性	Res	1053	0.1044	0.0687	0.0286	0.4022
解释变量	数字经济	Dec	1053	0.0606	0.0569	0.0050	0.3465
控制变量	经济密度	Eco	1053	0.1824	0.2101	0.0013	1.6121
	金融发展水平	Fin	1053	0.9304	0.6989	0.1028	8.2914
	市场规模	Mar	1053	0.3478	0.1098	0.0172	0.8260
	政府支持	Gov	1053	0.2033	0.1346	0.0183	1.0268
	人口规模	Peo	1053	0.0414	0.0281	0.0019	0.1296
机制变量	要素流动	Fac	1053	0.1884	0.1289	0.0226	0.9645
	创新能力	Ski	1053	0.5972	1.2010	0.0000	9.4974

评价目标	一级指标	二级指标	指标计算	属性	权重
旅游经济韧性	抵抗力	旅游资源禀赋	A级景区指数	+	0.0871
		旅游经济规模	旅游收入占GDP比重	+	0.0518
			旅游总人次	+	0.0763
			游客人均旅游花费	+	0.0323
		地方经济基础	人均GDP	+	0.0387
		地方经济基础	第三产业增加值占GDP比重	+	0.0136
	恢复力	旅游经济投入	旅游固定资产	+	0.1098
		旅游接待	旅游从业人数	+	0.0952
		旅游基础设施	每万人拥有公厕数	+	0.1072
		旅游基础设施	人均拥有道路面积	+	0.0424
		生态环境	建成区绿地覆盖率	+	0.0044
			生活垃圾无害化处理率	+	0.0051
			污水处理厂集中处理率	+	0.0046
	更新力	旅游专业院校情况	普通高等学校数	+	0.1515
		旅游专业院校情况	财政一般预算内支出中教育支出	+	0.1355
		旅游专业人才情况	高等学校在校生人数	+	0.0444

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	指标属性	权重
数字经济发展水平	移动电话用户数	移动电话年末用户数	+	0.1206
	互联网普及率	互联网普及率	+	0.1210
	数字产出	电信业务总量	+	0.3969
	数字产业从业人员	信息传输计算机服务和软件业从业人数	+	0.3612

变量	基准回归			稳健型检验
变量	回归1	回归2	回归3	回归4
Dec	0.3457^***（6.68）	0.3086^***（6.42）	-	-
L.Dec	-	-	0.2822^***（4.16）	-
Treated	-	-	-	0.0105^*（1.78）
Eco	-	0.0310^*（1.84）	0.0275（1.64）	0.0620^***（2.98）
Fin	-	0.0048^*（1.90）	0.0035（1.55）	0.0048（1.44）
Mar	-	0.0564^***（3.13）	0.0692^***（4.01）	0.0652^***（3.44）
Gov	-	0.0102（0.96）	0.0105（0.91）	0.0162（1.56）
Peo	-	0.0335（1.23）	0.0487^*（1.68）	0.0446（1.48）
Constant	0.0530^***（18.10）	0.0279^***（4.00）	0.0285^***（3.85）	0.0288^***（3.67）
控制变量	否	是	是	是
观测值	1053	1053	972	1053
R²	0.748	0.762	0.743	0.735
固定效应	是	是	是	是

变量	Fac		Ski
变量	回归5	回归6	回归7	回归8
Dec	0.3042^** （2.37）	0.3046^** （2.45）	11.7917^*** （4.14）	6.8579^*** （3.26）
控制变量	否	是	否	是
观测值	1053	1053	1053	1053
R²	0.238	0.240	0.380	0.532
固定效应	是	是	是	是