天山北坡经济带城市扩张对生境质量的影响

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.074

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (12): 2232-2246.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.074 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025074

天山北坡经济带城市扩张对生境质量的影响

王彦闻¹(), 杨欢²(), 涂佩玥², 丁昊³, 荆莹⁴, 何超⁵^,⁶

¹ 中国地质大学经济与管理学院，湖北武汉 430074
² 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院，湖北武汉 430072
³ 滇池学院商学院，云南昆明 651701
⁴ 浙大宁波理工学院商学院，浙江宁波 315100
⁵ 中国科学院武汉文献情报中心，湖北武汉 430071
⁶ 碳排放权交易湖北省协同创新中心，湖北武汉 430205

收稿日期:2025-02-16 修回日期:2025-04-11 出版日期:2025-12-25 发布日期:2025-12-30
通讯作者: 杨欢（2000-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事生态系统服务研究. E-mail: yanghuan_@whu.edu.cn
作者简介:王彦闻（1986-），女，博士研究生，副教授，主要从事生态经济学研究. E-mail: wensomone@163.com
基金资助:
浙江省教育厅一般科研项目(Y202249631);宁波市自然科学基金项目(20221JCGY010743)

Impact of urban expansion on habitat quality in the northern Tianshan Mountain economic zone

WANG Yanwen¹(), YANG Huan²(), TU Peiyue², DING Hao³, JING Ying⁴, HE Chao⁵^,⁶

¹ School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China
² School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China
³ School of Business, Dianchi College, Kunming 651701, Yunnan, China
⁴ Business School, Ningbo Tech University, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China
⁵ National Science Library (Wuhan), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, China
⁶ Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System Co-constructed by the Province and Ministry, Wuhan 430205, Hubei, China

Received:2025-02-16 Revised:2025-04-11 Published:2025-12-25 Online:2025-12-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

快速城市化引起的城市空间扩张会改变生态系统结构，削弱生境质量，进而影响可持续发展。探讨城市扩张对生境质量的影响，有助于实现土地利用的合理分配，并为生态系统服务的恢复与重建提供支持。以中国新疆天山北坡经济带为研究区，基于共享社会经济路径与土地利用情景动态-城市模型，预测了2024—2050年不同路径下未来城市扩张的情景，并评估了2000—2050年天山北坡经济带生境质量的时空格局。结果表明：（1） 2000—2023年天山北坡经济带城市用地迅速扩张，从551.72 km²扩张至1756.11 km²，扩张趋势为54.70 km²·a^-1，2023—2050年在化石燃料路径下，天山北坡经济带的城市用地扩张最显著；在区域竞争路径下，其扩张最不明显。天山北坡经济带的城市用地面积将持续扩张至3176.27~3859.20 km²，扩张趋势为244.03~369.38 km²·a^-1。（2） 2000—2023年天山北坡经济带生境质量从0.551下降至0.520，损失率为5.574%；2023—2050年天山北坡经济带的生境质量将持续降低，预计损失0.57×10^-2~0.82×10^-2，损失率为1.10%~1.58%。（3）城市用地侵占草地是导致天山北坡经济带生境质量损失的主要原因。在未来的城市规划和管理中，天山北坡经济带应更加注重恢复生态用地，以确保区域的可持续发展。

关键词: 生态系统服务, 城市扩张, 时空演变, 生境质量, 天山北坡经济带

Abstract:

Rapid urbanization and the attendant spatial expansion of urban regions can alter the structure of ecosystems, degrade habitat quality, and thereby impact sustainable development. Investigating the effects of urban expansion on habitat quality is crucial for the rational allocation of land use and supporting the restoration and reconstruction of ecosystems. This study focuses on the northern Tianshan Mountain economic zone (NTMEZ) in Xinjiang, China, where future urban expansion scenarios from 2024 to 2050 under different socioeconomic pathways are predicted using the Land Use Scenario Dynamic-Urban (LUSD-urban) model. The spatiotemporal changes in habitat quality from 2000 to 2050 in the region are also assessed. The results show that: (1) Between 2000 and 2023, urban land in the NTMEZ rapidly expanded from 551.72 km² to 1756.11 km², with an annual expansion rate of 54.70 km². From 2023 to 2050, under the fossil fuel pathway, urban land expansion is expected to be most significant, whereas under the regional competition pathway, expansion is expected to be least pronounced. The area of urban land is expected to further expand to between 3176.27 km² and 3859.20 km², with an annual expansion rate ranging from 244.03 km² to 369.38 km². (2) From 2000 to 2023, habitat quality in the NTMEZ declined from 0.551 to 0.520, representing a loss rate of 5.574%. From 2023 to 2050, habitat quality is expected to continue to decrease, with an anticipated loss of 0.57×10^-2‒0.82×10^-2, corresponding to a loss rate of 1.10%~1.58%. (3) The main driver of habitat quality loss is the encroachment of urban land on grasslands. In future urban planning and management, greater emphasis should be placed on the restoration of ecological land in the NTMEZ to ensure the region’s sustainable development.

Key words: ecosystem service, urban expansion, spatial and temporal evolution, habitat quality, the northern Tianshan Mountain economic zone

王彦闻, 杨欢, 涂佩玥, 丁昊, 荆莹, 何超. 天山北坡经济带城市扩张对生境质量的影响[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(12): 2232-2246.

WANG Yanwen, YANG Huan, TU Peiyue, DING Hao, JING Ying, HE Chao. Impact of urban expansion on habitat quality in the northern Tianshan Mountain economic zone[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(12): 2232-2246.

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数据名称	类型（分辨率）	时间跨度	来源
过去的人口、GDP	统计数据	2000—2023年	《中国统计年鉴》
未来的人口、GDP	栅格数据/0.5°	2024—2050年	Science Data Bank Platform， https://www.scidb.cn/en/detail?dataSetId=73c1ddbd79e54638bd0ca2a6bd48e3ff
土地利用/覆盖（LULC）	栅格数据/30 m	2000—2023年	China Land Cover Dataset， https://zenodo.org/records/8176941
高程、坡度	栅格数据/90 m	2000年	Google Earth Engine，SRTM Digital Elevation Data (Version 4)
行政区划、城市中心	矢量数据	2023年	标准地图服务， http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html
路网、河流	矢量数据	2013、2023年	Open Street Map， https://www.openstreetmap.org

城市	城市用地					生境质量
城市	2000年	2023年	扩张面积/km²	扩张率/%	趋势/km²·a^-1	2000年	2023年	损失	损失率/%	趋势/a^-1
温泉县	0.23	3.44	3.21	1395.65	0.12	0.777	0.746	0.031	3.946	-0.006
博乐市	30.37	90.29	59.92	197.30	2.56	0.694	0.672	0.022	3.182	-0.004
精河县	26.41	270.41	244.00	923.89	10.04	0.578	0.547	0.031	5.418	-0.006
乌苏市	53.06	192.23	139.17	262.29	6.92	0.596	0.580	0.015	2.551	-0.004
克拉玛依市	15.82	82.91	67.09	424.08	3.08	0.324	0.309	0.015	4.679	-0.003
奎屯市	28.80	98.30	69.50	241.32	3.48	0.760	0.636	0.123	16.248	-0.029
沙湾市	23.84	105.12	81.28	340.94	3.70	0.575	0.553	0.021	3.739	-0.006
石河子市	19.78	80.17	60.39	305.31	2.91	0.553	0.527	0.027	4.851	-0.005
玛纳斯县	20.52	80.34	59.82	291.52	2.82	0.492	0.488	0.005	0.952	-0.001
呼图壁县	11.43	47.82	36.39	318.37	1.76	0.597	0.562	0.035	5.810	-0.011
昌吉市	33.16	107.79	74.63	225.06	3.51	0.611	0.570	0.042	6.827	-0.009
米泉市	49.93	124.79	74.86	149.93	3.52	0.493	0.462	0.031	6.302	-0.007
阜康市	12.43	41.68	29.25	235.32	1.38	0.491	0.428	0.063	12.886	-0.013
吉木萨尔县	5.29	18.11	12.82	242.34	0.54	0.494	0.438	0.056	11.289	-0.009
奇台县	9.29	24.46	15.17	163.29	0.63	0.387	0.364	0.022	5.805	-0.005
木垒哈萨克县	22.55	23.37	0.82	3.64	0.01	0.586	0.530	0.056	9.622	-0.010
乌鲁木齐市	188.81	364.88	176.07	93.25	7.56	0.674	0.615	0.059	8.738	-0.012
整体	551.72	1756.11	1204.39	218.30	54.70	0.551	0.520	0.031	5.574	-0.008

城市	城市用地			生境质量
城市	2023—2050年扩张面积/km²	扩张率/%	趋势/km²·a^-1	2023—2050年损失/10^-2	损失率/%	趋势/10^-3·a^-1
温泉县	0.02~0.03	0.58~0.87	0.00~0.01	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00
博乐市	51.64~69.02	57.19~76.44	9.01~12.88	0.35~0.46	0.52~0.69	-0.86~-0.61
精河县	129.59~195.43	47.92~72.27	24.31~38.13	0.50~0.75	0.91~1.37	-1.47~-0.94
乌苏市	215.74~335.97	112.23~174.78	37.58~57.39	0.81~1.23	1.40~2.13	-2.18~-1.42
克拉玛依市	90.95~178.02	109.70~214.71	16.42~25.76	0.60~1.14	1.94~3.69	-1.77~-1.10
奎屯市	98.68~140.91	100.39~143.35	15.69~23.39	3.79~5.26	5.95~8.26	-8.84~-6.17
沙湾市	77.77~125.63	73.98~119.51	14.02~21.69	0.38~0.59	0.69~1.07	-1.05~-0.68
石河子市	83.51~114.75	104.17~143.13	13.92~19.72	9.55~12.69	18.13~24.10	-21.38~-15.72
玛纳斯县	75.82~116.51	94.37~145.02	12.98~19.78	0.43~0.64	0.89~1.32	-1.15~-0.74
呼图壁县	57.09~84.12	119.39~175.91	10.68~15.67	0.41~0.60	0.74~1.07	-1.15~-0.77
昌吉市	123.78~184.30	114.83~170.98	21.93~33.47	1.10~1.61	1.93~2.82	-2.99~-1.96
米泉市	107.76~160.78	86.35~128.84	18.05~27.41	2.01~2.90	4.35~6.28	-5.14~-3.37
阜康市	36.70~52.41	88.05~125.74	6.65~10.03	0.32~0.45	0.74~1.05	-0.86~-0.58
吉木萨尔县	1.89~2.48	10.44~13.69	0.33~0.47	0.02~0.03	0.05~0.06	-0.05~-0.03
奇台县	1.94~2.53	7.93~10.34	0.34~0.49	0.01~0.01	0.02~0.03	-0.02~-0.02
木垒哈萨克县	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00	0.00~0.00
乌鲁木齐市	267.28~340.20	73.25~93.24	46.10~59.51	1.78~2.24	2.89~3.64	-3.91~-3.06
整体	1420.16~2103.09	80.87~119.76	244.03~369.38	0.57~0.82	1.10~1.58	-1.48~-0.99

天山北坡经济带城市扩张对生境质量的影响

Impact of urban expansion on habitat quality in the northern Tianshan Mountain economic zone

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