基于“水-能源-粮食”关系的生态系统服务供需匹配研究——以天山北坡城市群为例

摘要/Abstract

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参考文献 46

Metrics

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.522

摘要：

水、能源、粮食是生态系统服务的重要组分，对供需平衡和区域高质量发展具有重要意义。利用InVEST模型、供需匹配度（SDMD）、Pearson相关性分析等方法量化2000—2020年天山北坡城市群产水、固碳、土壤保持和粮食生产4种生态系统服务的时空特征，探究不同尺度下供需匹配的空间异质性。结果表明：（1）研究区粮食生产服务供给总体呈上升趋势，产水、固碳与土壤保持服务供给则呈下降趋势。产水、固碳、土壤保持和粮食生产服务需求均呈上升趋势。（2）研究区产水和粮食生产服务供给呈西高东低，但需求与人口密集区重叠呈点状分布。固碳服务供给呈西南及中部高、东北部低，土壤保持服务供给与需求呈点状高值分布于天山山脉，供需空间分布大致相同。（3）土壤保持和粮食生产服务的SDMD上升，产水和固碳服务的SDMD呈下降。不同尺度下SDMD具有空间异质性，格网尺度下最为显著。（4）不同生态系统服务空间分异明显，分区控制-分类优化-分级治理是有效综合管控策略，可为天山北坡城市群经济社会高质量发展、生态环境保护和恢复提供科学支撑。

关键词: “水-能源-粮食”纽带, 生态系统服务, 供需匹配, InVEST模型

Abstract:

Water, energy, and food are critical components of ecosystem services, influencing the supply-demand balance and high-quality regional development. Using the InVEST model, supply-demand matching degree (SDMD), Pearson correlation analysis, and other methods, this study quantifies the spatiotemporal characteristics of four ecosystem services (water production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and food provision) in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China from 2000 to 2020 and explores the spatial heterogeneity of supply-demand matching at different scales. The results indicate that: (1) The overall supply of food provision services in the study area exhibited an upward trend, whereas the supply of water production, carbon sequestration, and soil conservation services declined. The demand for all four services increased. (2) The supply of water production and food provision services was higher in the west and lower in the east, while demand was concentrated in densely populated areas in a point-like distribution. Carbon sequestration services had higher supply levels in the southwest and central regions and lower levels in the northeast. The supply and demand of soil conservation services formed a point-like high-value distribution in the Tianshan Mountains, with their spatial distribution roughly aligned. (3) The SDMD of soil conservation and food provision services increased, whereas the SDMD of water production and carbon sequestration services decreased. SDMD exhibited spatial heterogeneity across different scales, with the most significant variations observed at the grid scale. (4) The spatial differentiation of ecosystem services was evident, highlighting the need for zoning control, classification optimization, and hierarchical governance. These strategies can provide scientific support for high-quality economic and social development, ecological protection, and the restoration of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.

Key words: “water-energy-food” nexus, ecosystem services, matching supply and demand, InVEST model

李炳坤, 张晓克, 骆占斌, 马静, 杨永均, 陈浮. 基于“水-能源-粮食”关系的生态系统服务供需匹配研究——以天山北坡城市群为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 571-585.

LI Bingkun, ZHANG Xiaoke, LUO Zhanbin, MA Jing, YANG Yongjun, CHEN Fu. Matching between supply and demand of ecosystem services based on the “water-energy-food” nexus: A case of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 571-585.

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数据名称	数据来源	用途	数据格式	分辨率
土地利用数据	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn/）	土地利用数据	栅格数据	30 m
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn/）	植被覆盖度与植被覆盖管理因子	栅格数据	1 km
高程数据	地理空间数据云（http://www.gscloud.cn/）	坡度、流域阈值	栅格数据	250 m
土壤数据	世界土壤数据库（https://soilgrids.org/）	土壤可蚀性因子	栅格数据	1 km
年降水量	中国气象数据网（http://data.cma.cn/）	降水侵蚀因子	栅格数据	1 km
蒸散发量	MODIS热图像和全球天气数据集（http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/mod16）	蒸散发参数	栅格数据	1 km
根系深度	世界土壤数据库（HWSD）的中国土壤数据集V1.1（http://data.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data）	根系最大深度、植物蒸散系数、植物有效含水量	栅格数据	1 km
耗水量、能源消耗、粮食生产、食品需求	自治区及各市、县、兵团统计年鉴、水资源、能源公报	水资源、能源和粮食需求量	统计数据	行政单元
人口密度	WorldPop（https://www.worldpop.org/）	人口空间分布	栅格数据	1 km

年份	产水服务/t·hm^-2		固碳服务/t·hm^-2		土壤保持服务/t·hm^-2		粮食生产服务/t·hm^-2
年份	供给	需求	供给	需求	供给	需求	供给	需求
2000	505.08	534.80	78.64	0.65	89.51	33.42	0.10	0.03
2005	570.19	617.20	78.51	0.93	99.53	37.21	0.09	0.04
2010	722.02	520.40	78.53	1.10	108.83	38.73	0.14	0.04
2015	716.70	682.30	78.41	1.80	114.00	42.17	0.17	0.05
2020	416.09	598.90	78.04	1.96	71.66	36.80	0.12	0.04