关键词: 气候变化, 平均风速, 突变特征, 小波分析, 南北疆

Abstract: Growing interests in simulating changes in hydrological processes at global and regional scales correspond to increasing floods and draughts at the global scale induced by climate change，which would have a significant impact on social and economic systems，food security and the survival and development of humans. By connecting annual wind speed data of forty-five meteorological stations which were evenly distributed in north and south Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013 with the existing climatic regionalization of Xinjiang，rate of linear tendency，Mann-Kendall test，Morlet wavelet analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were used to illustrate the change trends and detected abrupt changes of meteorological elements respectively. In the paper，the climate changes of the north and south Xinjiang were studied in the last 50 years. The results showed as follows：（1）From 1960 to 2013，the north Xinjiang average wind speed reduced significantly at a rate of 0.14 m·s^-1·（10 a）^-1，while the south Xinjiang average wind speed was 0.15 m·s-1·（10 a）^-1；In 1960-2010，the average annual wind speed in the southern and northern part of Xinjiang were at a rate of 0.21 m·s^-1·（10 a）^-1 and 0.18 m·s^-1·（10 a）^-1 decreasing respectively；However，during 1991-2013，the north Xinjiang had a decline rate by 0.01 m·s^-1·（10 a）^-1，while the south Xinjiang was 0.17 m·s^-1·（10 a）^-1 rising，and the seasonal trend in wind speed sequence was similar. （2）For four seasons，the annual decline rate in north and south Xinjiang showed the most significant changes in summer，while the south was no obvious in winter. Other seasons in the south Xinjiang were similar. （3）From the spatial distribution of the display，each site in the north was higher than the south. Low altitudes were diminishing by a big margin；（4）Long-term changes in wind speed was of sudden changes，while the average wind speed abrupt time was apparent in 1980 in the south and north Xinjiang. From an average wind speed of each season，it showed that the abrupt time in spring ,summer and autumn appeared earlier than that of in winter in the north Xinjiang，and the abrupt time in spring appeared earlier than that of in summer,autumn and winter in the south Xinjiang. （5）Results of Morlet wavelet analysis showed that the presence of wind speed change exist 4 a，8 a and 15-20 a periods，four seasons showed strong inconsistent，reflecting a seasonal variation. （6）The development of city construction had some effect on wind speed change，however，regional current change and global warming were the main reasons for wind speed decreasing.