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干旱区地理 ›› 2014, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 1137-1146.

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析

刘志方1，2，刘友存1，郝永红1，韩添丁3，崔玉环4，王建3，王中良1   

  1. （1 天津师范大学天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室，天津300387； 2 天津师范大学数学科学学院，天津300387；3 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所，甘肃兰州730000； 4 安徽农业大学理学院，安徽合肥230036）
  • 收稿日期:2013-11-12 修回日期:2014-02-15 出版日期:2014-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 刘友存, Email：liuyc@lzb.ac.cn; liuyoucun@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:刘志方（1989-），男，河南南阳人，硕士研究生，研究方向为水文气象数值模拟
  • 基金资助:

    国家基础研究重大项目（973）（2013CBA01808）；国家自然科学基金项目（41471001，41173096，41001006，41271035）

Multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in the upstream of Heihe River

LIU Zhi?fang1，2，LIU You-cun1，HAO Yong-hong1，HAN Tian-ding3，CUI Yu-huan4，WANG Jian3，WANG Zhong-liang1   

  1. （1 Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China; 2 College of Mathematical Science,
    Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387,China; 3 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of
    Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China; 4 School of Science, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, Anhui, China）
  • Received:2013-11-12 Revised:2014-02-15 Online:2014-11-25

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摘要： 运用交叉小波对黑河上游野牛沟气象站1959-2010 年和祁连气象站1957-2010 年年降水（AP）与年均气温（AAT）、北极涛动指数（AOI）和莺落峡站（1944-2010 年）的年均径流量（AAR）进行了多尺度分析。结果表明：AOI 存在3～5 a 尺度的显著周期，AAT 存在3 a 尺度的显著周期，AP存在3 a 和4～6 a 尺度的显著周期，AAR 存在3 a、2.5～4 a 和5 a 比较显著的周期；黑河上游径流的增加主要是受“暖湿”气候影响；AAR 与AOI、AAT 呈现出3 a 的负相关和3～4 a 的近似负相关共振周期，AAR 与AP 存在2～7 a 的显著性的共振周期，降水对径流的影响很大，为径流的主要补给来源；受AOI 的影响，AAR 在1987 年发生3 a 周期的“丰-枯”转换，受AAT 的影响，AAR 在1974 年和1996 年发生3 a 周期的“丰-枯”转换，受AP 的影响，AAR 在1986 年发生3 a 周期的“丰-枯”转换。降水和气温是影响径流变化的主导因素。

关键词: 交叉小波, 气候变化, 径流变化, 非平稳时间序列, 黑河

Abstract: Wavelet analysis is a useful tool for analyzing multi-time scale and heteroscedastic time series. In this paper，the multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation is used to study runoff and climate factors as well as their relationships in the upstream of the Heihe River. The runoff time series（AAR）is constituted of annual average runoff at Yingluoxia Station from 1944 to 2010，and the climate factors consist of: annual index of Arctic Oscillation （AOI）from 1950-2010，annual average temperature（AAT）at Yeniugou Station（1959-2010）and Qilian Station （1957-2010），annual precipitation （AP）at Yeniugou Station（1959-2010）and Qilian Station（1957-2010）. Firstly，continuous wavelet transformation was used to analyze runoff（AAR）and meteorological time series（i.e. AOI，AAT and AP），and then we used cross-wavelet transformation and wavelet coherence to study relationships between AAR and meteorological time series（i.e. AOI，AAT and AP）respectively. Besides，Monte Carlo methods were used to assess the statistical significance against red noise backgrounds because the addition of statistical significance tests will improve the quantitative nature of wavelet analysis. Results of continuous wavelet transformation show that AOI has significant 3-5 a periods，AAT has a significant 3 a period，AP has relatively significant 3 a and 4-6 a periods，and AAR has three relatively significant periods which are 3 a，2.5-4 a and 5 a. Besides，the fact that the high-energy zone of AAR covers most of high-energy areas of AAT and AP indicates that AAR variability in the upstream of the Heihe River has a positive response to variability of AAT and AP，and the runoff increase is mainly affected by warm and humid climate. Moreover，results of cross wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence show that AAR is inversely related to AOI with a 3-a resonant period，and AAR is almost negatively related to AAT with 3-4 a resonant period; the fact that AAR has significant 2-7 a resonant periods with AP demonstrates that the precipitation has a great influence on runoff and it is the main supply of the runoff; Influenced by AOI，precipitation and temperature individually，the runoff exhibits a 3-a periodic variation of high flow and low flow in the mutations year 1987，1986，1974 and 1996，respectively. In addition，the results imply that precipitation and temperature are the dominant factors that influence the variation of runoff. The cross wavelet analysis is capable to reveal the correlation between the variation of hydrological element（runoff）and the variability of meteorological elements（temperature and precipitation）in the upstream of the Heihe River. Forecasts of the future evolutions of water resources in the upstream of the Heihe River is feasible based on the results. Moreover，it is hoped that the analysis presented here will be proved useful in studies of nonstationary time series.

Key words: cross wavelet analysis, climate change, runoff variability, nonstationary time series, the Heihe River

中图分类号: 

  • P333.1