黄河流域农作物受灾时空演变特征及致灾因子

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.685

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黄河流域作为我国生态脆弱性集中凸显的区域与农业灾害高发地带，农作物受灾问题对区域粮食安全及经济发展具有重要影响。基于2003—2023年黄河流域9省（区）的农作物受灾率数据，综合运用重心迁移-标准差椭圆、核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数以及时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型来探究黄河流域农作物受灾的时空演变特征及致灾因子。结果表明：（1）黄河流域农作物受灾率整体呈下降趋势。（2）农作物受灾率重心始终位于上游和中游地区，反映出该区域是农作物受灾的主要承载区；核密度估计进一步揭示了上游地区内部差异加剧，中游地区内部差异较大，下游地区呈两极分化现象。Dagum基尼系数则表明农作物受灾率的总体差异较大，地区间差异是农作物受灾率总体差异的主要来源。（3）黄河流域农作物受灾率的主要致灾因子包括年均降水量、森林覆盖率和坡度，其中坡度主要呈正向影响，年均降水量、森林覆盖率均呈负向影响。研究结果可为黄河流域精准制定防灾减灾策略、优化农业布局、保障粮食安全提供科学依据，助力黄河流域实现生态保护与高质量发展目标。

关键词: 农作物受灾率, 时空演变, 致灾因子, GTWR模型, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin, a region in China acutely vulnerable to ecological damage and prone to agricultural disasters, faces significant challenges from crop failures that threaten both food security and economic development. This study analyzes crop disaster rate data from nine provinces (autonomous regions) in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2023. The study utilizes a comprehensive methodology, including a center-of-gravity migration-standard deviational ellipse, kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and underlying causes of these disasters. The results revealed the following: (1) The Yellow River Basin experienced an overall decline in its crop disaster rate. (2) The crop disaster rate consistently remained highest in the upper and middle reaches, indicating that these areas bear the brunt of crop disasters. Kernel density estimation further revealed intensifying disparities within the upper reaches, significant internal disparities in the middle reaches, and a polarization phenomenon in the lower reaches. The Dagum Gini coefficient indicated significant overall disparities in the crop disaster rate, primarily driven by differences between regions. (3) The main factors influencing the crop disaster rate in the Yellow River Basin are annual average precipitation, forest coverage, and slope. Slope generally has a positive effect, whereas annual average precipitation and forest coverage have negative effects. These findings offer a scientific basis for developing precise disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, optimizing agricultural planning, and ensuring food security in the Yellow River Basin. This will contribute to achieving ecological protection and high-quality development goals in the region.

Key words: crop disaster rate, spatiotemporal evolution, disaster-inducing factors, GTWR model, Yellow River Basin

李晓鹏, 贾富贵, 雷双, 李康. 黄河流域农作物受灾时空演变特征及致灾因子[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(9): 1815-1825.

LI Xiaopeng, JIA Fugui, LEI Shuang, LI Kang. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and disaster-inducing factors of crop disasters in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(9): 1815-1825.

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年份	面积/km²	重心经度坐标/E	重心纬度坐标/N	长轴标准差/km	短轴标准差/km	方位角/(°)
2003	2487364.82	108°12′39″	37°00′10″	1139.95	694.60	63.53
2006	2187929.48	105°57′14″	37°15′57″	1156.14	602.44	65.59
2009	2342105.75	108°20′20″	37°58′54″	1136.42	656.07	63.54
2012	2359789.13	107°25′28″	37°32′34″	1196.27	627.96	71.06
2015	2248888.71	106°46′15″	37°57′41″	1250.20	572.64	68.08
2018	2241325.94	108°51′27″	38°18′14″	1099.77	648.76	62.92
2021	1403005.99	108°22′06″	37°20′54″	845.88	528.00	69.18
2023	2101323.99	109°06′47″	38°14′37″	1035.23	646.15	51.73

指标	共线性诊断
指标	显著性	方差膨胀因子（VIF）
年均降水量	0.003	5.661
森林覆盖率	0.001	4.890
海拔	0.001	5.920
坡度	0.001	7.063
水库数量	0.003	3.107
水土流失治理面积	0.734	1.957

模型	OLS	GWR	GTWR
AICc	-242.290	-281.412	-310.473
R²	0.355	0.551	0.726
调整后R²	-	0.539	0.718

指标	2003年	2006年	2009年	2012年	2015年	2018年	2021年	2023年
年均降水量	-0.00028	-0.00053	-0.00060	-0.00026	-0.00030	-0.00020	-0.00006	-0.00003
森林覆盖率	0.00344	-0.00082	-0.00379	-0.00423	-0.00124	-0.00048	-0.00089	0.00090
海拔	0.00001	-0.00005	-0.00009	-0.00003	-0.00001	0.00003	-0.00004	-0.00002
坡度	-0.00180	0.03088	0.04796	0.02457	0.01229	0.01310	0.01950	0.00723
水库数量	-0.00002	-0.00001	-0.00001	-0.00001	-0.00001	-0.00002	-0.00002	-0.00002