青藏高寒区自然资本可持续利用时空分异特征及驱动因素——以青海省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.395

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (7): 1418-1429.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.395 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025395

青藏高寒区自然资本可持续利用时空分异特征及驱动因素——以青海省为例

李灵灵¹(), 任君¹^,²^,³, 李成英¹(), 王淑琦¹, 陈瑞¹, 文硕¹

¹ 青海大学土木水利学院，青海西宁 810016
² 青海大学财经学院，青海西宁 810016
³ 青海大学黄河上游生态保护和高质量发展实验室，青海西宁 810016

收稿日期:2025-07-09 修回日期:2025-09-01 出版日期:2026-07-25 发布日期:2026-07-07
通讯作者: 李成英（1979-），女，硕士，副教授，主要从事土地资源利用与管理方向的研究. E-mail: lichengying@qhu.edu.cn
作者简介:李灵灵（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事低碳土地利用与可持续发展方向的研究. E-mail: lilingling@qhu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社科基金项目青年项目(21CGL040);青海省哲学社会科学青年项目(23Q060);青海大学黄河上游生态保护和高质量发展实验室开放基金项目(2025hhsy04);青海大学大学生创新训练计划项目(2024-QX-60)

Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of sustainable utilization of natural capital in the Qinghai-Xizang alpine region: A case of Qinghai Province

LI Lingling¹(), REN Jun¹^,²^,³, LI Chengying¹(), WANG Shuqi¹, CHEN Rui¹, WEN Shuo¹

¹ School of Civil & Water Resources, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, Qinghai, China
² School of Finance and Economics, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, Qinghai, China
³ Laboratory of Ecological Protection and High Quality Development in the Upper Yellow River, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, Qinghai, China

Received:2025-07-09 Revised:2025-09-01 Published:2026-07-25 Online:2026-07-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自然资本可持续利用是区域高质量发展的核心议题。以青海省8市州为对象，综合运用改进的三维生态足迹模型、标准差椭圆模型及时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型，从市州尺度定量研究了2012—2022年青海省自然资本利用的时空动态特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 2012—2022年青海省人均生态足迹由2.5 hm²·人^-1增至3.0 hm²·人^-1，人均生态承载力由0.6 hm²·人^-1增至0.8 hm²·人^-1，人均生态赤字由1.9 hm²·人^-1扩大至2.5 hm²·人^-1，足迹重心向西北迁移，反映资源环境压力持续增大。（2）空间上，玉树藏族自治州、海西蒙古族藏族自治州和果洛藏族自治州生态足迹较高，西宁市最低；仅海东市处于生态盈余，且其足迹广度最高，果洛藏族自治州足迹广度最低；玉树藏族自治州和果洛藏族自治州足迹深度最高。（3）自然资本资本流量占用率和存量流量利用比的空间差异明显且整体呈“西高东低”的空间分布特征，8市州处于轻度可持续以下状态。（4）自然资本利用影响因素空间异质性显著，固定资产投资增速回归系数呈“北低南高”，发电量回归系数“东低西高”，需因地制宜实施差异化策略，促进生态与经济协同发展。研究结果可为青藏高寒区生态资源管理及可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 自然资本, 可持续利用, 三维生态足迹模型, GTWR模型, 青海省

Abstract:

The sustainable utilization of natural capital is a core issue in regional high-quality development. This study, focusing on eight cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province of China, applied an improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model, a standard deviation ellipse model, and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to quantitatively examine spatiotemporal dynamics and the driving factors of natural capital use from 2012 to 2022 at the prefectural level. The results indicate that (1) From 2012 to 2022, the per capita ecological footprint in Qinghai increased from 2.5 hm²·person^-1 to 3.0 hm²·person^-1, the per capita ecological carrying capacity rose from 0.6 hm²·person^-1 to 0.8 hm²·person^-1, and the per capita ecological deficit expanded from 1.9 hm²·person^-1 to 2.5 hm²·person^-1. The gravity center of the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint shifted northwestward, reflecting an increasing pressure on resources and the environment from human economic activities. (2) Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Haixi Mongolian and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, and Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had larger ecological footprints, while Xining City was the lowest. Haidong City was the only region with an ecological surplus. Haidong City had the largest footprint, and Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture the smallest; Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture showed the greatest depth of footprint. (3) Both the natural capital flow occupancy rate and stock-flow utilization ratio exhibited a high in the west, low in the east pattern, and all eight prefectures were in a slightly unsustainable or worse state. (4) The influencing factors of natural capital use showed significant spatial heterogeneity: the regression coefficient of fixed asset investment growth rate showed a low in the north and high in the south pattern, while the regression coefficient of power generation had a low in the east and high in the west pattern. It is necessary to apply differentiated strategies that are tailored to local conditions to promote synergistic ecological and economic development. This study provides a scientific basis for the management of ecological resources and sustainable development in the Tibetan Alpine region.

Key words: natural capital, sustainable utilization, three-dimensional ecological footprint model, GTWR model, Qinghai Province

李灵灵, 任君, 李成英, 王淑琦, 陈瑞, 文硕. 青藏高寒区自然资本可持续利用时空分异特征及驱动因素——以青海省为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1418-1429.

LI Lingling, REN Jun, LI Chengying, WANG Shuqi, CHEN Rui, WEN Shuo. Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of sustainable utilization of natural capital in the Qinghai-Xizang alpine region: A case of Qinghai Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1418-1429.

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足迹类别	土地类型	消费项目	均衡因子	产量因子
生物资源	耕地	小麦、杂粮、蚕豆、豌豆、薯类、油菜籽、烟叶、蔬菜和食用菌、瓜果、甜菜、枸杞、猪肉	4.3805	0.7442
	林地	苹果、梨、葡萄、蜂蜜、木材	0.1676	0.0801
	草地	牛肉、羊肉、其他、牛奶、羊毛	0.0722	0.2382
	水域（湖泊、河流积雪和冰川）	水产品	0.0475	4.2342
能源资源	建设用地	一次电力、原煤、天然气、石油	4.3805	0.7442

类型	解释变量	方差膨胀因子
经济发展	地区生产总值/10⁸元	30.691
	第二产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重/%	8.087
	第三产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重/%	7.263
	固定资产投资增速/%	1.393
社会发展	城镇居民可支配收入/元	20.226
	城镇居民人均消费生活支出/元·人^-1	10.855
	农村居民可支配收入/元	35.334
	农村居民人均消费生活支出/元·人^-1	22.464
科技进步	互联网宽带接入用户数/户	42.156
科技进步	科学研究从业人员数量/人	5.720
能源强度	农村用电量/10⁴ kWh	12.224
	发电量/10⁸ kWh	1.701
	化肥施用量/t	5.853

自变量	系数估计	标准差	t值	P值
常数项	7.715	1.001	7.703	0.000
第二产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重	-0.003	0.013	-0.250	0.803
第三产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重	-0.093	0.018	-5.233	0.000
固定资产投资增速	-0.011	0.007	-1.663	0.100
科学研究从业人员数量	0.000	0.000	0.868	0.388
发电量	-0.003	0.002	-1.824	0.072
化肥施用量	0.000	0.000	-5.178	0.000

模型参数	OLS	GWR	GTWR
R²	0.5263	0.9957	0.9965
AICc	197.9	137.7	57.7
模型特征	无时间、无空间	有空间、无时间	有时间、有空间

青藏高寒区自然资本可持续利用时空分异特征及驱动因素——以青海省为例

Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of sustainable utilization of natural capital in the Qinghai-Xizang alpine region: A case of Qinghai Province

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