黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.486

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (8): 1711-1723.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.486 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025486

黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制

罗庆¹^,²^,³(), 臧永婷¹^,²^,³, 王云龙¹^,²^,³, 王山冰¹^,²^,³, 刘乐¹^,²^,³

¹ 河南财经政法大学城乡规划学院，河南郑州 450046
² 河南财经政法大学黄河流域经济协调发展研究中心，河南郑州 450046
³ 河南财经政法大学城乡社会经济系统演化分析与模拟实验室，河南郑州 450046

收稿日期:2025-08-21 修回日期:2025-09-04 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-08-21
作者简介:罗庆（1981-），男，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事城乡发展与规划等方面的研究. E-mail: luoqing518@163.com
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(25YJA790046);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023BSH002);河南省高校哲学社会科学基础研究重大项目(2025-JCZD-11);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(25A790004)

Evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of population distribution patterns in townships along the Yellow River Basin

LUO Qing¹^,²^,³(), ZANG Yongting¹^,²^,³, WANG Yunlong¹^,²^,³, WANG Shanbing¹^,²^,³, LIU Le¹^,²^,³

¹ School of Urban and Rural Planning, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China
² Research Center for Coordinated Economic Development of the Yellow River Basin, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China
³ Laboratory of Evolutionary Analysis and Simulation for Urban-Rural Socioeconomic Systems, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China

Received:2025-08-21 Revised:2025-09-04 Published:2026-08-25 Online:2026-08-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

精细尺度的人口变化分析对深入理解人地系统耦合机制、优化区域发展政策具有重要的理论与实践意义。基于第五、六、七次全国人口普查数据，综合运用GIS空间分析、标准差椭圆和地理探测器等方法，系统解析2000—2020年黄河流域乡镇人口空间分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制。结果表明：（1）黄河流域乡镇人口密度分布呈现东部高、西部低的格局，与经济发展水平的分布格局相吻合。研究期内乡镇人口收缩明显，有5530个乡镇处于人口收缩状态，占乡镇总数量的59.89%。（2）人口分布存在较强的空间自相关效应。研究期内“高-高”型乡镇有935个，“低-低”型乡镇有2406个；人口增长热点区呈现“由北向南、由东向西”的扩展趋势；人口增长冷点区形成稳定的“中部塌陷”格局。人口分布重心在山西晋城市，并呈现向北部方向缓慢迁移的特征。（3）地理探测器分析揭示，自然地理、社会经济和地理区位因素的协同作用是塑造黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的关键机制，其中自然地理因素和地理区位因素之间的协同效应更强。不同区域的主导影响因素存在差异，人均耕地面积对人口分布的约束效应最为显著。

关键词: 影响因素, 地理探测器, 人口空间分布, 空间格局演化, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Fine-scale analyses of population changes are theoretically and practically significant important for deepening the understanding of human-land system coupling mechanisms and optimizing regional development policies. Drawing on the data of the fifth, sixth, and seventh Chinese national population censuses, this study systematically analyzes the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of spatial distribution patterns of township-level populations in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020, using comprehensive methods such as GIS spatial analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and geographical detection. The results indicate the following: (1) The population density distribution in the Yellow River Basin exhibits a pattern of showing high values in the east and low ones in the west, which is in alignment with the distribution pattern of economic development levels. During the study period, township population shrinkage was pronounced, with 5530 townships experiencing population decline, accounting for 59.89% of the total township population. (2) The population distribution displays a strong spatial autocorrelation. During the study period, there were 935 high-high type townships and 2406 low-low ones. The hotspots of population growth expanded from north to south and from east to west, and the cold spots of population growth formed a stable pattern of central collapse. The center of gravity of the population distribution was in Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, and it exhibited a slow northward migration trend. (3) Geographical detector analysis reveals that the synergistic effects of natural geographical conditions, levels of economic development, and locational factors were the key mechanisms shaping the population distribution pattern in the townships of the Yellow River Basin, with stronger synergistic effects observed between natural and locational factors. The dominant influencing factors vary across regions, and per capita arable land area exerted the most significant constraint effect on population distribution.

Key words: influencing factors, geographical detector, population spatial distribution, spatial pattern evolution, Yellow River Basin

罗庆, 臧永婷, 王云龙, 王山冰, 刘乐. 黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(8): 1711-1723.

LUO Qing, ZANG Yongting, WANG Yunlong, WANG Shanbing, LIU Le. Evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of population distribution patterns in townships along the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1711-1723.

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变量类型	编号	指标名称	指标含义
被解释变量	Y	人口密度	乡镇常住人口/乡镇土地面积
自然地理	X₁	高程	乡镇区域平均海拔
	X₂	温度	乡镇地表温度年平均值
	X₃	降雨量	乡镇地表降雨量年平均值
	X₄	河网密度	乡镇内干支流总河长/乡镇面积
社会经济	X₅	夜间灯光指数	乡镇内灯光亮度镇
	X₆	村庄密度	乡镇内村庄核密度值
	X₇	路网密度	乡镇内所有道路总长/乡镇面积
	X₈	人均耕地面积	乡镇区域内耕地面积/区域内总人口
地理区位	X₉	到县政府距离	各乡镇到最近县政府的距离
地理区位	X₁₀	到市政府距离	各乡镇到最近市政府的距离

指标	2000年		2010年		2020年
指标	q值	排序	q值	排序	q值	排序
高程	0.407^***	7	0.363^***	6	0.250^**	6
温度	0.338^***	9	0.335^**	7	0.152^**	9
降雨量	0.354^*	8	0.276^*	9	0.239^*	8
河网密度	0.110^*	10	0.114^*	10	0.079^*	10
夜间灯光指数	0.493^**	6	0.277^**	8	0.240^**	7
村庄密度	0.494^*	5	0.575^**	4	0.688^**	4
路网密度	0.514^*	4	0.435^**	5	0.744^***	2
人均耕地面积	0.786^***	1	0.698^***	1	0.821^***	1
到县政府距离	0.584^***	3	0.578^***	3	0.591^***	5
到市政府距离	0.662^***	2	0.695^***	2	0.735^***	3

黄河流域乡镇人口分布格局的演变特征及其驱动机制

Evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of population distribution patterns in townships along the Yellow River Basin

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