新疆县域耕地利用生态效率时空演变及驱动因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.343

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (7): 1385-1394.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.343 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025343

新疆县域耕地利用生态效率时空演变及驱动因素

王紫洋¹(), 夏咏¹(), 王福红¹^,², 丁宁¹, 吕毅¹, 苏泽琛³

¹ 新疆农业大学经济管理学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830052
² 兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院，甘肃兰州 730101
³ 新疆农业大学公共管理学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830052

收稿日期:2025-06-12 修回日期:2025-07-02 出版日期:2026-07-25 发布日期:2026-07-07
通讯作者: 夏咏（1971-），男，博士，教授，主要从事农业经济管理与区域经济等方面的研究. E-mail: x0991y@163.com
作者简介:王紫洋（2000-），女，博士研究生，主要从事农业资源经济研究. E-mail: wsqy113@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(24XTJ003);新疆维吾尔自治区西甜瓜产业技术体系项目(XJARS-06)

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in counties of Xinjiang

WANG Ziyang¹(), XIA Yong¹(), WANG Fuhong¹^,², DING Ning¹, LYU Yi¹, SU Zechen³

¹ College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
² School of Agriculture and Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730101,Gansu, China
³ College of Public Administration, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China

Received:2025-06-12 Revised:2025-07-02 Published:2026-07-25 Online:2026-07-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

耕地作为干旱区绿洲农业发展的基础性资源，明晰耕地利用生态效率演变规律对区域社会经济发展及生态保护具有重要意义。基于2014—2021年新疆85个县域耕地利用数据，采用超效率SBM模型、莫兰指数（Moran’s I）、固定效应模型等方法测度分析了新疆耕地利用生态效率时空演化规律及其驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 2014—2021年新疆耕地利用生态效率总体处于较低水平，但呈现波动中上升态势，增长了17.02%。（2）新疆耕地利用生态效率空间分布高-高集聚区呈现由“双核集聚”向“点状分散”的变化特征，低-低集聚区呈现集聚-扩散-集聚的变化特征。（3）水土协调比例、农业专业化服务、人均农业产值、机械化水平、地膜覆盖率等是影响新疆耕地利用生态效率变化的重要因素。未来新疆各县域耕地利用生态效率的提升应注重水资源、生产技术、经济水平等各个因素之间的协调，推动耕地产能的提升同时减少耕地利用的负向外部性。

关键词: 耕地利用生态效率, 时空演变, 驱动因素, 超效率SBM模型, 新疆

Abstract:

An understanding of the evolution of ecological efficiency in cultivated land use is a fundamental resource for the agricultural development of oases in arid regions and is important for regional socio-economic development and ecological conservation. Using cultivated land use data from 85 counties in Xinjiang, China, from 2014 to 2021, this study employed the Super-SBM model, Moran’s I, and fixed-effects model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of ecological efficiency in cultivated land use in Xinjiang. The findings indicate that (1) The ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Xinjiang was relatively low from 2014 to 2021 and showed a fluctuating upward trend, increasing by 17.02%. (2) The spatial distribution of high-high agglomeration areas in the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Xinjiang transitioned from a dual-core agglomeration to scattered distribution, while low-low agglomeration areas exhibited a pattern of initial agglomeration, followed by dispersion, and then re-agglomeration. (3) The rate of water and soil coordination, agricultural specialized services, per capita agricultural output value, mechanization level, and plastic film coverage rate are important factors that influence changes in the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Xinjiang. In the future, to enhance the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in various counties of Xinjiang, attention should be paid to the coordination among various factors such as water resources, production technology, and economic level, which promotes the increase of cultivated land productivity while it reduced the negative externalities of cultivated land use.

Key words: ecological efficiency of cultivated land use, spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, Super-SBM model, Xinjiang

王紫洋, 夏咏, 王福红, 丁宁, 吕毅, 苏泽琛. 新疆县域耕地利用生态效率时空演变及驱动因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1385-1394.

WANG Ziyang, XIA Yong, WANG Fuhong, DING Ning, LYU Yi, SU Zechen. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in counties of Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1385-1394.

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指标类别	指标名称	指标释义
投入指标	土地投入	耕地面积/hm²
	劳动力投入	从事农业人员/人
	农机投入	农业机械总动力/kW
	化肥投入	化肥施用折纯量/t
期望产出指标	农业产值	农业总产值/10⁴元
期望产出指标	粮食产量	粮食总产量/t
非期望产出指标	碳排放	耕地利用碳排放量/t

变量类型	解释变量	指标释义
自然资源禀赋	水土协调比例（X₁）	水域面积与耕地面积之比
农业科技创新	农业专业化服务（X₂）	专业化服务产值与农林牧渔业总产值之比
农业科技创新	机械化水平（X₃）	机械总动力与农作物播种面积之比/kW·hm^-2
农业基础设施	地膜覆盖率（X₄）	地膜覆盖面积与农作物播种面积之比
农业种植收益	人均农业产值（X₅）	农业总产值与乡村人口之比/10⁴元·人^-1

年份	全局Moran’s I	Z值
2014	0.076^**	2.276
2015	0.174^***	4.831
2016	0.122^***	3.484
2017	0.171^***	4.756
2018	0.013	0.679
2019	0.079^**	2.374
2020	0.100^**	2.942
2021	0.151^***	4.195

变量名称	系数	标准误差	T值	P值
水土协调比例	0.295	0.157	1.880	0.061
农业专业化服务	0.048	0.022	2.160	0.031
机械化水平	-0.129	0.062	-2.080	0.038
地膜覆盖率	-0.186	0.094	-1.970	0.049
人均农业产值	0.033	0.010	3.380	0.001
常数项	0.759	0.134	5.640	0.000
地区固定效应	控制
年份固定效应	控制
R²	0.116

新疆县域耕地利用生态效率时空演变及驱动因素

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in counties of Xinjiang

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