基于MaxEnt的青藏高原细石器人群时空分布演变研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.235

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原的极端环境对人类生存构成了巨大挑战，而古人类在青藏高原的生存一直是学界关注的焦点。细石器作为青藏高原分布最广且最具代表性的史前人类遗存之一，是史前高原人群的生产生活方式的重要体现物，有着特殊的研究价值与意义。以细石器主要分布的旧石器末期（15—6 ka BP）作为研究时期，以细石器遗址点作为分布点，结合环境因素，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）对青藏高原细石器人群的分布范围进行模拟预测。结果表明：（1） 15—14 ka BP：适生区主要分布于青藏高原东部边缘、四川西部及雅鲁藏布江河谷地带。（2） 14—12 ka BP：适生区主要沿河湟谷地至西藏北部（简称藏北）一线以及雅鲁藏布江上游地区分布。相较于前一阶段明显扩大，藏北、青海南部（简称青南）地区扩张最为显著。（3） 12—10 ka BP：除雅鲁藏布江上游及藏北地区适生区较为稳定外，其他地区的适生区均有大面积缩小，青南、河湟谷地地区尤为明显。（4） 10—8 ka BP：受全新世大暖期影响，青藏高原部分地区适生面积快速扩张，东北部尤为明显。但藏北地区的适生面积却有大幅度缩小。（5） 8—6 ka BP：除青海湖-河湟谷地外，其他地区的高度适生区均有较大程度萎缩，但总体分布范围变化不大。而低度适生区有一定的增长，超过10%。总的来说，各区域在不同时期变化较大，但总体适生区面积相对稳定。不同于以往对单个遗址点的分析探究，本研究采用最大熵模型进行多点位的综合系统探究，为青藏高原人类活动研究提供新思路。

关键词: 细石器, 最大熵模型, 人群分布, 时空演变, 青藏高原

Abstract:

Human survival has been challenged by the extreme environment of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and the existence of ancient humans on the plateau has long been a focal point of academic attention. As one of the most widely distributed and representative prehistoric human remains on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, microliths are considered important reflections of the production and living patterns of prehistoric plateau populations, holding special research value and significance. This study analyzes the late Paleolithic period (15—6 ka Before Present), when microliths are mainly distributed as the research period, uses microlithic site locations as distribution points, combines relevant environmental factors, and employs the MaxEnt model to dynamically simulate and determine the distribution range of microlithic populations on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The results reveal that (1) During 15—14 ka BP, suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the eastern margins of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, western Sichuan, and the Yarlung Zangbo River valley. (2) During 14—12 ka BP, suitable habitats were primarily distributed along the Huangshui Valley to the north Xizang line and the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, expanding significantly compared to the previous stage, with the most notable expansion occurring in north Xizang and southern Qinghai. (3) During 12—10 ka BP, except for the relatively stable suitable habitats in the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and north Xizang, suitable habitats in other regions shrank significantly, particularly in southern Qinghai and the Huangshui Valley. (4) During 10—8 ka BP, influenced by the Holocene climatic optimum, the suitable habitat area in the plateau expanded rapidly, particularly in the northeastern region. However, the suitable habitat area in north Xizang substantially decreased. (5) During 8—6 ka BP, except for the Qinghai Lake-Huangshui Valley area, highly suitable areas in other regions significantly shrank; however, the overall distribution range changed slightly. Meanwhile, the lowly suitable areas increased by >10%. In general, each region showed significant changes in different periods; however, the overall suitable habitat area remained relatively stable. Different from previous studies focusing on single sites, this study uses the MaxEnt model for a comprehensive and systematic exploration of multiple sites, offering new perspectives for research on human activities on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Key words: microlithic, MaxEnt model, population distribution, spatiotemporal evolution, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

何家豪, 侯光良, 敖民, 唐中华, 石洪飞. 基于MaxEnt的青藏高原细石器人群时空分布演变研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(5): 987-997.

HE Jiahao, HOU Guangliang, AO Min, TANG Zhonghua, SHI Hongfei. Spatiotemporal distribution evolution of the microlithic populations on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau based on MaxEnt[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 987-997.

图/表 8

图1

表1

本文所用遗址点信息"

遗址点	经度/°E	纬度/°N	距今年代/ka BP	方法	遗址点	经度/°E	纬度/°N	距今年代/ka BP	方法
马法木湖^[6]	81.91	30.83	全新世早期	类型学	各听^[26]	89.36	31.58	新旧石器过渡期	类型学
帕也真沟^[6]	79.99	30.83	全新世早期	类型学	参雄尕朔^[27]	96.02	33.48	8—7	AMS¹⁴C
戳错龙湖西岸^[6]	85.08	29.00	全新世早期	类型学	角考^[27]	95.95	33.76	8—7	类型学
定日苏热^[7]	80.98	30.69	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	尕琼^[27]	95.98	33.77	8—7	类型学
热角^[8]	79.06	33.50	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	西琼达^[27]	96.05	33.80	8—7	类型学
贡崩^[8]	87.21	29.32	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	古沃达^[27]	95.93	33.73	8—7	类型学
江西沟1号（JXG1）^[9]	100.35	36.57	14.6±0.4	AMS¹⁴C	垄^[28]	83.74	29.87	8.9—7.3	类型学
十火塘（10HTHS1）^[10]	100.87	36.86	12.4±0.2	AMS¹⁴C	嘎加拉地^[28]	83.75	29.87	8.9—7.3	类型学
尕海1号（GH1）^[10]	100.68	36.86	11.2±0.1	AMS¹⁴C	年扎合（NZH）^[29]	98.80	34.82	8.5	OSL
铜线3号（BWC3）^[10]	100.75	36.87	12.1±0.3	AMS¹⁴C	雅江上游诸石器点（UYT sites）^[29]	83.26	30.05	6.6	OSL
铜线4号（BWC4）^[10]	100.75	36.88	5.5±0.1	AMS¹⁴C	雅江上游诸石器点（UYT sites）^[29]	83.26	30.05	6.6	OSL
151（YWY1）^[10]	100.49	36.58	8.6±0.1	AMS¹⁴C	多格则^[30]	87.05	31.83	新旧石器过渡期	类型学
湖东种羊场（HZYC1）^[10]	100.87	36.66	13.0±0.2	AMS14C	扎布^[30]	81.00	33.33	新旧石器过渡期	类型学
拉乙亥^[11]	100.70	35.95	6.7±0.09	AMS¹⁴C	西大滩2号^[31]	94.15	35.69	9.2—6.4	AMS¹⁴C
野牛沟1号^[12]	94.25	35.88	7.5±0.04	AMS¹⁴C	羊曲西（YQX）^[32]	100.11	35.55	5.3±0.2	AMS¹⁴C
野牛沟2号^[12]	94.23	35.87	7.4±0.04	AMS¹⁴C	仲巴县北^[33]	84.03	29.78	≥4	类型学
尼阿底3号^[13]	88.80	31.47	11—10	AMS¹⁴C	冬给措纳3号^[34]	98.51	35.35	5.4—5.0	AMS¹⁴C
黑马河1号（HMH1）^[17]	99.77	36.76	13.1±0.2	AMS¹⁴C	雅曲雅土^[35]	89.35	33.00	新石器早期	类型学
黑马河3号（HMH3）^[17]	99.74	36.78	8.4±0.1	AMS¹⁴C	错尼^[35]	87.33	34.66	新石器早期	类型学
达玉台^[18]	100.71	35.96	新石器早期	类型学	东果滩^[36]	100.20	35.64	7.6—6.2	AMS¹⁴C
塘甘木大桥北^[19]	92.16	33.75	新石器早期	类型学	羊圈台^[37]	100.14	35.52	8—7	类型学
错那湖东南^[19]	91.52	32.00	新石器早期	类型学	扎陵湖^[37]	97.29	35.01	7.2	类型学
措则村^[19]	91.94	31.50	新石器早期	类型学	下大武1号	99.26	35.00	11.2±0.07	碳屑
色林错^[20]	89.23	31.51	13.6±0.2	AMS¹⁴C	黄藏寺	100.19	38.22	7.9±0.5	OSL
戈木错盆地^[21]	86.08	33.75	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	代曲（DQ）	96.47	33.86	9.3—8.1	AMS¹⁴C
炉霍虾拉沱^[22]	100.74	31.30	13.5±0.3	AMS¹⁴C	老大桥	95.83	34.03	11	OSL
珠洛勒^[23]	88.50	31.38	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	邦布	97.17	33.05	新旧石器过渡期	类型学
罗马松^[23]	88.55	31.56	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	江西沟2号	100.37	36.57	8.2—8.0，5.6—5.4	AMS¹⁴C
亚司^[23]	89.06	30.55	新旧石器过渡期	类型学	牛头山南	97.54	34.89	7.2	类型学
邱桑^[24]	90.96	29.97	13—12, 8.4—7.4	类型学	鄂陵湖	97.88	35.05	7.2	类型学
亚里^[25]	86.12	28.41	中石器或更晚	类型学	沙隆卡	102.00	36.01	8.5—7.3	OSL
羊圈^[25]	86.16	28.60	中石器或更晚	类型学

表1

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

图5

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符号	变量	符号	变量
bio1	年平均气温/℃	bio16	最潮湿季度降水量/mm
bio2	平均昼夜范围	bio16	最潮湿季度降水量/mm
bio3	等温指数	bio17	最干旱季度降水量/mm
bio4	温度季节性指数（标准偏差×100%）	bio17	最干旱季度降水量/mm
bio4	温度季节性指数（标准偏差×100%）	bio18	最热季度降水量/mm
bio5	最热月份最高温度/℃	bio18	最热季度降水量/mm
bio6	最冷月份最高温度/℃	bio19	最冷季度降水量/mm
bio7	温度年范围（bio5-bio6）/℃	bio19	最冷季度降水量/mm
bio8	最潮湿地区平均温度/℃	river distance	距河流距离/km
bio9	最干旱地区平均温度/℃	FVC	植被覆盖度
bio10	最热季度平均温度/℃	soil type	土壤类型
bio11	最冷季度平均温度/℃	land-use type	土地类型
bio12	年降水量/mm	altitude	海拔/m
bio13	最湿润月份降水量/mm	slope	坡度/(°)
bio14	最干旱月份降水量/mm	slope orientation	坡向
bio15	降水季节性变异系数

距今年代/ka BP	高度适生区	中度适生区	低度适生区	不适生区
15—14	2.021	8.994	15.725	219.419
14—12	15.070	30.051	62.156	138.856
12—10	11.686	21.978	56.824	155.661
10—8	12.325	24.268	53.241	156.293
8—6	6.334	28.324	81.712	129.760